Moscow (11 September/ 33.33).

Russia waged a 2-year war of aggression against its neighbor, the Ukraine. Two years on, hundred thousand of deaths, families destroyed, Russia is no where near its 3-day goals of occupation. The Russian army slugs on, mile for mile, killed for killed. Vladimir Putin and his Siloviki continues a red army model. Heavy artillery, wave of men urging forward. The result, mass casualties. Total loss of life, and equipment.

What does Russians do if in trouble. Reversing to its all bag of tricks. Spies and sabotage. Recent Russian sabotage operations across Europe were “reckless”, Moore said, describing Russian intelligence as “having gone a bit feral”. But “in the UK that is not new”, he added, referring to the attempted assassination of Russian double agent Sergei Skripal in Salisbury in 2018.

Asked if Russian intelligence might be conducting similar sabotage operations against the US by abetting illegal migration across the Mexico border, Burns said: “It’s something we are very sharply focused on. Part of that is a function of so many Russian agents [being] kicked out of Europe. So, they are looking for somewhere to go instead.”

But these sometimes child like operations cause blowbacks. Operations and governments getting increasingly more sophisticated in exposing the intelligence operations and their agents.

Bangladesh, Laos, Sri Lanka are countries who are exposed to Russian interests. However, Russians have very little to offer.

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Washington/Paris/Berlin (12/8 – 28.57).

Today is the twenty-anniversary of the sinking of the Kursk. A painful experience. A true shocker. All hands are lost, the shortcomings of the Russian system fully exposed. But today is another experience. Kursk, the region. After ceremonial pageantry by the military commander, it is clear the great Red Army was ambushed.

Hoodwinked by the Ukrainians who pulled off a surprise attack, a classic attack which has all the elements of a successful deception operation. Overwhelming strength, speed and first and foremost silence. Deception played a role keeping the Russian pre-occupied. Daily the news a filled of the exchanges between the Ukrainian defenders and the Russian occupation force.

The attention was given to the aging Admiral Kuznetsov long target of the security services of the Ukraine. In an audacious caper matching a Hollywood production the wily chief of the Intelligence Service Kyrylo Budanov the ship was targeted by sabotage teams of the Ukraine. Whereas Budanov’s boys of misfits drawn the attention of the Russians away from the home front the planning for the attack was carried out.

Then the surprise attack came.

The Ukrainian defenders breaking through the lines of Russian occupation forces, the Russians fumbled, reserves were rushed to the front but to no prevail. Ambushes were set up, forward observers guided cluster ammunition against convoys driving Russian occupation forces into retreat.

Troves of occupation forces are surrendering to the Ukrainian defenders. Social media is full of videos Russian occupation forces surrendering. Drones are used to instruct the surrender.

Surrender leaflets are circulating on the internet. Estimates state approximately 3,000 prisoners were taken.

Inside the liberated towns the situation is desperate, residents feel abandoned, many shops are looted by the Russian occupiers and residents feel abandoned. Vladimir Putin holding his security briefing annoyed with the presenter but stated the area will be liberated.

Ukraine’s relentless push into Russian territory, particularly in the Kursk region, has forced Moscow to employ extreme measures. Ukrainian forces have made significant inroads into the Kursk region, causing significant distress within the Russian military.

Ukrainian troops managed to penetrate Russian positions by over 30 kilometers, creating significant disruption among Russian forces.

The chaos led to varied responses from Russian units—some offered staunch resistance while others either deserted or surrendered. Among the latter were crews operating sophisticated T-80BWM tanks.

Russia has lost at least 156 T-80BWM tanks, a figure confirmed by video and photographic evidence collected by Oryxspioenkop. The T-80BWM’s modern features include an upgraded two-layer reactive Armor called Relikt, which provides enhanced protection against advanced tandem warhead munitions and FPV drones.

A unique characteristic of the T-80BWM is its gas turbine engine, offering superior responsiveness compared to traditional diesel engines. This feature has earned it the nickname “flying tank” in Russia due to its rapid acceleration and high performance.

The Russian army has reportedly begun withdrawing convoys, suffering substantial losses in both equipment and personnel. At least 16,000 have been evacuated.

It is clear from the language that the Russian occupying force will strike back. Never since 1941 has Russian territory occupied. And the outcome is unclear for the moment.

During the meeting, Putin reiterated his stance against engaging in dialogue with Ukraine, citing the ongoing attacks on civilian populations.

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Former Russian Deputy Defense Minister Tatyana Shevtsova, who officially was dismissed mid-June, fled to France ‘with hundreds of millions of dollars saved in cryptocurrency.’.

Tsargrad and other Telegram channels report this with reference to several sources, although confirmation or refutation of this data has not yet been received. If she fled to France, it must be a deal with the French security service, as she is sanctioned in Europe.

There is a version that Shevtsova allegedly cooperated with the investigation against the detained generals, trying to avoid her own charges. According to another version, the generals, to reduce their sentences, named the names of colleagues who participated in corruption schemes, which could include Shevtsova.

In addition, the Tsargrad publication notes that Tatyana Shevtsova actually owns several real estate properties, including a residence on the banks of the Moscow River worth up to 2 billion.

She has also real estate in Italy, Spain, Switzerland and France.

Serious questions are being raised as to who helped Tatyana Shevtsova leave the country and who covered up her actions. Fleeing to NATO countries is not the best choice for a Russian official, especially a former defense official.

Source

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The successful phasing-out of gas imports from Russia risks making Europe dependent on liquified natural gas (LNG) imports, according to a report published by the European Court of Auditors (ECA) today (June 24).

Between 2021 and 2022, LNG imports increased from 80 billion cubic meters (bcm) to 120 bcm — reflecting an increase from 22% to 34% of total gas imports including from Russia and pipeline — according to the ECA. By 2023, the largest LNG global exporters to the EU were Norway (30%), the US (19.4%) and North Africa (14.1%), Russia was still responsible for 6.1% of LNG imports alongside 8.7% via pipeline, according to EU data.

The risk of LNG dependency was considered by the European Commission when modelling the impact of cutting back Russian gas supplies in 2014, when Moscow annexed Crimea, the EU auditors found.

But the EU executive “never modelled or estimated the extent of such LNG price increases or their impact on consumers and competitiveness”, ECA auditors said.

“Given the EU’s dependence on foreign gas, it can never be complacent about its security of supply. And consumers do not have any affordability guarantees in the event of a major future shortage,” said Joāo Leāo, the ECA member responsible for the audit.

Subscribe here to stay informed on the latest EU policy development with our newsletter, “The Policy Briefing”, your weekly insight on European rulemaking, key events and data trends.

The EU imports over 80% of its natural gas and Russian gas accounted for 45% of all EU gas imports in 2021, the last year before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, creating a supply crisis that led to an affordability crisis — gas prices reached a peak of €339 per megawatt-hour (MWh), compared to €51 per MWh, in August 2022 and the same month in 2021, ECA figures revealed.

Prices stabilised at an average of approximately €45/MWh in late 2023, ECA said, still at double pre-crisis levels. Nonetheless, ECA found that the EU’s work to ensure a secure level of gas supply to be “unequal” across member states and that the results of crisis-response goals “often cannot be demonstrated”.

Today’s 14th EU package of sanctions against Russia targeted Russian LNG, but only where imports are transited on for resale.

“This covers both ship-to-ship transfers and ship-to-shore transfers, as well as re-loading operations, and does not affect import but only re-export to third countries via the EU,” according to an EU Council press statement. 

• Watchdog urges caution on reducing Russian LNG imports to the bloc

Carbon capture

ECA’s report also recommends the EU to come up with decarbonisation measures for carbon capture storage and utilisation (CCUS) in light of the energy and climate transition, as EU auditors expect the EU to still need “substantial amounts of natural gas in 2040 for energy-intensive industries” and to date has identified only four commercial CCUS projects operating in the EU with an output of 1.5m tonnes of CO2 captured annually.

EU auditors also called for “improved transparency” in the way energy infrastructure projects connecting EU countries with each other — the so-called Projects of Common Interest (PCIs) — are selected, describing them as “complex”, with “many assessments and steps” and “various investors”.

A total of €1.6 billion was awarded to 40 gas PCIs between 2014 and 2020, 18 of which received funding for construction, according to ECA.

“We found project outcomes to be unclear, making it difficult to assess the implementation rate of PCIs and the added value of a project being a PCI… We found a number of issues with this process, from which lessons can be learnt for the future selection of hydrogen PCIs,” the report found.

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Colonel Yuri Ivanov, the commanding officer of the Steel Wolves, surveyed his men with steely determination. These were the best of the best, handpicked for their courage, skill, and unwavering loyalty to Ukraine. They had been fighting tooth and nail to slow the Russian advance, launching daring raids and ambushes against overwhelming odds.

But despite their valiant efforts, the tide of the war seemed to be turning against them. Russian tanks rumbled through the streets, their tracks crushing everything in their path. Buildings lay in ruins, and the once-thriving city had been reduced to a ghost town.

“We can’t hold them off forever,” one of the soldiers muttered, his voice heavy with exhaustion and despair.

Colonel Ivanov’s jaw tightened, his gaze flickering with a fierce resolve. “We may not be able to win this war,” he said, his voice low but resolute. “But by God, we can make them pay for every inch of ground they take. We will fight on, even if it means sacrificing everything. We will give Putin’s troops hell.”

A murmur of agreement rippled through the ranks as the soldiers squared their shoulders, their eyes burning with defiance. They knew the risks they faced; the odds stacked against them. But they also knew that they were fighting for something greater than themselves—for their country, for their freedom, for the future of Ukraine.

As dawn broke over the horizon, casting a golden light across the ravaged landscape, the Steel Wolves prepared to once again venture into the heart of the battle. They were outnumbered, outgunned, but they refused to back down. For as long as they drew breath, they would continue to fight. And in that moment, amidst the chaos and destruction of war, they found a strength that transcended fear—a bond forged in the crucible of combat, a brotherhood that would endure until the end.

As the sun rose higher in the sky, casting long shadows over the war-torn landscape, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stood before a podium in the heart of the capital city. His voice was firm, his resolve unyielding, as he addressed the nation.

“My fellow Ukrainians,” he began, his words echoing through the streets, “we find ourselves in the midst of a struggle unlike any we have faced before. The forces of tyranny seek to crush our spirit, to extinguish the flame of freedom that burns within each one of us. But we will not cower in the face of oppression. We will stand tall, united in our defiance, and we will fight until our last breath.”

The crowd erupted into cheers, waving Ukrainian flags and chanting slogans of resistance. Among them stood the members of the Steel Wolves, their faces grim but determined.

President Zelensky’s gaze swept over the crowd, his eyes alight with determination. “I have deployed our fearsome special forces team, the Steel Wolves, to strike fear into the hearts of our enemies,” he declared. “They are trained to hunt down and eliminate the Russian invaders with ruthless efficiency. They will be our sword and shield in this dark hour, our beacon of hope in the midst of despair.”

A ripple of applause swept through the crowd as President Zelensky raised a clenched fist in defiance. “To those who seek to conquer us, I say this: you may have the might of an empire at your disposal, but you will never break the spirit of the Ukrainian people. We will fight on, even if the war is lost, to give Vladimir Putin’s troops hell!”

The cheers grew louder, echoing through the streets like a thunderous battle cry. The people of Ukraine had made their choice—to stand and fight, to resist tyranny with every fibre of their being. And as the Steel Wolves prepared to once again venture into the heart of the conflict, they knew that they carried with them the hopes and dreams of a nation.

For in the face of adversity, in the crucible of war, they had found a strength that could not be broken—a strength born of sacrifice, of courage, of an unbreakable bond between brothers-in-arms. And as they marched into the fray, they knew that they would do whatever it took to defend their homeland, to protect the values for which they stood, and to ensure that the flame of freedom continued to burn bright in the land of Ukraine.

The battle ahead would be long and arduous, filled with hardship and sacrifice. But if they stood together, if they fought with every ounce of strength in their bodies, they knew that victory was not only possible—it was inevitable. And so, with heads held high and hearts ablaze with determination, they marched forward into the unknown, ready to face whatever challenges lay ahead.

As the conflict raged on, the Ukrainian Special Operation Force (SOF) proved to be a formidable adversary to Vladimir Putin’s troops. With each passing day, their tactics grew more daring, their strikes more precise, as they inflicted heavy casualties on the advancing Russian forces.

Colonel Yuri Ivanov, the leader of the Steel Wolves, coordinated their operations with ruthless efficiency. Every move was calculated, every target carefully chosen to maximize the impact on the enemy. And as the Russian casualties mounted and their supply lines were stretched thin, the tide of the war began to turn in Ukraine’s favour.

But it was not just their military prowess that struck fear into the hearts of the Russian invaders—it was their unwavering determination, their refusal to back down in the face of overwhelming odds. Despite the grim reality of the situation, the members of the Steel Wolves fought on with a fierce resolve, fuelled by a sense of duty to their country and a desire to protect their loved ones from harm.

As the days turned into weeks and the weeks turned into months, the SOF launched a series of daring raids behind enemy lines, seizing vital strategic positions and disrupting Russian communications. They became ghosts in the night, striking swiftly and silently before melting back into the shadows, leaving chaos and confusion in their wake.

But as the war dragged on, the toll it took on the members of the Steel Wolves became increasingly apparent. They had endured sleepless nights, relentless combat, and the constant threat of death looming over them like a shadow. Yet still, they pressed on, drawing strength from the bonds of brotherhood that united them as one.

And amidst the chaos of war, amidst the smoke and the gunfire and the cries of the wounded, they found moments of camaraderie and solidarity that kept them going through the darkest of times. They laughed together, they cried together, they shared stories of home and family, clinging to the memories that reminded them of what they were fighting for.

But even as they celebrated their victories and mourned their losses, they knew that the war was far from over. The Russian army still loomed on the horizon, their thirst for conquest undiminished by their losses. And so, with hearts heavy but spirits unbroken, the members of the Steel Wolves prepared to face whatever challenges lay ahead, knowing that their fight was far from over.

For as long as they drew breath, they would continue to fight—to give Vladimir Putin’s troops hell and to defend their homeland to the last.

As the conflict escalated, the Ukrainian Special Operation Force (SOF) found themselves at the forefront of the battle, their efforts crucial in slowing down the Russian advance. With each passing day, the SOF’s effectiveness became increasingly evident as they inflicted heavy casualties on the invading Russian forces and seized control of vital strategic positions.

Colonel Yuri Ivanov, the seasoned leader of the SOF, orchestrated their operations with precision and cunning. His tactical brilliance, combined with the unwavering commitment of his men, proved to be a formidable force against the Russian aggressors. Every successful mission further bolstered the morale of the Ukrainian forces and struck fear into the hearts of their adversaries.

But it wasn’t just their military prowess that made the SOF stand out. It was their ingenuity and adaptability in the face of overwhelming odds. As more and more of Vladimir Putin’s weaponry fell into their hands, they quickly learned to repurpose and utilize it against their enemies. Russian tanks became Ukrainian barricades, enemy drones turned into reconnaissance assets, and captured ammunition became the lifeblood of their resistance.

Amid the chaos of war, the SOF became a symbol of hope for the Ukrainian people—a beacon of defiance against the forces of tyranny. Their bravery inspired others to join the fight, swelling the ranks of the resistance and strengthening their resolve to defend their homeland at all costs.

But as the conflict dragged on, the toll it took on the SOF became increasingly apparent. The constant stress of battle, the loss of comrades, and the never-ending cycle of violence weighed heavily on their shoulders. Yet still, they fought on, driven by a sense of duty to their country and a determination to protect their loved ones from harm.

And amidst the devastation of war, moments of camaraderie and solidarity emerged among the members of the SOF. They forged bonds that transcended rank and nationality, finding solace and strength in each other’s presence. In the darkest of times, it was these connections that kept them going, reminding them of what they were fighting for and giving them the courage to carry on.

As the conflict reached its climax, the SOF stood ready to face whatever challenges lay ahead. Theirs was a fight not just for territory or power, but for the very survival of their nation and the values it stood for. And though the road ahead would be fraught with danger and uncertainty, they knew that if they stood together, they could overcome any obstacle and emerge victorious in the end.

For the work of Ukraine’s Special Operation Force (SOF) could not be understated—it was the backbone of the resistance, the vanguard of freedom, and the hope of a nation determined to defy the odds and forge its own destiny.

The origins of the Ukrainian Special Operation Force (SOF) traced back to the dark days of Russian aggression in the Donbas region. Formed in 2015 as a direct response to escalating tensions, this elite unit quickly became a thorn in the side of Vladimir Putin’s ambitions.

Comprised of 2000 highly trained soldiers, the SOF was equipped with the latest weaponry and technology, courtesy of heavy investment from the United States. This support allowed them to stand toe-to-toe with the Russian invaders and defend their homeland with unmatched ferocity.

From the outset of the conflict, the SOF proved their worth on the battlefield. Their guerrilla tactics, ad-hoc counterattacks, and mobile defense strategies disrupted Russian advances and inflicted heavy casualties on their forces. They became a symbol of resistance, a beacon of hope for the Ukrainian people in their darkest hour.

But it wasn’t just on the battlefield where the SOF made their mark. They also waged a relentless campaign against Russian sleeper cells embedded throughout the country. Using their superior intelligence-gathering capabilities, they rooted out and neutralized these threats, striking fear into the hearts of their adversaries.

In an ironic twist of fate for Vladimir Putin, the success of the SOF was made possible by the very country he saw as his greatest adversary—the United States. Heavy investment from Washington provided the Ukrainian forces with the resources they needed to hold their own against the Russian military machine.

As the conflict raged on, the SOF continued to be a thorn in the side of the Russian forces. Their determination, skill, and unwavering commitment to their cause ensured that they would not be easily defeated. And though the road ahead was fraught with danger and uncertainty, they remained steadfast in their resolve to defend their homeland and protect the values for which they stood.

For the Ukrainian Special Operation Force (SOF) was more than just a military unit—it was a symbol of defiance against tyranny, a testament to the courage and resilience of the Ukrainian people in the face of adversity.

The extent of US investment in Ukraine’s defense became increasingly apparent as the conflict unfolded. From 2015 to 2020, Ukraine saw a staggering increase in its defensive budget, bolstered by billions of dollars in aid from the US and the UK, according to reports from the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).

But it wasn’t just financial support that Ukraine received. As part of the deal, the US went a step further, offering a CIA-led training program for Ukrainian forces. This program, shrouded in secrecy, aimed to transform the Ukrainian military into a formidable fighting force capable of repelling Russian aggression. According to one trainer involved in the program, the goal was clear: to train soldiers who were prepared to “kill Russians” in defense of their homeland.

The impact of this investment was profound. The Ukrainian military underwent a radical transformation, evolving from a struggling force into a well-equipped and highly trained fighting machine. At its helm stood the Ukrainian Special Operation Force (SOF), a fanatical and devoted group of soldiers who had pledged to fight on even if the war was lost.

In an interview with Vice News, a member of the SOF spoke candidly about their mission. He revealed that the group was prepared to unleash hell on the Russian invaders, using their training and expertise to wreak havoc behind enemy lines. But their mission went beyond just combat—it also involved rooting out Russian sleeper cells that had infiltrated Ukrainian territory before the war even began.

The existence of these sleeper cells added another layer of complexity to the conflict, as Ukrainian forces fought not only against the Russian army but also against clandestine operatives lurking in their midst. But the SOF was undeterred. With unwavering resolve and a relentless determination to defend their homeland, they continued to hunt down and neutralize these threats, striking fear into the hearts of their adversaries.

As the war raged on, the SOF remained a force to be reckoned with—a symbol of Ukrainian defiance against Russian aggression. And though the road ahead was fraught with danger and uncertainty, they stood ready to face whatever challenges lay ahead, knowing that if they drew breath, they would continue to fight for freedom, for justice, and for the future of their nation.

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Brussels/London (16/6 – 33.33) The defeat of the Russian Federation is a foregone conclusion. It is a reality. It is a must. Victory for Ukraine is non-negotiable. It is an absolute necessity. As ironclad as Brussels, London, Berlin or Washington. As ironclad as the Normandy battlefield, Waterloo, Verdun, or many other spots on the planet.

We, the ones living in this generation that saw the war erupted right in front of our eyes, owe it to the young men and women in the Ukraine who gave their lives for this conviction. An excessive number of sceptics advocate for surrender. We have succumbed to the mindset of defeatism. Europe cannot tolerate this culture of apparent defeat.

It seems that the Europeans have lost their capability to win wars. The military leaders are merely overweight theorists. Our economies are still gearing towards a situation of a so-so war. Our politicians are populists, administrative pencil-pushers. The context of war has given way to fears.

We Are At War!

It is the reality in the European Union that we are at war. The French belief of “if you are in combat, you better pray that you have an American on your side” does not hold true any longer.

Americans are the fair-weather friends; and what looks like it, now NATO is more than the US. Regardless of the internal squabbles of political morons or not.

Here is where the grievance from Putin takes hold. Stability talks, sudden withdrawal from Afghanistan walks. It gotten under the skin of Putin. And he says so. The consequence: 13 Marines dead and millions of Afghans living under Taliban rule again.

But NATO has an obligation to respond if Article 5 is called. Like it or not. Before Trump withdrawal from NATO happens, he must convince the U.S. congress to withdraw from a treaty agreement. And that’s a long way off. So, we must calm ourselves and Keep Buggering On, a phrase made famous by Sir Winston Churchill.

Expert assured the U.S. president can’t do anything, realistically that is likely, however realpolitik will determine the future. We must beat the Russians. Even if it irks us that the investment is massive. Defense is not free, neither it is for the Ukrainians. Many of U.S. compatriots are complete anti-Ukraine. A common misperception in the current political climate of rumours and counter-rumours. An anti-Ukrainian policy has swept the Americans off their feet.

In the interwar years we seen similar trends. Strong anti-European, pro-Hitler movements. Today, it’s the same. The Republican base is completely mesmerized by the idea Russia is not “their” war. Nothing further holds true. Its idiotic, it really is, notion that Russia is not their enemy coming from the academic side of the school of international affairs has its roots in the interwar period.

President Woodrow Wilson was able to navigate neutrality in World War I for about three years, and to win 1916 re-election with the slogan “He kept us out of war.” The neutrality policy was supported by the tradition of shunning foreign entanglements, and by the large population of immigrants from Europe with divided loyalties in the conflict.

Senator Hiram Johnson, of California, denounced the League of Nations as a “gigantic war trust.”. Most of the sentiment bore a reassertion of nativist and inward-looking policy. By the summer of 1940, France suffered a stunning defeat by Germans, and Britain was the only democratic enemy of Germany. In the summer of 1940, 67% of Americans believed that a German-Italian victory would endanger the United States, that if such an event occurred 88% supported “arm[ing] to the teeth at any expense to be prepared for any trouble”, and that 71% favoured “the immediate adoption of compulsory military training for all young men”.

Life wrote that the survey showed “the emergence of a majority attitude very different from that of six or even three months ago”. A same defeatist culture has entered the political discourse in Europe and the United States in 2024.

Trump, a transnational short term, “Mr. Fix-It” has negotiated a 2% GDP increase for defense spending. However, his political rhetoric will be put in a firm place by the boys with the big pants, like Putin, President Xi from China, or others. Polls indicate growing impatience among Americans with the war in Ukraine with 2023 polls showing just 17% of Americans think their country is “not doing enough” to support Ukraine. This percentage is the lowest since the war began. Trump is riding high on this public sentiment.

After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Republican Party has been divided on Ukraine’s aid, believing that it is not in the interests of the United States to get involved in a “proxy war” against Russia. Former President Donald Trump has called on the United States to push for peace talks rather than continue to support Ukraine.

Who lies better?

Remember the phrase “Not one inch” expansion eastwards? Currently whenever the Russian Federation needs a bogeyman it blames the United States. But after examining the historical facts the situation is more complicated.

It is fact in 2001 Vladimir Putin spoke in the German Bundestag and consider joining NATO. But the slippery slope was the invasion of Iraq. For the Russians this was the red line not to be crossed. But it was.

Munich followed and the rest is the proverbial history. The Lithuanian prime minister Kalla was quoting Soviet-time foreign minister Andrei Gromyko, and she noted that he had said negotiation tactics of the Soviet Union involved three things.

“First, demand the maximum,” she said. “Do not ask, but demand something that has never been yours. “Second, present ultimatums. “And third, do not give up one inch in negotiations because there will always be people in the West who will offer you something. “And then in the end you will have one third or even half of something you didn’t have before. So, we have to keep that in mind all the time.”

The peace offer, if we like to call it as such, from Vladimir Putin instructing senior diplomats on June 14, 2024, in Moscow speaks from conditions. And here is where it gets tricky. Demanding the NATO to halt the Ukraine to join will be rejected. And, demanding now four (4), not two (2) provinces will be equally dead in the water.

Nobody has yet asked the hard question. Why does Russia need this land? Creating a security buffer can be done on the inside your own territory. Hence the narrative the Kremlin put out is short lived. Truth be told, Moscow was hoping to annex the rich pickings of the Ukraine. Coal, water, “black soil” rich on minerals are just some of the resources in the region that was fought over already by the Germans.

We Must Win!

It is therefore clear; we must adopt a culture of winning. It is costly, but we must win. Many young men and woman will be laid to rest for the concept of defending their land. But the Ukraine Must Win.

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Dubai/Astana (10 June – 60). The Pamiris are an ethnic minority group in Tajikistan, culturally distinct from the majority Tajik population. They have faced persecution and discrimination in their mountain homeland bordering Afghanistan that some experts say amounts to ethnic cleansing and even genocide. One of the lead persecutors is Ministry of Internal Affairs “Maj. Gen.” Shorukh Syedzada, a former football team manager with no law enforcement experience and a confidante of the president’s son and heir designate.

The Pamiris continue to be marginalized and oppressed by the authorities. As a result, many Pamiris have been forced to flee their homeland in search of safety and refuge, facing the risk of imprisonment or even death if they remain.  Tajikistan’s notorious jails are filled with thousands of Pamiri men and youth, and even women, arrested on trumped up charges by Syedzada who heads the Criminal Investigation Department at the ministry, and responsible for joint operations with the Russian, Turkish, Polish and German intelligence to forcefully detain and return to Tajikistan individuals charged with “terrorism.”

Despite their plight, the Pamiri community remains little-known to the outside world, making it challenging for them to garner support or recognition for their struggles.  The MIA actively works for foreign security services, including those of China, Russia, and Europe, to depict Pamiri civil society leaders as “gangsters” and “terrorists,” justifying their arrests, and killings.

Despite the undeniable existence of the Pamiri community as a distinct ethnic minority in Tajikistan, the denial of their identity by Tajikistan’s justice minister is deeply concerning.

This denial not only perpetuates the marginalization and discrimination faced by the Pamiris but also hinders efforts to address their plight and ensure their rights are protected.

The violent suppression of Pamiri peaceful protests in towns like Rushan and Khorog by Tajik authorities in May 2022, that resulted in the torture and killings of dozens, and imprisonment of hundreds,underscores the ongoing challenges faced by the Pamiri people, driving many to flee their homeland in search of safety and refuge. The journey to find asylum is fraught with hardship and danger, with many experiencing mistreatment and facing significant barriers to secure protection in other countries.

Human rights organizations are calling on the international community to recognize and address the persecution faced by the Pamiris, advocating for their rights and providing support to those who have been forced to flee their homes to countries like Germany, Poland and Turkey. Pamiri organizations in Europe say that it is essential to ensure that they are afforded the protections guaranteed under international law, including the right to seek asylum without fear of reprisal or mistreatment.

The reported cases of disappearances of Tajik citizens from Russia and Turkey raise serious concerns about the safety and rights of individuals within the Pamiri community and beyond. Recently, Pamiris and non-Pamiri Tajiks have been forcefully deported from Germany, Poland, Russia, and Turkey back to Tajikistan, where, according to sources, they face immediate torture by both the Ministry of Internal Affairs as well as the GKNB intelligence service.  Survivors of the tortures report that top MIA and GKNB officers, including Syedzada and GKNB chairman Saymumin Yatimov, participate in the interrogations, and directly threaten prisoners.

Pamiri exile leaders, speaking on condition of anonymity, urge Western governments to provide support and protection to those at risk of persecution, including offering avenues for asylum and resettlement for those who seek refuge from such oppressive conditions in Tajikistan. Additionally, they call for diplomatic pressure to be exerted on Tajikistan to respect the rights and freedoms of all its citizens, regardless of their ethnicity or political affiliations.

‘We all want to go home’

Pamiri witnesses who escaped to the West paint a harrowing picture of the challenges faced they faced as they fled persecution in Tajikistan.

One Pamiri’s journey to freedom was marked by violence and mistreatment at the hands of border guards in multiple countries, where he was threatened with forceful return to his homeland, thus underscoring the desperation and danger faced by those seeking refuge. Despite reaching Germany, he continues to live in fear of extradition back to Tajikistan, where he risks torture and dreadful prison conditions.

Another Pamiri refugee witness has described how his family was torn apart by the consequences of their involvement in the peaceful 2022 Khorog protests. The imprisonment of his brother for “unlawful social media activity” and the subsequent death of their father underlines the devastating toll of persecution on individuals and families within the Pamiri community. His mother’s plight, unable to visit her imprisoned son and grieving the loss of her husband, highlights the profound impact of state-sponsored persecution on the lives of innocent civilians.

While there has been some international criticism of Tajikistan’s actions, Pamiri civil society leaders say that much more needs to be done to hold the authorities accountable and to ensure the protection of Pamiri rights. They believe that it is essential that Tajikistan’s international trade partners and diplomatic allies prioritize the issue of Pamiri persecution in their engagements with the country, pushing for recognition of the Pamiri community’s civil rights – including the freedom of religion and the use of their native languages — and advocating for an end to repression and discrimination.

In the interim, the Pamiri leaders in exile call for neighbouring countries like Russia to provide support and refuge to those fleeing Tajikistan in search of safety. They note that EU member states, as well as countries such as the US, have a responsibility to recognize the plight of the Pamiri minority and offer asylum to those unable to live in their homeland without fear of persecution.

Ultimately, the Pamiri leaders believe that the fundamental long-term goal must be to persuade the Tajikistan authorities to recognize the existence of the Pamiris, cease their repression, and grant them equal rights and protections under the law. Only through concerted international pressure and solidarity can meaningful change be achieved for the Pamiri community and other marginalized groups in Tajikistan.

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Kiev (15/5 – 60).         

Spokesperson for the Ukrainian Armed Forces did not comment of the formation of new tank brigades. The new brigades are equipped with Leopard 2 and Bradley personnel carriers. The exact strength is not disclosed but it will be envisioned the new brigades are deploying the various hotspot.

Well informed sources within the ministry of defense did not comment on the deployment. “We want to avoid speculation”, said a Colonel of the HUR (the military intelligence department).

In the NATO context, the Ukrainian army is a considerable force. Wedged in between the United States, Poland, Turkey (or Türkiye as it is colloquially called) the United Kingdom, the Ukraine is in the top five of NATO generating forces.

Without being an active member of NATO, the Russian war of aggression took a risk to take on NATO. The “security buffer” of NATO surrounding the Russian Federation is an irrational fear of the old Soviet style. The Russians have only contributed to the unification of NATO and the rearmament of Europe.

Besides getting new weapon systems online the EU is reconstituting conscription. Although whispered in the hallways of power, conscription is the new normal.

NATO has as of May 2024, NATO’s combined militaries have around 3.5 million personnel, including troops and civilians. This number has increased over time, with 3.37 million personnel in 2023 and 3.01 million in 2016. The United States had the largest number of active military personnel in NATO with almost 1.33 million men under arms.

Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark stand up forces are about 139,600 with reserve forces drawn up to a million men.

As of April 2024, NATO allies had 12,408 main battle tanks in addition to 1,004,844 armored vehicles and other ground combat vehicles. Türkiye and Greece have the highest number of tanks besides the United States. 2,231 and 1,365 tanks can be fielded by the two NATO states.

NATO allies and partner countries have delivered more than 98% of the combat vehicles promised to Ukraine during Russia’s invasion and war, the military alliance’s chief said Thursday, giving Kyiv a bigger punch as it contemplates launching a counteroffensive.

Ukraine’s allies have sent “vast amounts of ammunition” and trained and equipped more than nine new Ukrainian brigades, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said.

More than 30,000 troops are estimated to make up the new brigades. Some NATO partner countries, such as Sweden and Australia, have also provided armored vehicles.

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Two years in the war of Russian aggression against the Ukraine the balance is grim. Let us take stock. Leadership. The EU model of command and control consist of an old grumpy old general, an Austrian, who nobody has heard before, taking a political control of a pretty large army based of a defeatist model. The question to pose is the General who often is compared with Franz Josef I. suitable for modern command? The likely answer is no.

The European play wars.

The Europeans appear to be out of the fight. NATO command is in contradiction with EU command with different levels of leadership taking active role in the war against Russia. The ground war in the Ukraine is just one of the examples. Is the potential NATO and EU partner pulling the weight? After Avdiivka where a devasting judgment by one battalion commander removed a considerable element of its front, critics of the Ukrainian battle doctrine are louder.

Demoralized, worn out, short of ammunition, the Ukrainian army packed up and left, leaving a gap in the front line promptly exploited by the Russians. Life was lost, ground captured while the U.S. haggled over war aid. Politics cost life with both, the European and its American allies to take the blame.

Josep Borrell was quoted, “Europe is in danger, as I have said this many times. We live in an era of strategic competition and complex security threats. We see the return of power politics, with hybrid threats growing, interdependence being increasingly conflictual and soft power being weaponized.”

In the meantime, the EU high command produces glossy brochures of their paper victory. It writes, “The overall objective remains to involve the enlarged military and civilian community serving Europe’s security and defense, in building up and consolidating a most needed common European Defence culture”. It reads like the who-is-who to operate “inter-operationability” congratulating each other for a “job well done”. However, the Russian reality is a bit different in Africa and the Ukraine.

Enter the French.

War command of the Europeans is that the Germans don’t want to fight, the Americans don’t want to take on the Russians, who is left? The French, the Baltic states, and the leftover of the old eastern bloc with little appetite to take on the Slavic monster, the Russian overlords. U.S. policy is to strategically “exhaust” the Russians.

The French 3 REI, of the famed French Foreign Legion surprise upped the stakes of the game. So did the American weapons supplies. Rockets nevertheless hit the Russian depots assembly points, Ukrainian special forces unleashed a series of fires and explosions, and Russian spies were arrested in Bavaria. So far, the hot war is heating up with each side holding their peace.

War will lead to more violence, more injuries, more deaths. On both sides.

The shifting of strategic balance.

Taken the kinetic out of the question, the hybrid option lacks consistency. Central command of the European lack the spirit to fight to win. Political debates are given way. No Double Cross committee leads the propaganda efforts against the Russian Federation anywhere on the planet. The bureaucracy is stifling, the legal framework is prohibitive and not responsive. Operational security is limited to the involvement of the Central Intelligence aiding the Ukrainians, however what if does not address the changes of political winds in Washington and in Brussels. Recent adventures in Niger, Mali, Afghanistan does not give confidence in Washington capability to counter Russian disinformation efforts.

Russian beware.

The question no one asked how is Russia functioning? Its economic picture does not sound right. The oil richness does not translate to individual wealth creation. The supply chain is disrupted with shortages of beef, chicken, and potatoes.

For now, the public stands behind Vladimir Putin. How long is the question. Whereas the older generation steadfast defends the president, polls show discontent within the younger generation of Russians. The revolution will come from within.  

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Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accused the European Union of attempting to drive Russia out of Central Asia, and said the bloc was failing, in an interview broadcast on Sunday.

Moscow’s sway over a region it considers its sphere of influence has waned since the offensive in Ukraine, with Europe, Russia, China, Turkey and Iran all vying for influence in Central Asia.

“The European Union isn’t hiding its intentions to restrain [Russia] in every possible way and push it out of Central Asia and the South Caucasus,” Lavrov said.

“These attempts are futile. We have been historically present there and are not going to disappear,” he said.

Lavrov was giving an interview on the sidelines of a visit to Kazakhstan this week, during which Russian President Vladimir Putin met his Kazakh counterpart Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.

The Russian leadership’s trip to Kazakhstan came a week after a separate visit to the country by French President Emmanuel Macron.

The French leader had praised a country “which refuses to be at the bottom of the subjugation of a few powers,” an implied reference to Russia.

Lavrov responded, saying Macron’s statements were “quite brazen, for diplomatic language.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Western countries were investing in Central Asia for the sake of ousting Russia.

Former Soviet republics in Central Asia – which are seeking to diversify their international partnerships – saw a flurry of diplomatic activity this week, including with the Turkish and Iranian leaders visiting Uzbekistan.

Source: South China Morning Post

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