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Ukraine has scored a series of victories in more than a week since launching a lightning offensive into Russian territory. Now the stakes are rising as its forces prepare to defend their gains and Russia begins to regain its footing.

Last week, Ukraine deployed thousands of troops to the Kursk region in western Russia, removing Russian flags from captured towns and taking the initiative from Moscow for the first time in months. On Wednesday, officials in Kyiv said Ukraine would use seized Russian territory as a “buffer zone” to shield its north from Russian strikes.

Panic spread quickly among local Russian residents in the early hours of the assault, despite repeated attempts by authorities to assure them that everything was under control, according to a timeline by Reuters of the first two days of the incursion.

Oleksandr Syrskyi, head of the Ukrainian armed forces, said on Thursday that Kyiv had set up a military commandant’s office in the occupied part of Kursk, suggesting ambitions to dig in. The occupied area exceeds 1,150 sq km, Syrskyi said.

Ukraine’s goals at Kursk include diverting Russian forces from the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, where Russia has been making advances for months and is trying to seize the entire region, said Ukraine’s former defense minister, Andriy Zagorodnyuk. In addition to dealing a reputational blow to President Vladimir Putin, the largest invasion of Russia since World War II has decimated Russian forces, captured bargaining chips, and created a threat to Russia’s flank.

However, a Ukrainian foreign ministry spokesman said that Ukraine was “not interested” in permanently taking Russian land and that the territory was intended only as a bargaining chip in peace talks.

Kyiv-based military analyst Serhiy Zgurets predicted that Ukraine would try to maintain control of the area between the towns of Rylsk, Korenevoye, and Sudzha and the border, which gives Ukraine control of a strip about 20 km (12 miles) wide strip of Russian territory. “This line is not difficult to defend, given there are few roads and a large number of rivers,” he said, as quoted by Reuters.

Ukraine’s forces destroyed eight Russian attack drones and five out of eight missiles, Ukraine’s Air Force chief said on Sunday. As a result of the anti-aircraft combat, anti-aircraft missile troops of the Air Force, mobile firing groups of the Ukrainian Defence Forces, and electronic warfare units shot down 13 air targets in Kyiv, Sumy, and Poltava regions.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed that the operation to strengthen Ukrainian troops in Kursk, Russia, on Saturday (08/17/2024), went according to plan. He referred to Syrsky’s report, which mentioned the strengthening of Ukrainian troops’ positions in the Kursk region and the expansion of the controlled territory steadily. This is also related to the capture of Russian soldiers who will be used for future prisoner exchanges.

“I thank all the soldiers and commanders who are taking Russian soldiers. Thus, the release of our soldiers and civilians held by Russia is getting closer,” Zelensky said.

Meanwhile, to win the war over Ukraine, Russia has increased its propaganda budget in 2024 by 20% from its already massive $1.6 billion. Russian economists have been at the forefront of internet disinformation since at least 2014 when it pioneered the use of bot farms to spread fake news about its invasion of Crimea. The Kremlin is at it again, according to French authorities.

Viginum, the France’s foreign-disinformation watchdog, says it has detected preparations for a large disinformation campaign in France, Germany, Poland, and other European countries. The uncovering of a Russian network of 193 websites designed to spread “deceptive or false” content about the war in Ukraine, comes after a series of destabilization efforts that French authorities have attributed to Moscow.

The network, codenamed “Portal Kombat,” also targeted Germany, Poland, and France, which are thought as particular targets as the European Parliament elections draw nearer.

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The Washington Post’s report, based on interviews with commanders and newly deployed troops, reveals a concerning trend where units on the front lines must re-train soldiers arriving from rear positions. 

The testimony from Officer Schmidt of the 93rd Mechanized Brigade provides a firsthand account of the challenges faced by Ukrainian troops on the front lines. 

The 93rd Mechanized Brigade’s involvement in some of the war’s fiercest battles emphasizes the gravity of the issue. 

The account of the soldier, identified as Val from the 93rd Mechanized Brigade, underscores the urgency with which troops are being sent to the front lines. The short notice given to Val before his deployment exemplifies the intense demands placed on Ukrainian forces amid ongoing hostilities. 

The accounts provided by soldiers from the 42nd Mechanized Brigade in Kharkiv paint a stark picture of the challenges faced by Ukrainian troops and the inadequacies of their training facilities. 

The reported deficiencies in Ukraine’s training centers, including shortages of basic ammunition like Soviet-caliber bullets and inadequate grenade training, highlight systemic issues within the military infrastructure. 

The absence of a proper training system, as lamented by the instructor, underscores the broader challenges facing Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense in ensuring the readiness and effectiveness of its armed forces. 

Why the world cares about Ukraine’s training

While Kyiv has begun receiving a long-awaited tranche of US military equipment and weaponry, the dwindling manpower poses a significant obstacle to maximizing the effectiveness of these resources.

In response to the manpower shortage, member states of NATO, including the Baltic States and France, are considering plans to deploy military trainers in Ukraine to assist in preparing new waves of troops. However, this proposal has drawn criticism from Russia and pro-Kremlin pundits, who view it as an escalation by NATO that crosses a red line.

Meanwhile, Russia has ramped up its military efforts, rapidly recruiting new troops and accelerating production in its defense manufacturing industry. Analysts suggest that Russia’s ability to resupply the battlefield with troops and equipment indicates its capacity to withstand heavy losses for an extended period.

These developments underscore the complex dynamics at play in the region, highlighting the delicate balance of power and the potential for further escalation in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. 

Ukraine’s struggle to recruit and train new personnel amid the threat of long-range Russian strikes highlights the precarious security situation facing the country. The vulnerability of Ukraine’s rear areas to such attacks further complicates efforts to conduct training effectively within the country.

Given these challenges, Kyiv may indeed face limited options and could increasingly turn to NATO states for assistance, particularly in training personnel to operate new Western-supplied equipment. Utilizing facilities and expertise in NATO member states may offer a safer and more conducive environment for training, mitigating the risks posed by potential Russian aggression.

Collaborating with NATO allies not only provides Ukraine with access to advanced training resources but also strengthens its interoperability with Western military forces. This cooperation enhances Ukraine’s defense capabilities and reinforces its strategic partnership with NATO, potentially deterring further aggression from Russia.

However, such reliance on external training facilities also underscores the urgency for Ukraine to bolster its domestic military infrastructure and develop safe training areas within its borders. This would reduce dependence on foreign assistance and enhance the country’s self-sufficiency in defense preparedness. 

Overall, Ukraine’s efforts to navigate these challenges reflect the complex geopolitical dynamics in the region and the imperative for strategic partnerships to safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity against external threats.

The challenges faced by Ukraine in recruiting and training new personnel amidst the threat of long-range Russian strikes highlight the urgency of addressing the country’s security needs. With the vulnerability of Ukraine’s rear areas to potential Russian attacks, conducting training within the country becomes increasingly risky.

While Ukraine prioritizes training and skill development, Russia’s tactics have been characterized by a willingness to sacrifice inexperienced troops for strategic gains.

Kyiv may indeed be compelled to explore options such as sending personnel to NATO states for training, particularly when it comes to familiarizing Ukrainian operators with new Western-supplied equipment. 

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Ukrainian officials are concerned that Russian advances could gain significant momentum by the summer unless their allies can increase the supply of ammunition, according to a person familiar with their analysis. 

Internal assessments of the situation on the battlefield from Kyiv are growing increasingly bleak as Ukrainian forces struggle to hold off Russian attacks while rationing the number of shells they can fire. 

Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said Thursday that mistakes by frontline commanders had compounded the problems facing Ukraine’s defense around Avdiivka, which was captured by Russian forces this month. Syrskyi said he’d sent in more troops and ammunition to bolster Ukrainian positions.

Pessimism among Ukraine and its allies has been mounting for weeks as they’ve seen Russian forces seize the initiative on the frontline with vital aid from the US held up in Congress. The fall of Avdiivka and several nearby villages is fueling fears that Kyiv’s defenses may not be able to hold.

Those losses should act as a wakeup call to Ukraine’s allies, a European official said.

“Ukraine can start losing the war this year,” Michael Kofman, a specialist on Russia and Ukraine at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said on the War on the Rocks podcast.

What many do not realize is a defeat in the Ukraine will cause western powers collapsing with calls for stronger leadership taking over. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin hasn’t given up his original goal of seizing major cities including the capital Kyiv and Odesa, according to Ukrainian intelligence assessments, the person said, asking for anonymity to discuss matters that aren’t public. 

If Russian forces reached Odesa, they would be able to shut off Ukraine’s crucial grain export routes through the Black Sea and open up access to Moldova, where the breakaway region of Transnistria on Wednesday appealed to Moscow for political support.

Depending on the results of the current campaign, Russia will decide whether to continue with a slow, grinding advance, or to accumulate resources for a bigger strike to break through Ukrainian lines this summer, the person close to Ukraine’s leadership said.

Putin on Thursday repeated that he still plans to achieve the goals set out at the start of the invasion, which have remained unchanged since 2022, during an address to his Federal Assembly.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Sunday that munitions shortages are affecting the battlefield situation and warned that Russia is planning a new offensive in the spring or early summer.

“It will be difficult for us in the coming months because there are fluctuations in the US that have an impact on some countries, though the European Union showed it is capable of being a leader with its support,” Zelenskiy said.

With Ukrainian forces desperate for more ammunition, some allies, led by the Czech Republic, are looking into buying around 800,000 artillery shells from outside the EU to give to Ukraine.

A major offensive would still be a challenge for the Kremlin after two years of war that have depleted its forces. Russia’s efforts to take Kyiv, Kharkiv and move on Odesa in the early weeks of the war failed spectacularly.

Despite Ukraine’s shortages, Russia would need far more soldiers but also heavy tanks and vehicles to launch an offensive, Admiral Rob Bauer, NATO’s military committee chairman, said in an interview on Feb. 17. So far, Moscow hasn’t been able to ramp up production quickly enough in those areas, he said.

Putin “has more artillery, he has an ability to replace a certain amount of missiles every month, which he’s using, but he’s not been fully successful in terms of the increase in, for example, tanks and armored vehicles,” Bauer said.

He pointed to recent Ukrainian reports that, despite the loss of Avdiivka, Russian troops were killed at a high rate of seven for every soldier Kyiv lost.

“The one-to-seven ratio means he will need a lot of forces to defeat the Ukrainians, “Bauer said.

Ukraine’s strategy is to try to hold the front line as much as possible until the second half of the year, when it may get F-16 fighter jets and western ammunition production is due to ramp up. That would allow Kyiv to plan for another possible counteroffensive in 2025.

Aliaksandr Kudrytski and Jessica Loudis.

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South Korean law prohibits the export of weapons to countries in active conflict. With this, Seoul found it difficult to deliver weapons directly to Kyiv.

South Korea is quiet favorite of gun buyers around the world. And this was achieved during the country’s decades of efforts to protect itself from North Korea. The threat that never goes away forces Seoul to build a domestic arms industry. And in the end, this sector achieves economies of scale obtained from large export sales.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), there has been a drastic increase in South Korea’s ranking in terms of arms sales. In 2000, the country was still in 31st place in terms of arms supply. This ranking skyrocketed to eighth in the period 2017 to 2021.

South Korea is an increasingly important arms exporter globally. They recently even signed a deal to sell hundreds of tanks to European countries, including Poland which is a member of NATO.

On the first leg of his Asia tour on Monday (30/1/2023), NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg urged South Korea to increase military support to Ukraine, citing other countries that have changed their policy of not providing weapons to countries in conflict following Russia’s invasion.

Stoltenberg was speaking in Seoul, the first stop on a trip that will also include Japan and is aimed at strengthening ties with Western allies in Asia in the face of the war in Ukraine and rising competition with China.

Stoltenberg’s visit is seen as part of efforts to improve NATO’s relations with Asian regional democracy allies in the face of the Ukraine conflict and increasing competition with China.

Stoltenberg urged South Korea to do more to help Ukraine. According to him, in Ukraine, there is an urgent need for more supplies of ammunition. In his talks with South Korea, Stoltenberg also mentioned that several countries, such as Germany and Norway, had finally decided to revise the old policy of not exporting weapons to countries in conflict due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“If we believe in freedom, democracy, if we don’t want autocracies and totalitarians to win then they need weapons,” he said speaking at the Chey Institute in Seoul.

NATO and the United States are trying to drag their allies to the brink of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This situation triggers a change toward global conflict.

“NATO dragging South Korea ever deeper into the abyss of aid over Ukraine is measuring how determined Seoul is to join the US-led military alliance. Its ultimate aim is to widen the loop towards Asia Pacific through regional allies,” the Global Times published on Tuesday (31/1/2023).

NATO, behind the scenes of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, was trying to convince its allies to form a bigger camp to provide political and military support to Ukraine. All NATO allies and the US must provide whatever assistance Ukraine requires. South Korea as a country that is considered advanced in the field of military industry must provide greater arms assistance to Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy sought Western support for his country in surprise visits to Britain and France on Wednesday (8/2/23), in a dramatic speech to the UK Parliament, and then flying to Paris to meet the French and German leaders over dinner at the Elysee Palace.

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