Once more Tajikistan comes on the radar screen. Who will be the next president of Tajikistan? How is the ban on the hijab helping the deradicalization of Tajik society? What is the role of the Chinese and Russian influence? And how is the relationship with the European Union coming along? 

Every year we face a plethora of Tajik issues, for example corruption and drug usage involving officials, now the ban on face veils, or the newest version a ban on black clothes. The desecration of the grave of one of leaders and the promotions of killer squad of the ministry of interiors. 

Despite the ICC dispatches a fact-finding mission on Tajikistan and reports back we need to ask the question what has changed, if anything? So far very little, to near nothing. Observers of the Tajik issue reports an uptick of Chinese involvement, or Russian press gang related issues to force Tajiks to army service in the Ukraine. 

The German foreign ministry is surprisingly mum about the situation in Tajikistan. The trust level is always low. Maybe the new “Iron Lady” will bring changes to the foreign relations debacle with Tajikistan. It’s about time. 

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Negotiations will begin for both countries on Tuesday in Luxembourg, the Belgian Presidency of the Council of the European Union said on X.

The move comes at a critical time for both nations with Ukraine in the middle of an invasion by Russia and Moldova facing a Russian-led insurgence by a breakaway state.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky thanked the European Union for its “robust political will” to begin negotiations with his country despite the current Russian aggression.

“We look forward to next week,” Zelensky said on X. “We congratulate our Moldova friends on this significant step toward our shared European future. We will make the EU stronger together. I am grateful to everyone on our team who worked hard to make this historic step a reality.

“Millions of Ukrainians and indeed generations of our people are realizing their European dream. Ukraine is returning to Europe, where it has belonged for centuries, as a full-fledged member of the European community.”

Moldova President Maia Sandu confirmed on social media that she also signed a decree allowing accession negotiations with the European Union to move forward.

“Becoming an EU member is our path to peace, prosperity and a better life for all citizens,” Sandu said on X. “Wishing our delegation every success as they officially launch negotiations in Luxembourg next week.”

The European Union announced earlier this month that Moldova and Ukraine both met the requirements to join the group. All 27 countries must agree to allow them in. Hungary and its President Viktor Orban are expected to be the main roadblock for both countries.

Orban, who has maintained a close relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, had criticized Ukraine for its past corruption.

Source : UPI

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Brussels/London (16/6 – 33.33) The defeat of the Russian Federation is a foregone conclusion. It is a reality. It is a must. Victory for Ukraine is non-negotiable. It is an absolute necessity. As ironclad as Brussels, London, Berlin or Washington. As ironclad as the Normandy battlefield, Waterloo, Verdun, or many other spots on the planet.

We, the ones living in this generation that saw the war erupted right in front of our eyes, owe it to the young men and women in the Ukraine who gave their lives for this conviction. An excessive number of sceptics advocate for surrender. We have succumbed to the mindset of defeatism. Europe cannot tolerate this culture of apparent defeat.

It seems that the Europeans have lost their capability to win wars. The military leaders are merely overweight theorists. Our economies are still gearing towards a situation of a so-so war. Our politicians are populists, administrative pencil-pushers. The context of war has given way to fears.

We Are At War!

It is the reality in the European Union that we are at war. The French belief of “if you are in combat, you better pray that you have an American on your side” does not hold true any longer.

Americans are the fair-weather friends; and what looks like it, now NATO is more than the US. Regardless of the internal squabbles of political morons or not.

Here is where the grievance from Putin takes hold. Stability talks, sudden withdrawal from Afghanistan walks. It gotten under the skin of Putin. And he says so. The consequence: 13 Marines dead and millions of Afghans living under Taliban rule again.

But NATO has an obligation to respond if Article 5 is called. Like it or not. Before Trump withdrawal from NATO happens, he must convince the U.S. congress to withdraw from a treaty agreement. And that’s a long way off. So, we must calm ourselves and Keep Buggering On, a phrase made famous by Sir Winston Churchill.

Expert assured the U.S. president can’t do anything, realistically that is likely, however realpolitik will determine the future. We must beat the Russians. Even if it irks us that the investment is massive. Defense is not free, neither it is for the Ukrainians. Many of U.S. compatriots are complete anti-Ukraine. A common misperception in the current political climate of rumours and counter-rumours. An anti-Ukrainian policy has swept the Americans off their feet.

In the interwar years we seen similar trends. Strong anti-European, pro-Hitler movements. Today, it’s the same. The Republican base is completely mesmerized by the idea Russia is not “their” war. Nothing further holds true. Its idiotic, it really is, notion that Russia is not their enemy coming from the academic side of the school of international affairs has its roots in the interwar period.

President Woodrow Wilson was able to navigate neutrality in World War I for about three years, and to win 1916 re-election with the slogan “He kept us out of war.” The neutrality policy was supported by the tradition of shunning foreign entanglements, and by the large population of immigrants from Europe with divided loyalties in the conflict.

Senator Hiram Johnson, of California, denounced the League of Nations as a “gigantic war trust.”. Most of the sentiment bore a reassertion of nativist and inward-looking policy. By the summer of 1940, France suffered a stunning defeat by Germans, and Britain was the only democratic enemy of Germany. In the summer of 1940, 67% of Americans believed that a German-Italian victory would endanger the United States, that if such an event occurred 88% supported “arm[ing] to the teeth at any expense to be prepared for any trouble”, and that 71% favoured “the immediate adoption of compulsory military training for all young men”.

Life wrote that the survey showed “the emergence of a majority attitude very different from that of six or even three months ago”. A same defeatist culture has entered the political discourse in Europe and the United States in 2024.

Trump, a transnational short term, “Mr. Fix-It” has negotiated a 2% GDP increase for defense spending. However, his political rhetoric will be put in a firm place by the boys with the big pants, like Putin, President Xi from China, or others. Polls indicate growing impatience among Americans with the war in Ukraine with 2023 polls showing just 17% of Americans think their country is “not doing enough” to support Ukraine. This percentage is the lowest since the war began. Trump is riding high on this public sentiment.

After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Republican Party has been divided on Ukraine’s aid, believing that it is not in the interests of the United States to get involved in a “proxy war” against Russia. Former President Donald Trump has called on the United States to push for peace talks rather than continue to support Ukraine.

Who lies better?

Remember the phrase “Not one inch” expansion eastwards? Currently whenever the Russian Federation needs a bogeyman it blames the United States. But after examining the historical facts the situation is more complicated.

It is fact in 2001 Vladimir Putin spoke in the German Bundestag and consider joining NATO. But the slippery slope was the invasion of Iraq. For the Russians this was the red line not to be crossed. But it was.

Munich followed and the rest is the proverbial history. The Lithuanian prime minister Kalla was quoting Soviet-time foreign minister Andrei Gromyko, and she noted that he had said negotiation tactics of the Soviet Union involved three things.

“First, demand the maximum,” she said. “Do not ask, but demand something that has never been yours. “Second, present ultimatums. “And third, do not give up one inch in negotiations because there will always be people in the West who will offer you something. “And then in the end you will have one third or even half of something you didn’t have before. So, we have to keep that in mind all the time.”

The peace offer, if we like to call it as such, from Vladimir Putin instructing senior diplomats on June 14, 2024, in Moscow speaks from conditions. And here is where it gets tricky. Demanding the NATO to halt the Ukraine to join will be rejected. And, demanding now four (4), not two (2) provinces will be equally dead in the water.

Nobody has yet asked the hard question. Why does Russia need this land? Creating a security buffer can be done on the inside your own territory. Hence the narrative the Kremlin put out is short lived. Truth be told, Moscow was hoping to annex the rich pickings of the Ukraine. Coal, water, “black soil” rich on minerals are just some of the resources in the region that was fought over already by the Germans.

We Must Win!

It is therefore clear; we must adopt a culture of winning. It is costly, but we must win. Many young men and woman will be laid to rest for the concept of defending their land. But the Ukraine Must Win.

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s itinerary for his unscheduled visit to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, remains undisclosed.

In an unannounced visit, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky lands in Saudi Arabia, on Wednesday, and gets greeted by Saudi officials, including the national security advisor and ambassador to Kiev, according to reports by the official Saudi Press Agency.

As of now, no details regarding Zelensky’s itinerary have been made public.

In recent weeks, Zelensky has been on a global tour to garner support and encourage attendance for an upcoming summit in Switzerland this weekend. His travels have included visits to traditional European Union allies, as well as countries in the Middle East and Asia that maintain closer ties with Russia.

Argentina’s president to join Ukraine summit in Switzerland

Argentinian President Javier Milei has opted to attend the forthcoming summit in Switzerland, according to reports from the Clarin newspaper.

He will be accompanied by the economy and defense ministers. Initially, Argentine media indicated that Milei intended to skip the G7 summit in Italy and the Switzerland conference, along with other European events, to be in Argentina for national holidays. However, he later revised his schedule to include the G7 summit.

The newspaper reported on Tuesday that Milei has once more altered his plans at the eleventh hour and will also journey to Switzerland. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky purportedly conveyed a special message to Milei, urging him to at least be present at the opening ceremony of the conference.

Argentine Economy Minister Luis Caputo and Defense Minister Luis Petri will accompany Milei to Switzerland, as reported by the newspaper. It is also worth noting that Petri is anticipated to participate in a meeting of the contact group concerning Ukraine’s defense.

Switzerland is set to host a high-level conference on the war in Ukraine at the Buergenstock resort near Lucerne from June 15-16. 90 countries and organizations have affirmed their attendance at the conference.

Source: English

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The seriousness of the debate can be seen at the UK sponsored conference on AI at Bletchley Park. Following this was the adaptation of the European law on Artificial Intelligence. 28 countries at the summit, including the United States, China, and the European Union, have issued an agreement known as the Bletchley Declaration, calling for international co-operation to manage the challenges and risks of artificial intelligence. Emphasis has been placed on regulating “Frontier AI”, a term for the latest and most powerful AI systems. Concerns that have been raised at the summit include the potential use of AI for terrorism, criminal activity, and warfare, as well as existential risk posed to humanity as a whole.

Having such a platform between the world’s two largest players in AI will be increasingly important as global efforts to regulate AI and manage the associated risks gather momentum. Earlier this year, the United Nations General Assembly adopted a landmark resolution on AI without a vote, capping off a period that saw several global summits being held on issues related to AI, such as the Responsible AI in the Military Domain (REAIM) summit at The Hague and the AI Safety summit at Bletchley Park in the United Kingdom.

While these circumstances should not be surprising, the question remains: what can be meaningfully achieved in terms of global governance and arms control for AI? Platforms such as the REAIM summit and AI Safety summit have featured norm-building efforts such as a call to action and declaration, respectively, while the Group of Governmental Experts (GGE) discussing the regulation of LAWS at the UN adopted 11 guiding principles in 2019.

Nevertheless, the overall temperature of relations will continue to play a part in how effective subsequent bilateral talks on AI will be. Managing both related and unrelated derailers will be important, especially since it is impossible to fully compartmentalise dialogue on specific issues like AI from the broader state of bilateral relations.Some of the questions ringing loud include the systemic failures of Israel’s intelligence community and its sophisticated early warning systems to detect Hamas’ operational plans in advance, Israel’s prolonged political fragmentation and internal protests that undermined military readiness, and why the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) units deployed in the “Gaza Envelope” were overran.

By William Schrodinger  

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The parties exchanged views on acute topics of interregional cooperation between Central Asia and the EU and confirmed interest in developing promising projects between Kazakhstan and the EU.

Nurtleu welcomed regular and dynamic interaction in the transport and logistics area and expressed readiness to start consultations on the Schengen visa simplification process for Kazakh citizens.

Hakala noted that the EU attaches “great importance to its relations with Kazakhstan and considers the country a key partner in Central Asia.” She expressed the willingness of the EU to continue effective interaction with Kazakhstan to achieve common goals, such as sustainable development, support for peaceful processes, stimulation of economic growth, and support for reforms.

Mora commended the current state of relations between Astana and Brussels and said that the EU is making an effort to deepen cooperation with Kazakhstan and bring it into one of the priority areas of its foreign policy.

The parties also reviewed the implementation of the agreements reached during the second EU-Central Asia Summit on June 2 in Cholpon-Ata, the Kyrgyz Republic, and the preparations for Central Asia – EU Ministerial Meeting, which will take place this autumn.

Source: The Astana Times

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Deputy Prime Minister – Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan Murat Nurtleu paid a working visit to Brussels and held talks with high-ranking representatives of the European Union to discuss the current agenda of bilateral and multilateral cooperation and promising areas for its further development, Tengrinews.kz reports citing the ministry .

As noted, the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy – Vice President of the European Commission Josep Borrell warmly welcomed the first visit of Murat Nurtleu as head of the Kazakh Foreign Ministry to the EU capital.

During the meeting, the diplomats reviewed a wide range of multifaceted relations between Astana and Brussels under the Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement between Kazakhstan and the EU. The regular nature and increased dynamics of political dialogue at the highest and high levels, a noticeable increase in economic cooperation and the volume of European investments were noted.

As specified, the parties paid special attention to discussing practical steps to develop cooperation in the fields of energy, transport and logistics, digitalization, civil aviation, production and use of critical raw materials. Measures were considered to strengthen cooperation in the development of education and science, advanced technologies and innovations .

During the meeting, Borrell underlined the firm commitment of European diplomacy to further expand and strengthen cooperation with Astana through the implementation of a number of specific measures and projects that will respond to the significant untapped potential of cooperation.

“We are closely following the modernization of your country and support President Tokayev’s large-scale political reforms aimed at building a Just Kazakhstan. This year, the European Union and Kazakhstan celebrate the 30th anniversary of diplomatic relations, and during this time we have laid a strong foundation for partnership,” the High Representative said. EU.

According to the agency, the interlocutors exchanged views on topical issues on the international agenda, including regional security, cooperation in Central Asia and the situation in Afghanistan. The parties also discussed measures to mitigate the possible negative consequences of European sanctions for the Kazakh economy.

At a meeting with the Chief Advisor to the President of the European Council for Foreign Policy Simon Mordu, the Minister noted the productive visit of President Charles Michel to Astana in October 2022 and the success of his first meeting with the leaders of Central Asian countries.

The interlocutors stressed that these events gave a powerful impetus to the further strengthening of bilateral and interregional cooperation. The parties are working on preparing a second meeting in this format in the near future, which is designed to continue the process of deepening interregional cooperation between Central Asia and the EU.

During the visit, which took place in a business like and constructive atmosphere, the minister presented Borrell and Mord with high state awards – the Dostyk orders of the first and second degrees, respectively – for their significant contribution to strengthening and developing cooperation between the Republic of Kazakhstan and the EU.

In general, Nurtleu’s visit to the capital of the European Union made it possible to outline priority areas for cooperation, discuss specific measures and steps to further deepen relations between the parties.

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For some time has Tajikistan on the verge of a near-failed state status. Oppressive to its core, the Tajik president Emomali Rahmon and the Tajik version of the KGB have returned to tactics first invented by the German Nazi-secret police, the Gestapo to silence regime critics “Sippenhaftung”. According to Websters, Sippenhaftung is defined as “liability of all the members of a family for the crimes of one member”.

Speaking up against the regime of Emomali Rahmon, who is a leftover from the old Soviet times, is not against the law, however the regime in Dushanbe thinks otherwise. Rahmon and his merry men are using collective family guilt straight out of the Nazi Gestapo play book.

Unconfirmed reports suggest president Emomali Rahmon is facing an internal struggle between his son Rustam Emomali, the chairman of the State Committee for National Security (GKNB), Saymumin Yatimov, 65, and Rustam’s elder sister, Ozoda Rahmon, the Presidential chief of staff of president.

In May 2008, a rumour circulated that Rustum Emomali had shot his uncle in a business dispute.

Today, Tajikistan is outdoing Russia by silencing critics of the regime. Like Vladimir Putin, who is Shanghaiing penal colonies into war service in what is increasingly an unpopular war in Ukraine, the Tajik regime feels the need to use same Nazi tactics to silence voices of dissent.

Her son, Sherzod Mamadjonov aka Abdurahmon, who is a German resident, is known in Tajikistan for his YouTube blog criticizing the Tajik government for its restrictive policies toward practicing Muslims in the tightly controlled country. Issues he had addressed in the past include efforts by law enforcement personnel to compel women to cast off their hijabs, bans on children going to mosque, and the arbitrary arrest of pious believers.

The Tajik Interior Ministry in early January arrested the mother of the popular YouTube blogger Sherzod Mamadjonov. Shohida Mamadjonova was arrested on suspicion of ‘organizing extremist activities’. Shohida had been missing for five days after she was summoned to a police station in the town of Vahdat, near Dushanbe.

Authorities in Tajikistan have resorted to a familiar trick from the Nazi playbook.

Mamadjonov said that his mother had been summoned by the police where they ordered her to persuade her son to return to Tajikistan. As Mamadjonov explained in one video, his mother has been summoned for questioning by the police repeatedly.

“My mother was summoned for interrogation at the Interior Ministry in Vakhdat. She was told that her son had one chance, that if he returned to Tajikistan, the president would grant him an amnesty. Otherwise, he would be returned by force, and would not be amnestied.”

European officials called the charges a politically motivated attack on the mother of the blogger in exile. The regime in Tajikistan use of Nazi terror tactics raising the questions about what is next for Tajikistan. Are we going to have a resurrection of concentration camps to house the large number of Pamiri’s? Or wearing the blue star with a “P”?

If history is a teacher, it is said that suppression of dissent and prosecution of political opponents is a short-lived tactic. Eventually the regime will fall. Very few remember the dictators, the Romanian Ceausescu and General Gaddafi. Time works against regimes.

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Kazakhstan is a crucial partner for the European Union (EU) in Central Asia, said European Council President Charles Michel at an Oct. 27 meeting in Astana with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, reported the Akorda press service.

“Strong cooperation between Central Asian countries is key to the security and development of the region. Today’s meeting is much more than just a policy dialogue between two regions. It is a powerful symbol of our reinforced cooperation and a strong signal of the EU’s commitment to this region,” said Michel.

President Tokayev highlighted that the country’s foreign policy priority remains the development of a strategic partnership with the EU. He noted that Kazakhstan is the only Central Asian country to sign the EU Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement.

“Your visit provides an excellent opportunity to celebrate significant achievements across the spectrum of the partnership between Kazakhstan and the EU. Next year we will celebrate the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations. We consider your official visit to Kazakhstan as evidence of mutual interest in bringing our relations to a new level,” said Tokayev.

In a joint statement, the two leaders welcomed the constructive dialogue between Kazakhstan and the EU on human rights and the rule of law. The European Council president praised the country’s significant reform plan for advancing its political modernization and vision of a Just Kazakhstan and its commitment to a complete and transparent investigation of the January events.

The joint statement paid particular attention to avoiding an unintended negative impact on Kazakhstan’s economy of the EU’s sanctions. Michel reiterated that EU sanctions were not directed against third countries and highlighted the importance of international sanctions being neither evaded nor circumvented. Both sides also discussed the relocation of European manufacturing companies, the products of which are not subject to sanctions, to Kazakhstan.

Tokayev and Michel exchanged views on regional and international agenda, including Afghanistan. The sides underlined the importance of strengthening regional dialogue in Central Asia, which is a key to prosperity, resilience, and sustainable development of the region.

Given the current geopolitical situation, President Tokayev and President Michel noted the importance of expanding existing and developing new international transport corridors between Europe and Central Asia to facilitate global production and supply chains. They also discussed the opportunities offered by the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route and options for its development and the role of other transport connections in the region.

The meeting also touched upon cooperation in critical raw materials, including rare earth metals. The sides confirmed their willingness to develop a strategic partnership in this field. They welcomed the signing of the memorandum of understanding between Kazakhstan and the EU on a strategic partnership on sustainable raw materials, batteries and renewable hydrogen value chains.

The two presidents noted that climate change is one of the most pressing challenges to which Kazakhstan and the EU need to adapt their economic activities. The problem of global warming requires urgent and effective action by the global community. Both sides underscored the importance of strengthening expert, technological and technical cooperation to adapt their economies to low-carbon development. 

Source : Astana Times

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