Terrorism Archives · Tashkent Citizen https://tashkentcitizen.com/tag/terrorism/ Human Interest in the Balance Fri, 14 Jun 2024 16:35:44 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.6.2 https://tashkentcitizen.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/cropped-Tashkent-Citizen-Favico-32x32.png Terrorism Archives · Tashkent Citizen https://tashkentcitizen.com/tag/terrorism/ 32 32 Tajikistan: Who Killed the Pamiris? https://tashkentcitizen.com/tajikistan-who-killed-the-pamiris/ Fri, 14 Jun 2024 16:35:38 +0000 https://tashkentcitizen.com/?p=6029 Dubai/Astana (10 June – 60). The Pamiris are an ethnic minority group in Tajikistan, culturally distinct from the…

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Dubai/Astana (10 June – 60). The Pamiris are an ethnic minority group in Tajikistan, culturally distinct from the majority Tajik population. They have faced persecution and discrimination in their mountain homeland bordering Afghanistan that some experts say amounts to ethnic cleansing and even genocide. One of the lead persecutors is Ministry of Internal Affairs “Maj. Gen.” Shorukh Syedzada, a former football team manager with no law enforcement experience and a confidante of the president’s son and heir designate.

The Pamiris continue to be marginalized and oppressed by the authorities. As a result, many Pamiris have been forced to flee their homeland in search of safety and refuge, facing the risk of imprisonment or even death if they remain.  Tajikistan’s notorious jails are filled with thousands of Pamiri men and youth, and even women, arrested on trumped up charges by Syedzada who heads the Criminal Investigation Department at the ministry, and responsible for joint operations with the Russian, Turkish, Polish and German intelligence to forcefully detain and return to Tajikistan individuals charged with “terrorism.”

Despite their plight, the Pamiri community remains little-known to the outside world, making it challenging for them to garner support or recognition for their struggles.  The MIA actively works for foreign security services, including those of China, Russia, and Europe, to depict Pamiri civil society leaders as “gangsters” and “terrorists,” justifying their arrests, and killings.

Despite the undeniable existence of the Pamiri community as a distinct ethnic minority in Tajikistan, the denial of their identity by Tajikistan’s justice minister is deeply concerning.

This denial not only perpetuates the marginalization and discrimination faced by the Pamiris but also hinders efforts to address their plight and ensure their rights are protected.

The violent suppression of Pamiri peaceful protests in towns like Rushan and Khorog by Tajik authorities in May 2022, that resulted in the torture and killings of dozens, and imprisonment of hundreds,underscores the ongoing challenges faced by the Pamiri people, driving many to flee their homeland in search of safety and refuge. The journey to find asylum is fraught with hardship and danger, with many experiencing mistreatment and facing significant barriers to secure protection in other countries.

Left to Right:  GKNB Chairman Saymumin Yatimov, Minister of Internal Affairs Ramazon Rahimzoda, Rusam Emomali – son of the president, Shorukh Syedzada, President Rahmon.

Human rights organizations are calling on the international community to recognize and address the persecution faced by the Pamiris, advocating for their rights and providing support to those who have been forced to flee their homes to countries like Germany, Poland and Turkey. Pamiri organizations in Europe say that it is essential to ensure that they are afforded the protections guaranteed under international law, including the right to seek asylum without fear of reprisal or mistreatment.

The reported cases of disappearances of Tajik citizens from Russia and Turkey raise serious concerns about the safety and rights of individuals within the Pamiri community and beyond. Recently, Pamiris and non-Pamiri Tajiks have been forcefully deported from Germany, Poland, Russia, and Turkey back to Tajikistan, where, according to sources, they face immediate torture by both the Ministry of Internal Affairs as well as the GKNB intelligence service.  Survivors of the tortures report that top MIA and GKNB officers, including Syedzada and GKNB chairman Saymumin Yatimov, participate in the interrogations, and directly threaten prisoners.

Pamiri exile leaders, speaking on condition of anonymity, urge Western governments to provide support and protection to those at risk of persecution, including offering avenues for asylum and resettlement for those who seek refuge from such oppressive conditions in Tajikistan. Additionally, they call for diplomatic pressure to be exerted on Tajikistan to respect the rights and freedoms of all its citizens, regardless of their ethnicity or political affiliations.

‘We all want to go home’

Pamiri witnesses who escaped to the West paint a harrowing picture of the challenges faced they faced as they fled persecution in Tajikistan.

One Pamiri’s journey to freedom was marked by violence and mistreatment at the hands of border guards in multiple countries, where he was threatened with forceful return to his homeland, thus underscoring the desperation and danger faced by those seeking refuge. Despite reaching Germany, he continues to live in fear of extradition back to Tajikistan, where he risks torture and dreadful prison conditions.

Another Pamiri refugee witness has described how his family was torn apart by the consequences of their involvement in the peaceful 2022 Khorog protests. The imprisonment of his brother for “unlawful social media activity” and the subsequent death of their father underlines the devastating toll of persecution on individuals and families within the Pamiri community. His mother’s plight, unable to visit her imprisoned son and grieving the loss of her husband, highlights the profound impact of state-sponsored persecution on the lives of innocent civilians.

While there has been some international criticism of Tajikistan’s actions, Pamiri civil society leaders say that much more needs to be done to hold the authorities accountable and to ensure the protection of Pamiri rights. They believe that it is essential that Tajikistan’s international trade partners and diplomatic allies prioritize the issue of Pamiri persecution in their engagements with the country, pushing for recognition of the Pamiri community’s civil rights – including the freedom of religion and the use of their native languages — and advocating for an end to repression and discrimination.

In the interim, the Pamiri leaders in exile call for neighbouring countries like Russia to provide support and refuge to those fleeing Tajikistan in search of safety. They note that EU member states, as well as countries such as the US, have a responsibility to recognize the plight of the Pamiri minority and offer asylum to those unable to live in their homeland without fear of persecution.

Ultimately, the Pamiri leaders believe that the fundamental long-term goal must be to persuade the Tajikistan authorities to recognize the existence of the Pamiris, cease their repression, and grant them equal rights and protections under the law. Only through concerted international pressure and solidarity can meaningful change be achieved for the Pamiri community and other marginalized groups in Tajikistan.

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Hamas No. 3 Killed in Beirut Blast https://tashkentcitizen.com/hamas-no-3-killed-in-beirut-blast/ Wed, 03 Jan 2024 10:14:43 +0000 https://tashkentcitizen.com/?p=5793 Latest Developments The third-most senior Hamas figure, Saleh al-Arouri, was killed on January 2 in a Beirut blast that Lebanese…

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Latest Developments

The third-most senior Hamas figure, Saleh al-Arouri, was killed on January 2 in a Beirut blast that Lebanese authorities blamed on Israel. Arouri was among at least four people who died in an Israeli drone strike on a Hamas media office in the southern Dahiyeh suburb of the Lebanese capital, a Hezbollah stronghold, authorities said. Israeli officials had no immediate comment.

After Yahya Sinwar and Ismail Haniyeh, Arouri was the top-ranked Hamas official. He pursued an especially aggressive Palestinian terrorism strategy, with a focus on the West Bank, where he ordered the 2014 abduction and murder of three Israeli teenagers, sparking a Gaza war. After a period of being headquartered in Turkey, Arouri relocated to Lebanon, where he spearheaded Hamas coordination with Hezbollah and their shared Iranian patron.

Expert Analysis

“Israel has openly vowed to take the Gaza war to all leaders of Hamas, no matter where they are. That Arouri apparently thought he might be immune in the Hezbollah heartland suggests a major miscalculation on the part of Hamas. The question now is how Hezbollah will calculate the risks of stepping up its own attacks on Israel in retaliation.” — Mark Dubowitz, FDD CEO

“Israel sent a message to all terror allies of Iran that no matter where they hide, they will never be secure. Whether Hamas leaders reside in Qatar, Turkey, Lebanon, or another country, they should assume their days are numbered. Hezbollah’s leadership must also factor this escalation into the group’s next move.” — Richard Goldberg, FDD Senior Advisor

“The elimination of Saleh al-Arouri stands as a significant blow to Hamas and a considerable victory for Israel in its current war against Palestinian terrorist groups. Nevertheless, it is important to recognize that this accomplishment is merely one of many goals Israel must achieve in order to dismantle Hamas and its partners.” — Joe Truzman, Research Analyst at FDD’s Long War Journal

Source: FDD

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The Price of War? https://tashkentcitizen.com/the-price-of-war/ Sat, 16 Dec 2023 22:56:48 +0000 https://tashkentcitizen.com/?p=5724 Brussels (3/12) Governments may be doing great while the people suffer. Bombing of the Nordstream 2 pipeline, carrying…

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Brussels (3/12)

Governments may be doing great while the people suffer. Bombing of the Nordstream 2 pipeline, carrying cheap Russian natural gas to industry and consumers in Europe, is exerting a cascading effect on companies and employment, eventually to be reflected in rising places and sharpening inflation. 

Russia is steadily experiencing price increases for a variety of goods and services, Russian media report. Is there obviously not a link to the sanctions placed on Russia and the seizure of Russian funds and savings abroad? Punishment for Russia’s “Special Military Operation” to purportedly protect Russian-speaking citizens in eastern Ukraine from state terrorism and neo-Nazis – and the firm conviction that the attempt by NATO to continue its “containment” and “encirclement” of Russia has become an existential matter: President Putin has vowed that Ukraine, traditionally neutral, will never be allowed to join NATO. 

Those with a historical bent might smile, seeing this as an echo of the rise to power of Fidel Castro, his embrace of communism, and the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, which nearly started World War III. Nuclear weapons are being waved in warning once again, as they were 60 years ago. “History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes.”

Now the average Russian, far from the battlefield, is beginning to feel the effects of the pressure being brought by western countries on their lives. Russian media report that producers of street fast food warn of a possible increase in the average price of shawarma up to 300 rubles ($2.36) and a 10-15% rise in the price of pizza and burgers, the result of an increase in selling prices of products such as meat, vegetables, fruit and eggs.

Well, considering how Russia imported $169 million worth of fertilizers, mainly from Belarus, Kazakhstan, Spain, Belgium, and Lithuania In 2021, this is no surprise. With the probable exception of the first two of those countries, exports of fertilizer have been halted. 

As the Russian government has introduced policies to increase the availability and use of pesticides in crop production, including increased imports, that will also drive prices upward; according to a report by Deutsche Welt, Russia has been increasing its domestic food production in recent years, with the aim of becoming self-sufficient, with new construction of manufacturing plants, and subsidies to farms for purchasing pesticides.

Gadgets are also up: iPhone prices rose an average of 32% in the first half of the year, and another 20% increase is expected by the end of the year. Prices of Samsung, Xiaomi and Readme products are also rising significantly. 

Tourism has become pricier: tour operators warn of a possible 10-30% price increase for winter vacations to popular destinations such as Egypt, UAE, Thailand, Maldives and Cuba. The cost of tours in Russia may also increase by 15% or more. Is this simply price-gouging, using the sanctions as an excuse, or are there other factors driving up prices?

That air travel has become more expensive is not surprising: Russian airlines prefer European or American jetliners, for obvious reasons, and now they find to their chagrin that they cannot buy spare parts for these maintenance-intensive airplanes directly, instead having to import on the sly through dummy companies, with a roundabout route through the Middle East or the PRC – which would naturally add on to already high prices.

Gas, automobiles and real estate has also been reported to have soared in price, bearing in mind that Russians are historically accustomed to shortages and long lineups for consumer goods.

2022 saw “Black Friday” – style fistfights and struggles for – get ready for it – SUGAR! Yep, the infamous “sugar wars” followed a shortage of sugar in Russia. That may well have been succeeded in turn by a miraculous recovery of citizens’ health – Russians historically being an unhealthy sort of folk, just like their enemies the Americans – since sugar can wreak damage on the body. Not just on teeth either: cancer tumors are said to love the taste of sugar, and feed on it merrily.

The above report should by the way be considered judiciously, as it came from one “Anton Gerashchenko” who describes himself as a “Ukrainian patriot. Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. Founder of the Institute of the Future. Official enemy of Russian propaganda”. Not the most objective sort of fellow, one would imagine.

OLD SOVIET JOKE ALERT!

(This is apropos to the subject at hand.)

The august Leonid Brezhnev, General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union from 1964 until his death in 1982, and Chairman of the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet, was scheduled for a “photo-op” visit to a Moscow kindergarten.

Chairman Brezhnev, smiling broadly, greeted the sea of children’s faces and intoned “So very happy to see so many of you wonderful children.

“We are happy because in Russia the children wear beautiful clothes, have fine, delicious food to eat and lots of exciting toys to play with –”

His talk was cut short as a little girl in the front row suddenly started wailing, burst into tears and stomped her little feet.

Brezhnev looked shocked and the teachers, flustered, gathered around and shouted “Natasha! Natasha! What is the matter with you?”

Natasha, bawling: “I want to go to Russia!”

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Tajikistan to Study France’s Human Rights Freedom, Terrorism Prevention https://tashkentcitizen.com/tajikistan-to-study-frances-human-rights-freedom-terrorism-prevention/ Sun, 10 Dec 2023 03:48:21 +0000 https://tashkentcitizen.com/?p=5703 London (28/11 – 58) Tajikistan’s human rights record continues to deteriorate amid an increased crackdown on freedom of…

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London (28/11 – 58)

Tajikistan’s human rights record continues to deteriorate amid an increased crackdown on freedom of expression and the political opposition, as well as the targeting of independent lawyers, journalists, and family members of opposition activists abroad. Freedom of assembly is severely curtailed with any local protests, such as a series of protests in the Gorno-Badakhshan autonomous region (GBAO), violently quashed. 

The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Programme Office in Dushanbe, the OSCE Transnational Threats Department, and the Permanent Representation of France to the OSCE organized a study visit to Paris for government officials from Tajikistan, familiarizing them with France’s approach to the protection of soft targets from terrorist attacks.

The study visit serves as a basis for further OSCE capacity-building and technical support to Tajikistan on soft targets protection, with a focus on preventing terrorist threats while upholding respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms. The study visit takes place alongside recent OSCE and partner activities in the field of soft targets protection, including the 2023 Workshop to Raise Awareness and Launch the Republic of Tajikistan’s Roadmap on Countering Terrorist Threats against Vulnerable Targets and a 2022 Central Asia-focused regional workshop on vulnerable targets protection from terrorist attacks. The study is within the framework of the OSCE Dushanbe’s office unified budget project “Supporting Tajikistan’s National Strategy and Action Plan on Countering Terrorism and Violent Extremism for 2021-2025”, which seeks to assist in implementing its counter-terrorism commitments in line with pertinent OSCE standards and principles.

During the study visit, held from 20 to 22 November 2023, officials from Tajikistan met with representatives of the city of Paris and the national Government. They discussed the design of emergency plans in public spaces, including schools, hospitals, religious sites and shopping centres. They also discussed threat analysis procedures, the evolution of legislative frameworks on terrorism prevention, human rights-compliant approaches to the protection of public spaces and public engagement.

“France’s experience in the fight against terrorism in general, and in particular on protecting vulnerable targets in a terrorism context can be very beneficial for further enhancing our national efforts in this area. It was a fruitful and informative study visit,” said Zafar Safaralizoda, Deputy Head of the Directorate on Human Rights Guarantees under the Presidential Office and Head of the delegation of Tajikistan on this study visit.

“One of the OSCE’s greatest strengths is the expertise and experience of its participating States and their willingness to share with one another. We thank the Government of France for welcoming the delegation of Tajikistan in their country and making available the expertise necessary to truly grasp how schools, public spaces, houses of worship and other soft targets are protected from terrorist attacks,” said Jukka Tuononen, Head of the Politico-Military Department and Officer-in-Charge of the OSCE Programme in Dushanbe.

Tajikistan government continue to repress and violate human rights within in the country, especially in the GBAO. Authorities’ use of prison and torture to obtain confessions remains a serious concern. The government blocks access to various websites that post information critical of the government and harasses human rights groups.

Freedom of religion and belief is severely limited. Lesbians, gays, bisexuals, and transgender people are subjected to wide-ranging discrimination and homophobia. Domestic violence against women is a serious problem, despite the adoption of a law in 2013 that provided some human rights protections in this area. Border conflicts with Kyrgyzstan have resulted in many deaths and serious human rights violations.

The confrontation between the residents of GBAO, who are Pamiris, and the official authorities of Tajikistan has been ongoing since 2012. In 2018, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon authorized the use of the regular army to suppress protests in the autonomy. Since then, acts of civil disobedience have periodically occurred in Gorno-Badakhshan, which the security forces have harshly suppressed.

The latest clash between GBAO residents and security forces occurred after rallies in Khorog on May 14 and 16, 2022. On May 18, in the Rushan district of the region, where, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, about 200 people blocked the Dushanbe-Khorog highway to prevent the arrival of a large convoy of security forces to the administrative center of Gorno-Badakhshan. After this, the anti-terrorist operation began. As a result, more than 40 local residents died. Dozens of people were detained, many of them were convicted.

Eight United Nations experts are awaiting a response from Tajik authorities to a letter expressing concern about the fate of convicted journalists and civil activists. UN experts and special rapporteurs in their letter demanded an explanation from Dushanbe regarding reports of gross violations of the rights of nine convicted journalists and bloggers, as well as civil activists. The letter dated 12 May 2023, is published here. UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights defenders, Mary Lawlor has visited Tajikistan earlier to address the human rights violations in the country.

Tajikistan also announced the detention of five Pamiris in June of this year, presenting them as “leaders of an organized criminal group in the city of Khorog”. Among those convicted are Tolib Ayombekov, Nazhmiddin Sherchonov, Imumnazar Shoishirinov, Munavvar Shanbiev and Niyozsho Gulobov.

Source

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Tajikistan: Terrorism, Slander, Corruption Claims Swirl in Latest Sign of Elite Infighting https://tashkentcitizen.com/tajikistan-terrorism-slander-corruption-claims-swirl-in-latest-sign-of-elite-infighting/ Tue, 03 Oct 2023 08:00:00 +0000 https://tashkentcitizen.com/?p=4873 An old friend of the security services and police chiefs has been dragged into a tussle with the…

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An old friend of the security services and police chiefs has been dragged into a tussle with the newly powerful General Prosecutor.

Early on September 6, the security services in Tajikistan issued a press release containing some apparently alarming news. 

The State Committee for National Security, or GKNB, claimed in the statement that government forces had confronted a trio of heavily armed Islamist militants bent on mounting deadly attacks on Independence Day, which falls on September 9. 

The men, all Tajik nationals, had crossed the border from Afghanistan carrying rifles, handguns, ammunition, grenades, medicinal supplies, religious literature, blueprints of government buildings, $10,000 in cash, and even a beard trimmer, officials said in a statement accompanied by photos. 

This purported plot, hatched in cooperation with an unspecified foreign intelligence service agency, was thwarted, however. All three men were cornered in a location in the Darvoz area, near the Afghan border, and were killed after they refused to surrender, the GKNB maintained. 

Frustratingly for reporters and members of the public eager to learn more, the would-be militants have quickly been buried at undisclosed locations. No explanations have been offered for how the group were able to hide out for several days in a sensitive and closely guard near-border area. And it is also unclear why metadata of the GKNB-issue images dated them to September 2020. 

And so, skeptical Tajiks have taken to wondering if there might not be more – or less – to this troubling episode than meets the eye. Thoughts have focused in particular on a very different set of events that began evolving in the middle of last month.

On August 14, General Prosecutor Yusuf Rahmon caused eyebrows to rise when he announced at a press conference that he had ordered the arrest of well-known businessman and writer Abduhalil Kholikzoda. 

Rahmon explained that the arrest had been triggered by the contents of memoirs, titled Events of My Life, written by Kholikzoda and published in March. 

The book, which has been obtained by Eurasianet, is a grab-bag of genres. At times, Kholikzoda, who is perhaps best known in Tajikistan as the founder of the Ibni Sino private medical clinic, shares stories from his career, as suggested in the title.

Elsewhere, he drifts into highly subjective commentaries, in part about the mindset of Tajiks from various parts of the country. He reserves special criticism for inhabitants of the south, where much of the current ruling elite comes from, for what he perceives as their lack of refinement.

Kholikzoda has much to say about the economic climate in Tajikistan too. He bemoans the poor state of affairs for business, the lack of foreign investment and the woeful state of the healthcare sector. 

None of which makes Kholikzoda a gadfly. He writes in his book of his sincere friendship with the heads of both the GKNB and the Interior Ministry, noting that some of the accounts he shares came from their own lips. It is inconceivable the book would even have been printed and allowed to hit bookstores without those bodies giving the green light. 

But while the GKNB and the police get an easy ride in the book, the businessman has less kind things to say about prosecutors. In one passage, he alleges that an intermediary acting on behalf of the mayor of Panjakent, a city in western Tajikistan, paid a large bribe to the General Prosecutor’s Office to get it to refrain from opening a criminal case against him. 

What is particularly intriguing about this hazily substantiated accusation is what Kholikzoda says the General Prosecutor (whom he does not name outright, although it is Yusuf Rahmon that holds the post) then did with the solicited bribe. The businessman alleges that the cash was used to fund a lavish wedding – this appears, although it is not explicitly spelled out in so many words, to be a reference to the 2022 nuptials between a son of Yusuf Rahmon and the youngest of daughter of President Emomali Rahmon, Farzona. 

The two Rahmons are not blood relatives.

By general consensus, the General Prosecutor has strongly consolidated his authority as a result of his son marrying into the ruling family. Which makes the nature of the allegations in Kholikzoda’s book all the more incendiary and perilous.

Rahmon, the prosecutor, is now getting his payback. Speaking to journalists last month, he accused the businessman of seeking to sow hatred among residents of Tajikistan’s regions. Inciting intolerance is an offense punishable by prison time.

Some time after Kholikzoda was detained, the same treatment was reserved for the well-known writer Abdukodir Rustam, who is said to have edited the offending book. People familiar with the investigation have said it is believed Rustam was the person responsible for including the claim about the Panjakent bribe. 

Zooming out, the whole affair has begun to look like another flashpoint in a long-standing conflict between Tajikistan’s law enforcement agencies. 

On September 4, RFE/RL’s Tajik service, Radioi Ozodi, reported, citing unnamed sources, on a testy confrontation between the heads of all three agencies at which President Rahmon was also present.

“Yusuf Rahmon asked them: ‘How can you be friends and stand up for a person who opposes the policies of the Leader of the Nation?’” Ozodi reported, citing the prosecutor’s reference to his presidential namesake.

Ozodi’s analysis suggests that the GKNB and the Interior Ministry chiefs may have overplayed their hands by seeking to tarnish the reputation of a man now tied to the ruling family in a very deep sense. 

In that optic, disquieting accounts of narrowly thwarted terrorist plots appear potentially designed to enhance the sense of indispensability around such bodies as the GKNB, which is ostensibly in charge of border security and takes the lead on anti-militant activity.

Source: Eurasianet

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20 Years Later, Terrorism Simmers From Iraq to Afghanistan, Officials Warn https://tashkentcitizen.com/20-years-later-terrorism-simmers-from-iraq-to-afghanistan-officials-warn/ Wed, 05 Apr 2023 13:21:00 +0000 https://tashkentcitizen.com/?p=3236 DOHA, Qatar—“No, it wasn’t worth it.”  That’s how an advisor to Iraq’s prime minister responded to journalist Peter Bergen’s…

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DOHA, Qatar—“No, it wasn’t worth it.” 

That’s how an advisor to Iraq’s prime minister responded to journalist Peter Bergen’s oft-asked question about the American invasion of Iraq.

Bergen posed it on stage at a conference of counterterrorism professionals here just a few days shy of the 20th anniversary of the invasion’s start, and Mohammed Al-Darraji answered bluntly.

The human and financial cost of the American destabilization of Iraq left behind a failed state. And in recent weeks, new alarms are sounding about the security threats simmering from Iraq to Afghanistan that can be traced back to that fateful decision so long ago.

In their own remembrances this week, Western news pages and airwaves are filled with heartrending stories recalling the horrors of that war, the folly of nation-building, the unpunished culpability of the American politicians who ordered it, the way it changed the military, the lasting trauma of its veterans, and the relentless grief for those who died. Our collective sentiment for the Iraq War remains overwhelmingly negative, angry, and unsettled.

But looking forward, the outlook for Iraq, the region, and the adjacent global war on terrorism is once again alarmingly bleak. In the past month, generals, journalists, officials, and activists have issued new warnings.  

“Saddam [Hussein]’s brutal regime was replaced with a dysfunctional kleptocracy that can’t deliver to its people,” Simona Foltyn, an international journalist who lives in Baghdad, said at the Global Security Forum last week. 

The annual counterterrorism-focused event included a panel on Iraq, and gloom about the past war and the future was palpable. Despite five successful elections and relatively peaceful power transfers since Saddam, Foltyn said Iraq’s fragile post-war political system is more entrenched than most outsiders realize. 

“There’s almost an infinite level of fragmentation…that keeps destabilizing the country.,” she said. 

And should democratic governance fail, Muqtada al-Sadr is still there, waiting to take advantage. 

Omar Muhammed, formerly known as the activist MosulEye, was less interested in reliving the invasion than highlighting Iraq’s long list of current problems, like water, energy dependence, and thousands of missing or encamped people from the war and later ISIS occupation. 

“Every day there is a new problem or a new challenge in Iraq. Every day there is more and more poverty,” and drinking water “is as scarce as any other material.” The U.S. invasion in 2003, he said, “destabilized the entire social stability of the country.” 

Gen. Erik Kurilla knows this. The commanding general of U.S. Central Command has been shuttling to the region at a frenetic pace. He told the Senate last week that ISIS, now based in Syria, “maintains the capability to conduct operations within the region and has the desire to strike outside of it.”

Kurilla likes to talk about ISIS as three parts. First is the “at-large” organization, about which he says, “I think we have contained ISIS, but the ideology is uncontained and unconstrained.” 

Second is the ISIS army in detention. “There are over 10,000 ISIS detainees spread across 26 different prisons in northeast Syria,” Kurilla said. 

Last year, 1,000 made it over the outside wall in a breakout and 400 were killed in a 10-day fight with U.S. and Syrian Democratic Forces. 

Third is the camps for refugees and displaced persons, as at al-Hol, where 51,000 people live, over half of whom are children. “They’re at risk from radicalization. About 50 percent of the camp holds some—espouses, some form of ideology according to the camp guards, the camp administrators, and the residents. And the other half are trying to escape ISIS.” Half of the internally displaced persons there are from Iraq. The repatriation rate back to Iraq is so slow Kurilla estimates it will take another four years to move them all out. 

It is all a direct result of the spiral of chaos caused by the U.S. invasion of Iraq. By now it’s well documented that the invasion sparked a series of violent extremist terrorist movements and a corrupt trail of divided governments. Al-Qaeda gave way to the Islamic State has mostly morphed from the Iraq-Syria border regions clear into Afghanistan. There, with no U.S. troop presence since the evacuation of 2021, the threat from ISIS-Khorasan is much worse. 

“It is my commanders’ estimate that they can do an external operation against U.S. or Western interests abroad in under six months with little to no warning,” which includes targets in Europe, Kurilla told the committee. He estimates ISIS-K could have the ability to strike the United States homeland in six months.

Since the U.S. withdrawal, the Islamic State in Afghanistan has tripled its attacks, increased propaganda, and is expanding to become a regional organization by “actively trying” to absorb minor groups. “IS-K is growing in strength.” 

There has been a pile of informed ink written about the Iraq War’s 20-year legacy, much of it hard to read. And there is good documentation of Iraq’s difficulties today. But as the world (and the Pentagon) focuses on the pending Cold War with China and Russia’s hot war in Ukraine, we should also be reminded by this anniversary that there is simply more work ahead of us in Iraq—and because of it. 

Source : Defense One

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