Washington/Paris/Berlin (12/8 – 28.57).

Today is the twenty-anniversary of the sinking of the Kursk. A painful experience. A true shocker. All hands are lost, the shortcomings of the Russian system fully exposed. But today is another experience. Kursk, the region. After ceremonial pageantry by the military commander, it is clear the great Red Army was ambushed.

Hoodwinked by the Ukrainians who pulled off a surprise attack, a classic attack which has all the elements of a successful deception operation. Overwhelming strength, speed and first and foremost silence. Deception played a role keeping the Russian pre-occupied. Daily the news a filled of the exchanges between the Ukrainian defenders and the Russian occupation force.

The attention was given to the aging Admiral Kuznetsov long target of the security services of the Ukraine. In an audacious caper matching a Hollywood production the wily chief of the Intelligence Service Kyrylo Budanov the ship was targeted by sabotage teams of the Ukraine. Whereas Budanov’s boys of misfits drawn the attention of the Russians away from the home front the planning for the attack was carried out.

Then the surprise attack came.

The Ukrainian defenders breaking through the lines of Russian occupation forces, the Russians fumbled, reserves were rushed to the front but to no prevail. Ambushes were set up, forward observers guided cluster ammunition against convoys driving Russian occupation forces into retreat.

Troves of occupation forces are surrendering to the Ukrainian defenders. Social media is full of videos Russian occupation forces surrendering. Drones are used to instruct the surrender.

Surrender leaflets are circulating on the internet. Estimates state approximately 3,000 prisoners were taken.

Inside the liberated towns the situation is desperate, residents feel abandoned, many shops are looted by the Russian occupiers and residents feel abandoned. Vladimir Putin holding his security briefing annoyed with the presenter but stated the area will be liberated.

Ukraine’s relentless push into Russian territory, particularly in the Kursk region, has forced Moscow to employ extreme measures. Ukrainian forces have made significant inroads into the Kursk region, causing significant distress within the Russian military.

Ukrainian troops managed to penetrate Russian positions by over 30 kilometers, creating significant disruption among Russian forces.

The chaos led to varied responses from Russian units—some offered staunch resistance while others either deserted or surrendered. Among the latter were crews operating sophisticated T-80BWM tanks.

Russia has lost at least 156 T-80BWM tanks, a figure confirmed by video and photographic evidence collected by Oryxspioenkop. The T-80BWM’s modern features include an upgraded two-layer reactive Armor called Relikt, which provides enhanced protection against advanced tandem warhead munitions and FPV drones.

A unique characteristic of the T-80BWM is its gas turbine engine, offering superior responsiveness compared to traditional diesel engines. This feature has earned it the nickname “flying tank” in Russia due to its rapid acceleration and high performance.

The Russian army has reportedly begun withdrawing convoys, suffering substantial losses in both equipment and personnel. At least 16,000 have been evacuated.

It is clear from the language that the Russian occupying force will strike back. Never since 1941 has Russian territory occupied. And the outcome is unclear for the moment.

During the meeting, Putin reiterated his stance against engaging in dialogue with Ukraine, citing the ongoing attacks on civilian populations.

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Kiev (8/6 – 17).          

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense’s announcement about the personnel losses suffered by Moscow in May underscores the toll the conflict has taken on the Russian side.

The reported figure of 38,940 personnel losses for Moscow as stated by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, indicates a significant escalation in the conflict’s intensity. Such a high monthly casualty count underscores the severity of the situation and the toll it’s taking on the Russian side.

Ellie Cook’s report in Newsweek highlights a critical aspect of conflict reporting the difficulty in accurately determining battlefield casualties. Analysts often caution against relying solely on figures provided by involved parties due to the potential for inaccuracies. Putin commented in a rare occasion on the death toll.

The UK Ministry of Defense’s estimate of 500,000 killed and wounded Russian personnel in Ukraine since the start of the war is a significant figure that aligns closely with Ukrainian estimates.

The Ukrainian General Staff’s report of 507,650 personnel losses since the beginning of the war underscores the significant toll the conflict has taken on Russian forces. The UK Ministry of Defense’s statement about the high level of casualties in May, with an average of over 1,200 Russian personnel per day, further emphasizes the intensity of the fighting during that period.

The record-high losses experienced by Russia, including the highest single daily loss figure of the entire war, are attributed to Moscow’s commitment to an attritional style of warfare. So called ‘meat grinder’ attacks, make up the number of mounting losses for the Russians.

The UK Ministry of Defence’s assessment highlights significant challenges facing Russian forces, including limitations in training and tactics. The report suggests that many Russian troops received only limited training.

Dissent within Russian society is growing. In a repressive system these forces are supressed. Observers warn that the army leaders, purged by Putin, could emerge as a force. Tactics in use are out of the Russian Red Army manuals. So is training and strategy.

Source: Internet

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Kiev (15/5 – 60).         

Spokesperson for the Ukrainian Armed Forces did not comment of the formation of new tank brigades. The new brigades are equipped with Leopard 2 and Bradley personnel carriers. The exact strength is not disclosed but it will be envisioned the new brigades are deploying the various hotspot.

Well informed sources within the ministry of defense did not comment on the deployment. “We want to avoid speculation”, said a Colonel of the HUR (the military intelligence department).

In the NATO context, the Ukrainian army is a considerable force. Wedged in between the United States, Poland, Turkey (or Türkiye as it is colloquially called) the United Kingdom, the Ukraine is in the top five of NATO generating forces.

Without being an active member of NATO, the Russian war of aggression took a risk to take on NATO. The “security buffer” of NATO surrounding the Russian Federation is an irrational fear of the old Soviet style. The Russians have only contributed to the unification of NATO and the rearmament of Europe.

Besides getting new weapon systems online the EU is reconstituting conscription. Although whispered in the hallways of power, conscription is the new normal.

NATO has as of May 2024, NATO’s combined militaries have around 3.5 million personnel, including troops and civilians. This number has increased over time, with 3.37 million personnel in 2023 and 3.01 million in 2016. The United States had the largest number of active military personnel in NATO with almost 1.33 million men under arms.

Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark stand up forces are about 139,600 with reserve forces drawn up to a million men.

As of April 2024, NATO allies had 12,408 main battle tanks in addition to 1,004,844 armored vehicles and other ground combat vehicles. Türkiye and Greece have the highest number of tanks besides the United States. 2,231 and 1,365 tanks can be fielded by the two NATO states.

NATO allies and partner countries have delivered more than 98% of the combat vehicles promised to Ukraine during Russia’s invasion and war, the military alliance’s chief said Thursday, giving Kyiv a bigger punch as it contemplates launching a counteroffensive.

Ukraine’s allies have sent “vast amounts of ammunition” and trained and equipped more than nine new Ukrainian brigades, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said.

More than 30,000 troops are estimated to make up the new brigades. Some NATO partner countries, such as Sweden and Australia, have also provided armored vehicles.

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