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Ukraine has scored a series of victories in more than a week since launching a lightning offensive into Russian territory. Now the stakes are rising as its forces prepare to defend their gains and Russia begins to regain its footing.

Last week, Ukraine deployed thousands of troops to the Kursk region in western Russia, removing Russian flags from captured towns and taking the initiative from Moscow for the first time in months. On Wednesday, officials in Kyiv said Ukraine would use seized Russian territory as a “buffer zone” to shield its north from Russian strikes.

Panic spread quickly among local Russian residents in the early hours of the assault, despite repeated attempts by authorities to assure them that everything was under control, according to a timeline by Reuters of the first two days of the incursion.

Oleksandr Syrskyi, head of the Ukrainian armed forces, said on Thursday that Kyiv had set up a military commandant’s office in the occupied part of Kursk, suggesting ambitions to dig in. The occupied area exceeds 1,150 sq km, Syrskyi said.

Ukraine’s goals at Kursk include diverting Russian forces from the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, where Russia has been making advances for months and is trying to seize the entire region, said Ukraine’s former defense minister, Andriy Zagorodnyuk. In addition to dealing a reputational blow to President Vladimir Putin, the largest invasion of Russia since World War II has decimated Russian forces, captured bargaining chips, and created a threat to Russia’s flank.

However, a Ukrainian foreign ministry spokesman said that Ukraine was “not interested” in permanently taking Russian land and that the territory was intended only as a bargaining chip in peace talks.

Kyiv-based military analyst Serhiy Zgurets predicted that Ukraine would try to maintain control of the area between the towns of Rylsk, Korenevoye, and Sudzha and the border, which gives Ukraine control of a strip about 20 km (12 miles) wide strip of Russian territory. “This line is not difficult to defend, given there are few roads and a large number of rivers,” he said, as quoted by Reuters.

Ukraine’s forces destroyed eight Russian attack drones and five out of eight missiles, Ukraine’s Air Force chief said on Sunday. As a result of the anti-aircraft combat, anti-aircraft missile troops of the Air Force, mobile firing groups of the Ukrainian Defence Forces, and electronic warfare units shot down 13 air targets in Kyiv, Sumy, and Poltava regions.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed that the operation to strengthen Ukrainian troops in Kursk, Russia, on Saturday (08/17/2024), went according to plan. He referred to Syrsky’s report, which mentioned the strengthening of Ukrainian troops’ positions in the Kursk region and the expansion of the controlled territory steadily. This is also related to the capture of Russian soldiers who will be used for future prisoner exchanges.

“I thank all the soldiers and commanders who are taking Russian soldiers. Thus, the release of our soldiers and civilians held by Russia is getting closer,” Zelensky said.

Meanwhile, to win the war over Ukraine, Russia has increased its propaganda budget in 2024 by 20% from its already massive $1.6 billion. Russian economists have been at the forefront of internet disinformation since at least 2014 when it pioneered the use of bot farms to spread fake news about its invasion of Crimea. The Kremlin is at it again, according to French authorities.

Viginum, the France’s foreign-disinformation watchdog, says it has detected preparations for a large disinformation campaign in France, Germany, Poland, and other European countries. The uncovering of a Russian network of 193 websites designed to spread “deceptive or false” content about the war in Ukraine, comes after a series of destabilization efforts that French authorities have attributed to Moscow.

The network, codenamed “Portal Kombat,” also targeted Germany, Poland, and France, which are thought as particular targets as the European Parliament elections draw nearer.

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Russia lost a staggering 1,740 troops in a single day, the highest tally of casualties for Moscow since the start of the invasion in 2022, according to Ukraine.

In the previous 24 hours, Ukraine also claimed Russia had lost 30 tanks and 42 armoured vehicles.

Death toll and military hardware statistics are difficult to assess with both sides giving different or little information.

However, Ukraine‘s armed forces have claimed Russia has so far lost an eye-watering 484,030 men during the course of the ongoing war.

Earlier this month, the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) estimated Russia‘s casualties have likely reached 465,000.

French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné recently suggested this figure would be closer to 500,000. The BBC reported that at least 50,000 Russian soldiers had been confirmed dead.

Russia last gave an update on its losses in September 2022, saying 6,000 soldiers had been killed.

Both sides have suffered huge losses in the fighting. Russia is currently advancing in the vicinity of Kharkiv, Ukraine‘s second-largest city.

In recent days, Moscow’s soldiers reportedly took control of nine villages near the city.

Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine‘s military chief, said on Monday: “Units of the defence forces are fighting fierce defensive battles. The attempts of the Russian invaders to break through our defences have been stopped.”

“The situation is difficult, but the defence forces of Ukraine are doing everything to hold defensive lines and positions, (and) inflict damage on the enemy.”

Ukrainian soldiers are still lacking supplies and key ammunition.

Kharkiv regional governor, Oleh Syniehubov, has added: “The enemy is trying to deliberately stretch it (front line), attacking in small groups, but in new directions, so to speak.”

Source: Daily Express

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Ukrainian officials are concerned that Russian advances could gain significant momentum by the summer unless their allies can increase the supply of ammunition, according to a person familiar with their analysis. 

Internal assessments of the situation on the battlefield from Kyiv are growing increasingly bleak as Ukrainian forces struggle to hold off Russian attacks while rationing the number of shells they can fire. 

Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said Thursday that mistakes by frontline commanders had compounded the problems facing Ukraine’s defense around Avdiivka, which was captured by Russian forces this month. Syrskyi said he’d sent in more troops and ammunition to bolster Ukrainian positions.

Pessimism among Ukraine and its allies has been mounting for weeks as they’ve seen Russian forces seize the initiative on the frontline with vital aid from the US held up in Congress. The fall of Avdiivka and several nearby villages is fueling fears that Kyiv’s defenses may not be able to hold.

Those losses should act as a wakeup call to Ukraine’s allies, a European official said.

“Ukraine can start losing the war this year,” Michael Kofman, a specialist on Russia and Ukraine at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said on the War on the Rocks podcast.

What many do not realize is a defeat in the Ukraine will cause western powers collapsing with calls for stronger leadership taking over. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin hasn’t given up his original goal of seizing major cities including the capital Kyiv and Odesa, according to Ukrainian intelligence assessments, the person said, asking for anonymity to discuss matters that aren’t public. 

If Russian forces reached Odesa, they would be able to shut off Ukraine’s crucial grain export routes through the Black Sea and open up access to Moldova, where the breakaway region of Transnistria on Wednesday appealed to Moscow for political support.

Depending on the results of the current campaign, Russia will decide whether to continue with a slow, grinding advance, or to accumulate resources for a bigger strike to break through Ukrainian lines this summer, the person close to Ukraine’s leadership said.

Putin on Thursday repeated that he still plans to achieve the goals set out at the start of the invasion, which have remained unchanged since 2022, during an address to his Federal Assembly.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Sunday that munitions shortages are affecting the battlefield situation and warned that Russia is planning a new offensive in the spring or early summer.

“It will be difficult for us in the coming months because there are fluctuations in the US that have an impact on some countries, though the European Union showed it is capable of being a leader with its support,” Zelenskiy said.

With Ukrainian forces desperate for more ammunition, some allies, led by the Czech Republic, are looking into buying around 800,000 artillery shells from outside the EU to give to Ukraine.

A major offensive would still be a challenge for the Kremlin after two years of war that have depleted its forces. Russia’s efforts to take Kyiv, Kharkiv and move on Odesa in the early weeks of the war failed spectacularly.

Despite Ukraine’s shortages, Russia would need far more soldiers but also heavy tanks and vehicles to launch an offensive, Admiral Rob Bauer, NATO’s military committee chairman, said in an interview on Feb. 17. So far, Moscow hasn’t been able to ramp up production quickly enough in those areas, he said.

Putin “has more artillery, he has an ability to replace a certain amount of missiles every month, which he’s using, but he’s not been fully successful in terms of the increase in, for example, tanks and armored vehicles,” Bauer said.

He pointed to recent Ukrainian reports that, despite the loss of Avdiivka, Russian troops were killed at a high rate of seven for every soldier Kyiv lost.

“The one-to-seven ratio means he will need a lot of forces to defeat the Ukrainians, “Bauer said.

Ukraine’s strategy is to try to hold the front line as much as possible until the second half of the year, when it may get F-16 fighter jets and western ammunition production is due to ramp up. That would allow Kyiv to plan for another possible counteroffensive in 2025.

Aliaksandr Kudrytski and Jessica Loudis.

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