Many have taken out loans with floating rates, which creates a risk of widespread bankruptcies.

Marina Malakhatko, a senior director at the consulting firm CORE.XP, told the Russian media outlet Kommersant that at least 200 shopping malls will be at risk of bankruptcy in 2025. She said some owners are already looking to sell their assets.

Debt servicing has become even tougher after Russia‘s Central Bank was forced to hike interest rates to 21 percent – the highest level in over 20 years.

The Union of Shopping Centres (STTs) estimates that half of the country’s shopping centres are facing high debt burdens.

Many have taken out loans with floating rates, which creates a risk of widespread bankruptcies.

Marina Malakhatko, a senior director at the consulting firm CORE.XP, told the Russian media outlet Kommersant that at least 200 shopping malls will be at risk of bankruptcy in 2025. She said some owners are already looking to sell their assets.

Debt servicing has become even tougher after Russia‘s Central Bank was forced to hike interest rates to 21 percent – the highest level in over 20 years.

Russians have also faced tax increases, as the Kremlin seeks to raise more money to fund its war in Ukraine.

Government spending on national defence is expected to rise to $120 billion (£93bn this year from $75 billion (£58bn) in 2023.

In the summer Putin signed off on a package of tax rises worth almost $30 billion (£23bn), tapping workers and companies to raise more funds for his Ukraine offensive.

Source

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The escalation of geopolitical tensions linked to the Ukrainian crisis has highlighted two main opposing camps of countries — an Alliance of Democracies on one side and a Group of Authoritarian Regimes on the other. A number of countries have resisted choosing sides, however, as they strive to balance their national interests with international developments while simultaneously advocating the need to maintain peaceful diplomacy and global connections.

While the number of these so-called “in-between” countries abound (particularly in Latin America, Africa, and South and Central Asia), only a few of them have upheld an outspoken commitment to the principles of multilateralism and non-violence. One of these is Kazakhstan, which, through its rhetoric and actions, has consistently demonstrated a commitment to international principles enshrined in the UN Charter despite severe challenges to the country’s economy and stability brought on by recent global developments. Impressively, Kazakhstan’s strong compliance with economic sanctions imposed by Western countries against Russia has stood the test of time.

Amid a slew of destabilizing events including a violent coup attempt in January 2022 and an ongoing international crisis embroiling its neighbor Russia, Kazakhstan has taken important steps towards strengthening democracy and stability at home such as limiting presidential powers, fighting oligopolies and recovering assets stolen from the country by cronies of the old regime. Kazakhstan has also maintained its commitments to Ukraine’s territorial integrity and has contributed to energy and food security in Europe.

Last year, in a public discussion with Vladimir Putin at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, President Tokayev made it very clear that his country remained committed to the UN principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity. “Kazakhstan recognizes neither Taiwan, nor Kosovo, nor South Ossetia and Abkhazia. This principle will be applied to quasi-state entities, which, in our opinion, are Luhansk and Donetsk,” the President sad. Such position of Kazakhstan has been vocal and proved by consistency in voting pattern on UN Ukraine-related resolutions.

Kazakhstan has taken important steps towards strengthening democracy and stability at home, such as limiting presidential powers, fighting oligopolies and recovering assets stolen from the country by cronies of the old regime.

Still, such persistent dedication to international democratic principles (by a relatively weaker country squeezed in a geopolitical triangle with two much-stronger neighbors, i.e. China and Russia) has not been enough to alter a seemingly entrenched negative opinion of Kazakhstan. With an especially strong viewpoint particularly in the West, under the banner of “human rights”, oligarchs can bait international NGOs and the media into believing their proxy political figures are victims of authoritarian abuse. When every decision taken by Kazakhstan courts against these local proxies is criticized, their oligarchic overlords gain enormous leverage at the expense of damaging Kazakhstan’s international credibility and reputation, as well as undermining its fledgling process of democracy building.

One such case involves a Kazakhstani citizen Zhanbolat Mamai, who was sentenced in September 2017 to a three-year suspended sentence for the theft and embezzlement of funds. Considered an independent journalist and a political activist, Mamai allegedly violated Kazakhstan’s law again and has been charged for insulting a government representative (under Kazakhstan’s Criminal Code, Article 378), spreading false information (under Article 274), and organizing illegal protests (under Article 488). Amnesty International has called this decision an “act of retribution” by the government. However, Amnesty’s coverage of the Mamai case tells only half the story.

Charged with illegal actions, Mamai has subsequently positioned himself as a persecuted human rights defender. He has received financial and political support from Mukhtar Ablyazov, who stole billions of dollars from a Kazakhstan bank and then fled the country. Ablyazov has already lost various court cases in the United States, Great Britain and France. Mamai has allegedly used Ablyazov’s money to run an unregistered political party called the Democratic Party of Kazakhstan.

Nonetheless, the above facets of the Mamai case are sometimes not taken into consideration by human rights organizations.

It is also worth noting that Mamai is not in prison (as stipulated by Articles 378 and 274) but has instead received a suspended sentence.

The fact that not all sides are taken into consideration is now facing a backlash in Kazakhstan. Local NGOs are questioning whether the motivations behind attacking Kazakhstan over these high[1]profile cases are truly about human rights. In the meantime, the government is implementing reforms to address the everyday concerns of Kazakhstani people, including protecting their social welfare, healthcare and financial prospects.

The difficult balancing act that Kazakhstan’s government is trying to manage in both its international and domestic affairs faces many challenges. But credit should be given where it’s due. In this environment, Western NGOs and media falling prey to tactics by the beneficiaries of the old Kazakhstan regime only hurt the country’s nascent democratization process and its efforts to break from authoritarianism and corruption still widespread elsewhere in Central Asia.

Luc Rodehefer is a foreign policy expert and a freelance financial analyst. A former banker, he is currently based in France and covers political and economic relations between the EU and emerging markets.

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Bomb shelters across Russia are undergoing systematic inspections and repairs following a Kremlin order to upgrade the country’s crumbling Soviet-era infrastructure, according to current and former officials who spoke to The Moscow Times. 

Many of Russia’s thousands of bunkers, reinforced cellars and other safe hideouts have been mothballed for decades. But as the war in Ukraine drags on, local authorities appear to be spending hundreds of millions of rubles to again make them fit for habitation. 

“A decision to inspect the network of bomb shelters was made by the government in the spring,” said one Russian official, citing knowledge of government meetings that have taken place on the subject. 

“The command for a large-scale inspection and to put things right was given by the Emergency Situations Ministry, the Defense Ministry and [other] civilian ministries.”

The overhaul of the country’s bomb shelter network comes against the backdrop of Kremlin nuclear saber-rattling and a growing militarization of daily life as the fighting in Ukraine creeps toward Russia’s heartland regions. 

In particular, three attacks on air bases hundreds of kilometers inside Russia’s borders in December were attributed to Ukrainian drones. In line with its policy on attacks inside Russia, Kyiv has not confirmed that it was involved. 

While Russian officials have not publicly announced a national drive to upgrade bomb shelters, efforts by local authorities to overhaul the country’s civil defense network have been widely reported for months. 

The Moscow Times spoke with four current and former Russian officials who confirmed — for the first time — that upgrades were taking place on orders from the government in Moscow. 

The checks and repairs began after the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and will continue into this year, according to the current Russian official, who requested anonymity to speak freely.

While the Kremlin issued a decree ordering some regions in western Russia to prepare for possible military conflict under a heightened “alert” level in October, open-source data and The Moscow Times’ sources suggest that this process — to differing extents — is actually happening all over the country.  

For example, local authorities in the southern Krasnodar region will reportedly spend over 6 million rubles ($260,000) on bomb shelters this year, while 50 million rubles ($712,000) will be spent in Nizhny Novgorod and almost a million rubles ($14,240) in the city of Ryazan.  

The authorities in Kazan, on the Volga River, said last month that about 30% of the city’s bomb shelters were not in a fit state to house people. Instead, officials said they will determine if the city’s metro system can serve as a bomb shelter. 

The existence of a directive from Moscow to upgrade bomb shelters was confirmed to The Moscow Times by a senior official in the administration of one of Russia’s Far East regions, more than 7,000 kilometers from frontlines in Ukraine. 

“An order was given from Moscow to carry out these works everywhere — inspection and repair,” said the official, who requested anonymity to discuss the issue.

The Kremlin’s problem, however, is that most of the country’s bomb shelters, which are supposed to be maintained by local authorities, have been left in a state of disrepair or abandoned since the end of the Soviet Union. 

Local authorities appear to be trying rapidly to address some of these issues. 

“After mobilization, [upgrading bomb shelters] looks like a necessary measure and an expression of concern on behalf of the state toward ordinary people,” said Oleg Ignatov, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group NGO.

Political analyst Abbas Gallyamov said that the efforts to upgrade bomb shelters were also being driven by local officials eager to impress their superiors. 

“Every bureaucrat is trying to conform to the agenda as they see it,” Gallyamov, a former speechwriter for President Vladimir Putin, told The Moscow Times.

“It’s a way of shielding oneself from possible claims from the big bosses: ‘Why aren’t you prepared? Can’t you see what’s going on?!’” 

Hundreds of government tenders appear on the official portal for tenders, Zakupki.gov.ru, seeking companies to bid for bomb shelter upgrade contracts in regions all over the country. 

Tenders include those for ventilation repair, waterproofing, door replacement, and air filter and lighting installation.

In one example, a 3.8-million-ruble ($54,100) tender for waterproofing work on a bomb shelter in Samara region was listed in November. 

“No one needed them [bomb shelters] after the collapse of the Soviet Union. But now, due to the situation on the frontlines, the Kremlin has ordered for everything to be sorted out,” an official in one western Russian region told The Moscow Times.

One conclusion drawn from the nationwide inspections has apparently been that the country lacks enough bomb shelters to serve its current population. 

Officials in the northern city of Petrozavodsk said last month that public bomb shelters could only house one-eighth of the city’s residents. 

This deficit may, in part, be due to many Soviet-built bomb shelters having been sold or rented out on the private market. 

A renovated Cold War-era bunker with pink walls and vintage chandeliers was put up for sale in Petrozavodsk for 15 million rubles ($216,000) at the end of last year. And bomb shelters were being leased by the authorities in the Far East port city of Vladivostok in November, according to local media reports. 

In some cases, such deals have been deemed illegal. 

A Perm city court in the Ural Mountains opened a criminal case last summer against a businessman for using a bomb shelter as a warehouse and not equipping it with airtight doors, air filters and a supply of water, local media reported.

One former official who spoke to The Moscow Times linked the state’s newfound interest in bomb shelters to heightened fears of nuclear war following Putin’s order to put Russia’s nuclear forces on “high alert” at the end of February. 

“[The ‘high alert’] is just the tip of the iceberg. Bomb shelters and other civil defense requirements are the invisible part of the iceberg,” said the retired official, who cited knowledge of meetings on the subject. 

At the same time, the upgrades to bomb shelters all over the country appear to be just one aspect of the growing militarization of Russian society since the start of the Ukraine war. This militarization has also been evident in the mobilization of hundreds of thousands of men to serve in the Armed Forces as well as the installation of air-defense systems in central Moscow. 

In some cases, apparently seeking to head off panic, local authorities have sought to downplay the bomb shelter renovations. 

Officials in the Saratov region, hundreds of miles from the frontlines in Ukraine, began euphemistically referring to bomb shelters as “deep lodgings” in December.  

But there was no hiding the installation this week of signs directing locals to bomb shelters in the Ural Mountains city of Nizhny Tagil. 

“It’s becoming scary to live,” local user Oksana Balina wrote on social network VKontakte underneath a post about the development. 

Source : The Moscow Times

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