Frankfurt, Paris (18/8 – 62.50)

Ukraine has scored a series of victories in more than a week since launching a lightning offensive into Russian territory. Now the stakes are rising as its forces prepare to defend their gains and Russia begins to regain its footing.

Last week, Ukraine deployed thousands of troops to the Kursk region in western Russia, removing Russian flags from captured towns and taking the initiative from Moscow for the first time in months. On Wednesday, officials in Kyiv said Ukraine would use seized Russian territory as a “buffer zone” to shield its north from Russian strikes.

Panic spread quickly among local Russian residents in the early hours of the assault, despite repeated attempts by authorities to assure them that everything was under control, according to a timeline by Reuters of the first two days of the incursion.

Oleksandr Syrskyi, head of the Ukrainian armed forces, said on Thursday that Kyiv had set up a military commandant’s office in the occupied part of Kursk, suggesting ambitions to dig in. The occupied area exceeds 1,150 sq km, Syrskyi said.

Ukraine’s goals at Kursk include diverting Russian forces from the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, where Russia has been making advances for months and is trying to seize the entire region, said Ukraine’s former defense minister, Andriy Zagorodnyuk. In addition to dealing a reputational blow to President Vladimir Putin, the largest invasion of Russia since World War II has decimated Russian forces, captured bargaining chips, and created a threat to Russia’s flank.

However, a Ukrainian foreign ministry spokesman said that Ukraine was “not interested” in permanently taking Russian land and that the territory was intended only as a bargaining chip in peace talks.

Kyiv-based military analyst Serhiy Zgurets predicted that Ukraine would try to maintain control of the area between the towns of Rylsk, Korenevoye, and Sudzha and the border, which gives Ukraine control of a strip about 20 km (12 miles) wide strip of Russian territory. “This line is not difficult to defend, given there are few roads and a large number of rivers,” he said, as quoted by Reuters.

Ukraine’s forces destroyed eight Russian attack drones and five out of eight missiles, Ukraine’s Air Force chief said on Sunday. As a result of the anti-aircraft combat, anti-aircraft missile troops of the Air Force, mobile firing groups of the Ukrainian Defence Forces, and electronic warfare units shot down 13 air targets in Kyiv, Sumy, and Poltava regions.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed that the operation to strengthen Ukrainian troops in Kursk, Russia, on Saturday (08/17/2024), went according to plan. He referred to Syrsky’s report, which mentioned the strengthening of Ukrainian troops’ positions in the Kursk region and the expansion of the controlled territory steadily. This is also related to the capture of Russian soldiers who will be used for future prisoner exchanges.

“I thank all the soldiers and commanders who are taking Russian soldiers. Thus, the release of our soldiers and civilians held by Russia is getting closer,” Zelensky said.

Meanwhile, to win the war over Ukraine, Russia has increased its propaganda budget in 2024 by 20% from its already massive $1.6 billion. Russian economists have been at the forefront of internet disinformation since at least 2014 when it pioneered the use of bot farms to spread fake news about its invasion of Crimea. The Kremlin is at it again, according to French authorities.

Viginum, the France’s foreign-disinformation watchdog, says it has detected preparations for a large disinformation campaign in France, Germany, Poland, and other European countries. The uncovering of a Russian network of 193 websites designed to spread “deceptive or false” content about the war in Ukraine, comes after a series of destabilization efforts that French authorities have attributed to Moscow.

The network, codenamed “Portal Kombat,” also targeted Germany, Poland, and France, which are thought as particular targets as the European Parliament elections draw nearer.

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Former Russian Deputy Defense Minister Tatyana Shevtsova, who officially was dismissed mid-June, fled to France ‘with hundreds of millions of dollars saved in cryptocurrency.’.

Tsargrad and other Telegram channels report this with reference to several sources, although confirmation or refutation of this data has not yet been received. If she fled to France, it must be a deal with the French security service, as she is sanctioned in Europe.

There is a version that Shevtsova allegedly cooperated with the investigation against the detained generals, trying to avoid her own charges. According to another version, the generals, to reduce their sentences, named the names of colleagues who participated in corruption schemes, which could include Shevtsova.

In addition, the Tsargrad publication notes that Tatyana Shevtsova actually owns several real estate properties, including a residence on the banks of the Moscow River worth up to 2 billion.

She has also real estate in Italy, Spain, Switzerland and France.

Serious questions are being raised as to who helped Tatyana Shevtsova leave the country and who covered up her actions. Fleeing to NATO countries is not the best choice for a Russian official, especially a former defense official.

Source

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Kiev (8/6 – 17).          

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense’s announcement about the personnel losses suffered by Moscow in May underscores the toll the conflict has taken on the Russian side.

The reported figure of 38,940 personnel losses for Moscow as stated by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, indicates a significant escalation in the conflict’s intensity. Such a high monthly casualty count underscores the severity of the situation and the toll it’s taking on the Russian side.

Ellie Cook’s report in Newsweek highlights a critical aspect of conflict reporting the difficulty in accurately determining battlefield casualties. Analysts often caution against relying solely on figures provided by involved parties due to the potential for inaccuracies. Putin commented in a rare occasion on the death toll.

The UK Ministry of Defense’s estimate of 500,000 killed and wounded Russian personnel in Ukraine since the start of the war is a significant figure that aligns closely with Ukrainian estimates.

The Ukrainian General Staff’s report of 507,650 personnel losses since the beginning of the war underscores the significant toll the conflict has taken on Russian forces. The UK Ministry of Defense’s statement about the high level of casualties in May, with an average of over 1,200 Russian personnel per day, further emphasizes the intensity of the fighting during that period.

The record-high losses experienced by Russia, including the highest single daily loss figure of the entire war, are attributed to Moscow’s commitment to an attritional style of warfare. So called ‘meat grinder’ attacks, make up the number of mounting losses for the Russians.

The UK Ministry of Defence’s assessment highlights significant challenges facing Russian forces, including limitations in training and tactics. The report suggests that many Russian troops received only limited training.

Dissent within Russian society is growing. In a repressive system these forces are supressed. Observers warn that the army leaders, purged by Putin, could emerge as a force. Tactics in use are out of the Russian Red Army manuals. So is training and strategy.

Source: Internet

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A diverse group of Pamiri and Ismaili interest groups gathered to discuss the terror attack in Moscow. “We reject the notion this were Pamiris or Ismailis representing us”, said one of the spokespeople, who want to remain anonymous out of fear of persecution by the Tajik authorities. 

“They are Takfiris”, he said. Non-believers, apostates to the cause. The majlis (meeting) was called after Moscow was quick to blame Tajik immigrants for the terror attacks. Previous warnings were ignored by Moscow. “We as a Pamiri community do not belief in the use of violence against the innocent. We understand the suffering and pain caused by such an attack.”, he added. 

The leaders assembled in Dushanbe and represented most of the diaspora in Tajikistan and abroad. “The attempt to taint us with the terrorists is rejected.”, he added. 

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Kazakhstan has unveiled an initiative to prioritise the use of the Kazakh language over Russian in its media, amid increasing concerns over Moscow’s influence in the former Soviet Republic since the beginning of war in Ukraine in February 2022. 

While Kazakh is the official language of this former Soviet republic in Central Asia, Russian is also recognised and widely spoken among its approximately 20 million residents.

Culture Minister Aida Balayeva revealed that the proposed media law outlines a shift to increase the presence of the state language in television and radio content from 50 per cent to 70 per cent.

The legislation is currently under discussion among lawmakers and is expected to gain approval from the parliament, which is perceived as loyal to President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.

The Kazakh culture minister further explained that this transition will occur gradually, with a 5 per cent annual increase starting in 2025, in line with government efforts to promote the Kazakh language since the Soviet Union’s dissolution three decades ago.

Despite a significant ethnic Russian population of about 15 per cent, Kazakhstan maintains strong political, economic, and military ties with Moscow due to their shared border.

However, Kazakhstan has also been actively strengthening relationships with Western nations and China, particularly since the beginning of Moscow’s offensive in Ukraine. 

In Kazakhstan’s neighbouring country, Kyrgyzstan, where the Russian language holds official status, similar legislation was passed earlier this year, mandating fluency in Kyrgyz for civil servants and requiring 60 per cent of the media content to be produced in the local language.

In other former Soviet Central Asian countries — the Stans — such as Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, the Russian language lacks official status but is still commonly used by residents and officials.

Source: Wio News

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On June 20, after meeting with Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Astana, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier announced Germany’s recent endorsement of Kazakhstan’s efforts to create alternative trade routes and transport corridors to Europe while bypassing Russia. Steinmeier declared that such measures would further prevent the Kremlin’s ability to evade sanctions via Kazakhstan (Svoboda, June 20). However, Moscow’s moves to redirect trade through a new corridor that would circumvent Kazakhstan pose a challenge to Astana’s ambitions (see EDM, 5 July).

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, both local governments, neighboring foreign states and international institutions have invested much effort and money in designing and then building regional and intercontinental trade routes. Regardless of where they originate, all of these plans are inextricably tied to the sponsors’ geopolitical as well as economic interests. Consequently, they invariably have become elements of bilateral, regional and international contestation. These plans have long served to bring together Asian, European and Central Asian states, including Afghanistan and the former Soviet republics (Unescap.org, accessed July 19).

Throughout history, Central Asia has been at the crossroads of civilizations and trade routes. Its strategic location has attracted the attention of various empires and powers seeking to control the potentially lucrative corridors between Asia, Europe and the Middle East. As a significant part of the Great Silk Road, Kazakhstan’s cities not only served as transshipment points for commodities traveling from China to Europe but also actively participated in joint production and trade, as well as the interchange of cultural values ??and ideas (Russian.people.com.cn, November 29, 2013; EL, March 18, 2017).

Therefore, it is unsurprising that such maneuvers have become a long-standing element in Central Asia’s international politics—not least in Kazakhstan, due to its geographical location as a link between Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, as well as Russia and China. For example, for the first time, in June 2023, Kazakhstan signed a series of agreements with Azerbaijan to bring energy and other natural resources and minerals through the Caspian and Azerbaijan to the Caucasus and European markets, which are eager to obtain these imports (Astana Times, June 22). Not least in these matters is the fact that these agreements bypass Russia thereby marking another step toward Kazakhstan’s economic and political independence from Putin’s Russia (Eurasianet, June 28).

These agreements are part of a larger grand design for Astana. Recently, Tokayev suggested that the German government could replace embargoed Russian oil with Kazakhstani oil (Radio Azattyk, June 3). He suggested that Kazakhstan could increase its exports of oil by 600 percent to Germany and presumably German-operated, but not Russian-owned, refineries in Germany could increase their capacity from 90,000 to 200,000 tons by the end of 2023 and then 900,000 to 1 or 2 million tons annually in the near future. Likewise, Italy is already importing oil from Kazakhstan, increasing its share of imports from 28 percent in 2022 to 38 percent in 2023.

These trade contracts clearly represent significant efforts by Astana to diversify its foreign economic relations. For example, Kazakhstan has signed accords with Beijing to enhance energy flows to China, and the aforementioned agreements with Azerbaijan likewise speak to that ambition (Kursiv.media, May 18; Upstream, May 19). Indeed, recently, the European Union has announced its intention to import “critical goods” from Kazakhstan via the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, bypassing Russia (Kursiv.media, July 4). These goods include lithium, cobalt, titanium and other rare earth metals vital to the contemporary global economy, as well as defense manufacturing. For the EU, this is explicitly about reversing its excessive dependence on China and Russia for such goods; thus, its geo-economic and geopolitical intentions are clearly and openly stated.

Kazakhstan has also repeatedly criticized Moscow’s war against Ukraine, something Putin and his subordinates will not soon forget (Tengrinew.kz, June 20). And one way Moscow can get back at Astana is to exclude Kazakhstan from newly proposed trade routes running from Central Asia through the Caspian to Russia (see EDM, July 5). This trade route from the Turkmenbashi Seaport in Turkmenistan to Astrakhan on the Caspian has been on the table for several months. Clearly, it represents an attack on Kazakhstan, with the Kremlin alleging that Astana is blocking other Central Asian traders from exporting their wares.

Russian sources also allege that this planned trade route is linked to Moscow’s ambitious north-south transit project to connect Russia, Central Asia, Iran and India and could lead to the mutual supply of dual-use goods among its members (Orda.kz, July 7). It also appears that Uzbekistan, which has been much quieter, though nonetheless unhappy about the war, and has recently improved ties with Russia, was strongly lobbying for this trade route to avoid its own excessive dependence on Kazakhstan (Ratel.kz, July 12). Thus, this corridor, along with the others proposed by Kazakhstan, reveals the intertwining of economic and political motives for strategically critical region ranging from Europe and the Caucasus to Central Asia and China.

India can also be included among these states, a proposed beneficiary and terminus of the projected north-south route and a state with its own active program to build trade with Central Asia and major European markets (ORF, February 2020). Indeed, China has consistently sought to minimize Indian exposure to those trade routes and markets as part of its own long-standing efforts to suppress India’s rise to the status of a great power (Nikkei, January 29).

Undoubtedly, as India, China, Russia and smaller but nonetheless critical regional actors strive to expand their economic and political influence globally, and Europe seeks to develop viable and long-lasting trade routes with Asian markets, the contestation over these corridors will grow. This rivalry will not be confined to Kazakhstan but will engage every Central Asian state for years to come, as the countries in the region are entering a period of enhanced trade and geopolitical rivalries. Therefore, the struggles and rivalries depicted here will be part of the regular agenda and landscape of international affairs in both their political and economic dimensions in Central Asia for the indefinite future.

Source: Yahoo

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AKIPRESS.COM – Turkmenistan Airlines has temporarily suspended flights between Ashgabat and Moscow until October 28.

Flights to Russia will be conducted through Kazan, as stated by the airline’s press service.

The suspension of flights to Moscow began on August 1 due to concerns about flight safety and the situation in the air zone of the Russian capital after a drone attack.

Passengers with tickets for the Moscow-Ashgabat route are advised to travel to Kazan three hours before departure, while those with tickets for the Ashgabat-Moscow-Ashgabat route have the option to reissue them for flights via Kazan or receive a refund.

Flights from Turkmenistan to Russia are being operated by Turkmenistan and S7 airlines, with flights departing from Ashgabat to both Moscow and Kazan.

The drone attack on Moscow occurred on August 1, resulting in a temporary disruption of aircraft operations at the Moscow Vnukovo airport.

Source: Akipress

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London, Brussels (14/2 – 17)

Pu·to·ni·a

/ˈpo͞otəˈnēə/

Pu·to·ni·an

/ˈpo͞otəˈnēyən/

Noun; A state of semi dictatorship under the self-illusion of recreating a status quo by force to impose an ideology on others.

Russia was a reflective nation. This is the DNA of Russian society, it manifests itself in its culture, politics and society. There is a constant balancing of war and peace. Today, Russia is at war. War against Ukraine, war against Europe, war with itself. However, Russia has made miscalculations.

First, if the Ukrainians are defeated, defeating the Ukrainians in the battlefield will lead to the downfall of Putin’s empire. The Russian winning the war will not guarantee the survival of the regime in Moscow.

The war of aggression against the Ukraine triggers deep seated fears of the Europeans about the Russians. The past atrocities of the Red Army of 1944/45 particularly against the Polish, Ukrainians and others in Eastern Europe are still deeply embedded in the psyche of most older generation of Europeans. And now, the atrocities are replaying in colour daily.

The murder of the Ukrainian civilian population by Russian forces are unparalleled in post second world war Europe. The invasion of Ukraine only reaffirm these old fears and has broken the Russian dream to join the European Union. Moscow is prepared to break it off with the West. The geographical divide is a reality.

Secondly, Russia`s tactical objectives of Putonian conquests are to capture the economic heartlands of the Ukraine. Ukraine is smaller than Russia but has considerable wealth as a nation. The eastern part of the Ukraine produces most of the commodities making Ukraine the Kuwait of the East. In  comparison to Stalin’s extermination policy, the tactics used by the Russians to invade Ukraine is not without merits targeting Ukraine infrastructure. History does repeat itself.

However, the Russian destruction of the economic wealth of the Ukraine gives birth to the forward leap of the European Union as the new powerhouse in global trade, diplomacy and now, defense. In response to the Russian threat, Europe is now rearming.

The Russians have had failures on a few fronts. Both, the Russians and western alliances have underestimated the Ukrainian leadership and full-force resistance. Straight out of Clausewitz, the Putonian regime in Moscow miscalculated the resolute response from the allies. The Ukrainian coalition and allies did not collapse as predicted, and the EU and NATO are as close as never before in the history of the alliances.

Moscow failed to grasp the very basic principles of democracy. Its strategies are messy, extended and chaotic infighting, much trials and errors, constant failures, and little success but democracy is threatened when the Europeans and NATO close shoulders. A fact acknowledged by the Putonian regime’s foreign minister.

The third miscalculation is the war costs. The cost of economic destruction, lives lost and post-bellum medical and societal recovery are often underestimated by war planners. To bury and mourn the thousands of young men and woman resting in the soil of the Ukraine, including the downed Russians. Without doubt, this war also has a psychological effect on Russian souls.

The greater costs to society are the post-conflict issues of damaged bodies lost to the economy. The hate it creates against the Russians. The resentment to deal with the Russians. There is a loss of identity and trust. The Russian currency is suffering and having a free-fall. If Putin wanted to avoid a repeat of 1991 and the collapse of a currency, a war of this magnitude will sure not help the stability of the economy.

One of the arguments of the deprived ideology constantly used by the Putonian mouthpieces is that Russians fear the West wants to wipe out the Russian heritage. The genetically engrained distrust by the Russians is somewhat contextually wrong. Russia in truth is insignificant in the global domain. Putonian, despite their geographical presence, economic and natural wealth, is in the eyes of the allies, a dinosaur. The Ukraine war is a resource war.

The other argument is the preservation of culture. But the “kultura” has not many takers amongst the Moscow elite. Whereas the Putonian regime breaches the preservation of Russian culture, the offspring of the regime party in London, Paris, Bali, Phuket, Dubai, Ibiza, and other hotspots frequent by the Russian elites. Father Putin calls all to support the domestic travel industry is heeded by everyone, except the regime´s children.

The children of Mother Russia on the other hand are dying in trenches of the Eastern front as their forefathers have done. Captured in grotesque dance of death when Ukraine’s precision ammunition hits the mudholes of huddling, freezing Russian youths. One by one they fall, die on the frontlines of the Ukraine. Close to 200.000 deaths or whatever the number is, and for what?

This Putonian world vision in the pages of history comes at a price, usually written in blood and tears. The war in Ukraine is that of a war of heroes and tears for Russia. And the Ukraine.

Part of the post-communist Soviet’s KGB mentality wants to see Russia return to its former glory, if ever there was such an illusion anchored in the ideology of the Soviets. Killing was its business. Now the attitudes of past Soviet has returned and confidently adopted by the Putonian regime in Moscow. The Stalinist-like regime and activities. The post war suppression of Ukraine and the other Soviet satellites. The war in Afghanistan. The near nuclear holocaust. The empty food shelves like back in the 1990’s. The collapse of the Soviet Union. Those were the glory days of Russia. That was the Russian reality and the Russians are ignoring that reality.

But besides this being a Putin folly, why would the West bother to invade Russia by military means if they can economically, scientifically, politically just outrun the Russians? The western narrative that says that Putin wants to resurrect the Russian empire is as illusionary as is the Russian pipedream invading the Ukraine. Sadly even if Russia sues for peace, it is an unlikely solution for at least the next two decades. We are at war. And it’s here to stay for a while.

Russia slides from the Great Power, to declining state, down to a pariah state bottom. The old Russia with its deep sense of history, culture and greatness is gone. Putonia is born. A fantasy, a similar one much to Trump’s attempt to reset the American clock. That failed and so will Putin.

The country who has major challenges from dealing with corruption, visibly lack of equipment and supplies for the army, the explosion of its prime submarine the Kursk and the criminal empire of organized crime within Russia amongst others are destroying the country from within. Some argue that Putin’s war is resetting the internal clock of Mother Russia. If an external war and officials falling out of window are the right way to go, it remains to be seen.

I argue that we understand very little what the pressures on the regime are. We assumed the economic data was correct. We assumed all is well in Moscow. However the voices on the fringe increasingly pointed out the internal pressures the regime faces. An external war does divert from the domestic challenges for the regime. There are lessons here, experts regularly get it wrong. Wake up. Listen to the voices of dissent.

Whereas vested western interests exist in the Russian Federation, the future impacts on the Russian economy will shift Russia to near poverty as the cost of the war quickly piles up. If your trade is directed towards Iran, Turkey, North Korea, and China, you might find the Putonian world domination is as ineffective as the Trumpian isolation politics.

Fourth, the biggest misjudgement is the so-called winner on the battlefield are realistically often the strategic loser. History is full of failed assumptions. The German ‘Blitz’ targeting the UK utterly failed to force the British to capitulate to Germany.

The UK blinded the German’s vision of quick victories which were experienced on the mainland facing the German juggernaut. The bombardment of civilian targets only hardened the resolve of the British people. The same applies to the Ukraine.

The allied carpet bombing failed to achieve its strategic objective to break the German´s will to fight. War production was at a height in 1944 throughout the two years of carpet bombings and mass casualties of civilians. The German war machine went on an overdrive, developing the cruise missile, jet fighters, the assault rifle, organic fuel to replace regular fuel, tanks and encryption which exceeded today´s encryption keys.

Thankfully, Nazi Germany’s moral and ideological bankruptcy halted the advancement of these weapons. The Ardennes offensive in 1944 was as ill-conceived as Putin’s current attack on Donbas. The lesson learnt here, even if you win, you will still lose.

The Russian indiscriminate killing of Ukrainians backfired. So will the massive amount of losses by the Russians. Back in 1991, it was not the spooky organizations plotting the overthrow of the communists. It was the people who had enough that eventually decided their own faith.

Until this inflexion point is reached, we will continue to bury the young. Both Russians and Ukrainians alike.

So right now, the Russians are drinking their own Kool-Aid. But soon the economic costs, continuous onslaught and critical loss of life on both sides will become a factor. Keep watch on the mothers, the Afghan veterans and the moderates in the ranks of the army. Once the FSB and other intelligence services wake up from their dreams, the Putonian empire will be on his last leg. Change in Russia, historically and contemporary always is violent. A peaceful transition is not likely.

The destruction of public infrastructure, schools, hospitals, killing of innocent, and war crimes committed by Russian forces will remove any good will towards the existing Russian state and its leaders in the Putin administration. This pariah status will last until societal changes in Russia appear. This hot war front line along the Russian borders will remain for at least two decades.

The Putonian wars are futile as they are real. The quicker the West realizes that the invaders need to be defeated in the field of battle by all means, the faster a new and more peaceful era will descend on us. In the meantime, the killing of the heroes and the river of tears will continue.

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