Negotiations will begin for both countries on Tuesday in Luxembourg, the Belgian Presidency of the Council of the European Union said on X.

The move comes at a critical time for both nations with Ukraine in the middle of an invasion by Russia and Moldova facing a Russian-led insurgence by a breakaway state.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky thanked the European Union for its “robust political will” to begin negotiations with his country despite the current Russian aggression.

“We look forward to next week,” Zelensky said on X. “We congratulate our Moldova friends on this significant step toward our shared European future. We will make the EU stronger together. I am grateful to everyone on our team who worked hard to make this historic step a reality.

“Millions of Ukrainians and indeed generations of our people are realizing their European dream. Ukraine is returning to Europe, where it has belonged for centuries, as a full-fledged member of the European community.”

Moldova President Maia Sandu confirmed on social media that she also signed a decree allowing accession negotiations with the European Union to move forward.

“Becoming an EU member is our path to peace, prosperity and a better life for all citizens,” Sandu said on X. “Wishing our delegation every success as they officially launch negotiations in Luxembourg next week.”

The European Union announced earlier this month that Moldova and Ukraine both met the requirements to join the group. All 27 countries must agree to allow them in. Hungary and its President Viktor Orban are expected to be the main roadblock for both countries.

Orban, who has maintained a close relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, had criticized Ukraine for its past corruption.

Source : UPI

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Tajikistan’s existential project to build the colossal 335-meter-high Roghun hydropower dam is proceeding apace, but costs are spiralling, and to a level that is making it hard to see where the government is going to find the funds needed to finish the work.

To complicate matters for Dushanbe, this is happening against the backdrop of calls from environmental watchdogs for international development lenders to pause the allocation of any future funds to Tajikistan pending a fresh assessment of the project.

The extent of the budget overshoot is striking.

In a press conference on February 16, Finance Minister Faiziddin Kahhorzoda revealed that the government spent 5.2 billion somoni ($475 million) on construction work at Roghun in 2023. That was 2.7 billion somoni more than had been planned, he said.

The projected government spend for this year, meanwhile, is 5 billion somoni. It is projected that 2.2 billion somoni can be solicited from foreign-based parties, Kahhorzoda said.

When work on Roghun, a project that was in its origins the brainchild of Soviet engineers, resumed in earnest in 2008, the estimate for the overall cost stood at $3 billion. This climbed upward through the years.

In 2016, officials threw around the figure of $3.9 billion. In mid-2022, the Energy Ministry announced $5 billion would be needed for full project implementation. 

On February 1, Energy Minister Daler Juma offered a new forecast: $6.2 billion. That is high, although admittedly quite a bit short of the $8 billion prognostication he volunteered in an interview to Reuters news agency in June 2022. 

While the budget balloons, the timetable is sliding

Once completed, Roghun will be fitted with six 600 megawatt turbines, amounting to a total installed capacity of 3,600 megawatts. As Milan-based WeBuild (formerly Salini Impregilo), which has been contracted to implement the project, has claimed on its website, that is “the equivalent of three nuclear power plants.”

The first generating units were put into operation in November 2018 and September 2019 to much clamor, but there has been limited progress since then. 

State media accentuates the upside. It cites energy officials as saying that while insufficient water pressure is causing delays, the generating units in place have to date produced around 7 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity. They furthermore value that volume of electricity at 1.5 billion somoni ($137 million).

Current annual electricity production in Tajikistan, much of which is accounted for by the Soviet-vintage Nurek hydropower plant, is around 17 billion kilowatt-hours.

Putting this together, it implies that Roghun has, since the first generating unit began working, likely contributed to well under one-tenth of Tajikistan’s electricity output. 

In 2019, managers of the Roghun hydroelectric plant reportedly predicted — possibly speaking in the spirit of hope rather than pragmatism — that a third generating unit would be installed within another two years. All six units were to be operational by 2026, according to that timetable. 

That was before COVID-19, however. The pandemic caused a major slowdown on work at Roghun along with much other economic activity in the country. 

Another deadline is now in place

“We intend to put the third unit of the Roghun hydroelectric power station into operation in 2025,” President Emomali Rahmon said in an address to the nation in December.

He noted in that speech that the project is employing 15,000 laborers and technicians.

When Rahmon speaks of Roghun in his speeches, he couches the project in talk of the “bright future” awaiting the country and that it should serve as a “source of pride” for every Tajik citizen.

A more sober reality is that Roghun is part of the race against time to keep the country’s economy afloat.

Despite the additional productive capacity added by Roghun, the population still has to endure annual rationing of electricity.

When the temperature sinks below a certain level, output from the Nurek hydropower plant grinds to a near-halt. Under the annually imposed economy regime due to end in March, as is customary, households outside the country’s largest urban centers endure blackouts from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m and then from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m.

Meanwhile, the rate of population growth means that demand for electricity will continue surging. 

The World Bank in 2022 estimated that Tajikistan had the “youngest and fastest growing population in the Europe and Central Asia region.”

“Children under six years old comprise 17 percent of Tajikistan’s population, while roughly one of every three people is under 15 years of age,” the bank said at the time.

State statisticians have said that the current population of Tajikistan is just a whisker over 10.1 million. Fresh figures from last week, based on birth and death data, showed a population increase of 200,000 in 2023. That is a 2 percent rise.

Getting a clear and reliable idea of how much has been spent on Roghun over the past 16 years is tricky. Juma, the Energy Minister, threw out the figure of $3 billion in 2022. 

Dushanbe-based news outlet Asia-Plus cracked some numbers to come up with an updated estimate earlier this month and arrived at around 40 billion somoni, or $4 billion.

Considering current projections, which Juma says were calculated with the assistance of international consultants, that leaves $2.2 billion to go.

Tajikistan makes no secret of the fact that it is hoping for white knight investors to swoop in and provide the cash needed to get it over the line. 

But its efforts to get foreign funding so far have exposed it to considerable debt-servicing expenditure. 

In September 2017, the National Bank issued $500 million worth of eurobonds on the international market. That venture means Tajikistan is on the hook for around $850 million to be paid to investors by 2027.

Important chunks are arriving from here and there, though.

In December, the state-backed Saudi Fund for Development announced it was under a development loan agreement with Tajikistan contributing $100 million to fund the Roghun project.

A few months earlier, in May, China-dominated development lender Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank had reportedly — according to President Rahmon’s office — pledged to extend a soft $500 million loan to Dushanbe for the same purpose. Talk on this commitment has gone a little quiet since then.

Back in 2022, a representative for the European Union’s investment arm, the European Investment Bank, told Reuters that it was exploring becoming “the largest investor” in Roghun. That conversation too has withered for reasons unreported.

Environmental concerns are another factor.

Last month, a coalition of nongovernmental groups — Rivers without Boundaries, the NGO Forum on Asian Development Banks and the Bankwatch Network — issued a collective appeal to development banks to demand public discussions on an updated environmental assessment of Roghun before parting with any funds. The World Bank-backed environmental impact assessment conducted in 2014 is now woefully out of date, the coalition argued in its statement.

“Over the last 10 years we accumulated new knowledge about the dynamics of climate change, new factors of impact on the hydrological regime of the Vakhsh River and the entire Amu Darya basin,” Evgeny Simonov, international coordinator for Rivers without Boundaries, was cited as saying.

“Even the most superficial analysis shows that potential transboundary impacts of the [Roghun] hydropower plant are enormous, and their consideration in the new environmental assessment … is practically non-existent.”

Source: Eurasia

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Infighting over the succession and growing frustration in the regions could shatter the stability that the Tajik president has been building for so many years.

Next year will mark thirty years of Emomali Rahmon’s presidency in Tajikistan, now the only country in Central Asia that has not seen a change of leadership since the early 1990s. Unsurprisingly, there have been rumors of an imminent transition of power for a decade.

The name of the successor is no secret: it’s Rahmon’s son, thirty-six-year-old Rustam Emomali. But there is no consensus within the president’s large family over the succession. Some of the president’s other children have their own ambitions to run the country, which could upset plans for the transition.

President Rahmon is seventy-one years old, and has reportedly suffered numerous health issues. Arrangements for the transition have long been in place, but events keep getting in the way of its implementation: first the pandemic and its economic fallout, and then the street protests in neighboring Kazakhstan in January 2022, which frightened the Tajik leader and persuaded him it was not a good time to step down. Even Turkmenistan has seen a power transition in recent years. Now Tajikistan is expected to implement its own in 2024.

Rustam has already headed a number of government agencies. Since 2017, he has been mayor of Dushanbe: a post he has combined since 2020 with that of speaker of the upper house of parliament, to whom power would automatically pass if the current president were to step down early.

His supporters argue that as the capital’s mayor, he has improved the city, supported youth initiatives, and started to form his own team of young technocrats. Some are counting on him to carry out at least limited reforms once he is in power, such as those seen in neighboring Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.

Not everyone believes Rustam is ready to take over, however. The future president is an unknown quantity for most Tajiks. All of his public appearances are prerecorded and accompanied by information read out by the broadcaster, meaning that people have not even heard him speak. His nickname on social media is “the great mute.”

More worryingly, the heir apparent has reportedly shot and wounded two people: his own uncle in 2008, and—just last year—the head of the State Committee for National Security, Saimumin Yatimov, supposedly for refusing to carry out orders.

There are those within the presidential family who do not want to see Rustam succeed his father because they fear losing prestigious posts in government and business. They are indignant that there are no relatives within the team he is building. The current president cannot possibly keep everyone happy, and this could threaten the transition, as ambitious clan members prepare to battle it out for the top job in order to retain their privileges.

Rahmon has seven daughters and two sons. The most ambitious of them is generally considered to be the second daughter Ozoda, who has headed up the presidential administration since 2016. She is very experienced, works well with her staff, and has the trust of the security services. Unsurprisingly, given the alleged shooting incident, there is no love lost between Rustam and the country’s main security official Yatimov, who has reportedly been paving the way for Ozoda’s candidacy. In addition, her husband Jamoliddin Nuraliev is also considered a very influential figure, having been deputy chair of the country’s central bank for over seven years.

Another contender for the presidency could be Rahmon’s fifth daughter, Ruhshona, a seasoned diplomat who is well versed in Tajikistan’s political affairs. Her husband is the influential oligarch Shamsullo Sohibov, who made his fortune thanks to his family connection to the president. Together with his brothers, he controls entire sectors of the economy, including transport, media, and banking. Change at the top could deprive the Sohibov clan of both influence and money, so Ruhshona and her husband may well throw their hats into the ring.

They might get the backing of Rahmon’s other children, who also control various sectors of the economy, including air travel (the third daughter, Tahmina) and pharmacies (the fourth daughter, Parvina). There are also plenty of Rahmon’s more distant relatives who owe their fortunes to the president and fear losing their positions under his successor.

Rahmon has relied on the loyalty of various relatives to ensure the stable functioning of his regime. But overly vociferous squabbles within the family could destabilize the situation, and for precisely this reason, Rahmon has tried to temper their ambition. Ruhshona, for example, was sent to the UK as Tajik ambassador to stop her from interfering in the plans for the transition. Her oligarch husband went with her.

Nor is the heir apparent himself outside the fray. There is evidence that Rustam was involved in leaking information to the media about his sister Ozoda’s alleged affair with her driver: something that, in patriarchal Tajikistan, caused serious damage to her reputation. There are also rumors that Ozoda’s main ally Yatimov will be retired from his post as head of the security services and replaced with a close friend of Rustam, Shohruh Saidov.

Right now, international circumstances are conducive to a swift transition. Tajikistan’s relations with its trickiest neighbors, Afghanistan and Kyrgyzstan, are improving. While the Taliban has yet to be recognized as the legitimate Afghan government by Dushanbe, both sides agreed to strengthen economic ties during the first visit to Tajikistan by a delegation from the radical Islamist movement in March this year. Meanwhile, the Tajik government has pledged to resolve the border dispute with Kyrgyzstan—an issue that has led to several armed clashes in the last three years—by spring 2024. Rahmon is clearly trying to hand over a stable country to his son.

The situation at home, however, is more complicated. There is also considerable opposition to Rustam’s candidacy among the regional elites, who have long supported Rahmon in exchange for access to state resources, and are now seeing many of the most lucrative cash flows appropriated by the presidential family. A transition of power could be an opportune moment to express their displeasure.

Events in Gorno-Badakhshan in spring 2022 were a stark warning of the dangers of that displeasure. After the civil war that ravaged the country in the early 1990s, many of its field commanders settled in the region. Over time, they became informal leaders of the local communities, helping to solve problems that the central government was ignoring, sometimes strong-arming local officials into making the required decision. Rahmon ordered several security operations to rid Gorno-Badakhshan of this dual power system, only for it to reemerge further down the line.

Last spring, protests erupted there after a local man was killed by law enforcement officers. The unrest lasted for several months until Rahmon crushed it by force. Many of the activists were killed or imprisoned, while others fled the country, and the region was brought back under Dushanbe’s control. But the anger simmering in the region could boil over again at the first sign of conflict.

For now, the other regions remain loyal to the regime, but that could change after the power transition if the local elites feel they are not getting sufficient state resources.

By directing all the streams of income and control of the country to his own relatives, Rahmon has painted himself into a corner. Infighting over the succession and growing frustration in the regions could shatter the stability that the president has been building for so many years. Power transitions rarely go to plan in Central Asia, and Tajikistan may be no exception.

Source

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When Ranil Wickremesinghe took over as Sri Lanka’s president in July after a popular uprising ousted his predecessor, the South Asian island nation was engulfed in its worst economic meltdown in 75 years.

Since then, President Wickremesinghe has managed to a keep a lid on mass protests, improve supplies of essentials and on Monday, secured a nearly $3 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that opens the door to restructuring about $58 billion of debt and receive funding from other lenders.

On March 20, the IMF approved a $3 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) to support Sri Lanka amid its economic crisis. The approval is expected to pave the way for other financial institutions to extend support to the bankrupt South Asian country.

He has done that despite a deeply unpopular government, his own party commanding just one seat in the 225-member parliament and having to rely for support on the party of the man he replaced.

Hours-long power cuts and queues for fuel that led to the downfall of former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa are gone, thanks partly to a fuel rationing system. Tourists are returning, remittances are recovering and foreign exchange reserves are rising, though the economy is still contracting. But due largely to significant hikes in income taxes and power tariffs that were needed to get the IMF on board, the government of the 73-year-old is no favourite of the people. According to a “Mood of the Nation” poll run in February by private think-tank Verité Research, the government’s approval rating was 10%, the same as in October but higher than an all-time low of 3% in June, when Rajapaksa was in power. Only 4% were satisfied with the way things were going in Sri Lanka, down from 7% in October but higher than 2% in June.

There are no known approval ratings for Wickremesinghe as president. “He’s ready to face the people’s anger in the short term, to ensure long-term stability and growth in the country,” said Dinouk Colombage, Wickremesinghe’s director of international affairs. “Even though the president only has one seat in parliament, him carrying forward his agenda, bringing forth the reforms, once the results start showing, I think the people will come out in open support of him.”

Born into a prominent family of politicians and business-people with large interests in the media, the lawyer and six-time prime minister has little support beyond wealthy urban voters. His ability to make policy depends to a great extent on the support of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna party, largely controlled by the Rajapaksa family.

For now, Wickremesinghe is enjoying that support, and he said on Sunday that his country was on the right track There’s fuel now, there’s electricity, there’s fertiliser and by April, there will be enough rice and other foodstuff,” he said at an event in Colombo. “We will no longer be declared a bankrupt nation, but a nation that can restructure its debts.”

The bailout is expected to catalyse additional external support, with funding expected from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank to the tune of $3.75 billion, the IMF said in a statement.

In recent months, Wickremesinghe successfully negotiated economic support from top lenders China, India and Japan, culminating in the IMF bailout. He flew to Japan in October to apologise for the cancellation of Japanese-funded projects under Rajapaksa, which convinced Tokyo to back Sri Lanka’s request for the IMF bailout.

The Paris Club of creditors, which includes Japan, earlier this year gave financing assurances to support the IMF deal. A Japan-funded $1.8 billion light-railway project, which was suspended in 2019, is among infrastructure projects that Sri Lanka is now trying to restart.

But Sri Lanka still needs to renegotiate its debt, a potentially drawn-out process where Wickremesinghe, who is also the finance minister, will have to deal with demands from China, India and other creditors. He still has to turn around the economy, which shrank 7.8% in 2022 and is expected to contract by 3% this year.

Implementing further reforms under the IMF programme, reducing record-high interest rates and controlling inflation will also continue to pose challenges for Wickremesinghe, who has faced trade union strikes after the tax and power hikes.

Critics say Wickremesinghe’s economy-first approach ignores political and systemic reforms – like stronger anti-corruption measures and more transparency in government decision-making – as demanded by mass protesters who banded together as the “Aragalaya” movement last year.

“One year on, there is no real structural change in governance or system change,” said Bhavani Fonseka, senior researcher at Colombo-based Centre for Policy Alternatives. “The president does take this line that his priority is addressing the economy over everything else, but you can’t have that silo-ed approach and think people are going to be okay with it.”

A crisis-weary public may still have to absorb years of continuing hardship as Sri Lanka tries to fix its economy during the four-year IMF programme, warned Jayadeva Uyangoda, a senior political analyst. “Wickremesinghe has managed to neutralise the Aragalaya and that was a major success, but the economic and social crisis goes on,” he said.

“Economic stability will take at least another couple of years.”

Source : Reuters

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More than one million Azerbaijanis live outside the country, many of them working and providing financial support to their families in Azerbaijan by sending remittances from abroad. This represents an important source of income for households, particularly in rural areas. Remittances significantly contribute to the socioeconomic growth of the country.

According to the data from the Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan, in 2022, the amount of official remittance inflows was three times as much as in 2021 (3.6 billion USD compared to 1.2 billion USD).

IOM, in coordination with the State Migration Service of the Republic of Azerbaijan, implements a project to enhance the socioeconomic benefits of remittances in the country. The initiatives funded by the IOM Development Fund (IDF) aims to contribute to greater financial inclusion and use of digital financial services among Azerbaijani migrants and remittance recipients, located both in Azerbaijan and abroad.

An action plan for improving the legal and regulatory framework is being drafted and training programs on financial inclusion for migrants will be prepared within Central Bank’s financial literacy activities.

During the seventh International Banking Forum, organized by the Azerbaijan Banks Association and Central Bank of Azerbaijan, IOM ran a panel on remittances and the financial Inclusion of migrants. It aimed to highlight the socio-economic benefits of remittances, the importance of migrants’ economic contributions to their families back home, and to explore ways to maximize these benefits jointly with the private sector.

At the panel, moderated by Mr. Hurshid Rustamov, economist of the UN Resident Coordinator’s Office in Azerbaijan, it was noted that the importance of migrants’ economic contributions to their families back home is now more important than ever, especially for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

Ms. Maria Bassermann, project officer at the IOM Regional Office in Vienna, noted that the total amount of remittances received in South-Eastern, Eastern Europe and Central Asia region last year was USD 72 billion, on average 11 per cent of national GDP.

In low- and middle-income countries, remittances and migrants’ savings exceed overseas development assistance (ODA) to these countries 5 times. Furthermore, Ms. Bassermann stated that “to increase the positive impact of remittances for development, a focus needs to be put on improving migrant decision-making in sending remittances, reducing costs of sending remittances, enhancing financial Inclusion of migrants and remittance recipients.”

Mr. Elvin Afandi, Head of Corporate Strategy & Research of the Islamic Corporation for the Development of the Private Sector, highlighted contribution of digitalization of remittances to enhancing financial inclusion of migrants and their families. Mr. Matthieu de Heering, Head of Russia, Central Asia and Caucasus at the SWIFT, presented regional perspective on cross-border low-value payments.

A recording of the IOM-organized panel discussion can be fouind at IOM organized panel discussion at the 7th International Banking Forum held in Baku – YouTube

Source: Rovienna

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ASTANA — Designating Astana as the financial center of the Turkic world will enhance the city’s standing as a vital economic and financial hub in the region, providing a platform to highlight the country’s immense potential and attractive investment opportunities, commented the Astana International Financial Centre press service on Nov. 9, following the announcement made by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev during the 10th-anniversary Organization of Turkic States (OTS) Summit last week. 

Elaborating on Kazakhstan’s chairmanship in the OTS, Tokayev urged expansion of interregional trade and investment in the economy. 

“The Turkic Investment Fund has a unique role in this endeavor. To improve economic relations, it is necessary to establish a market for “green” finance.” he noted and thanked the participants for supporting the initiative of assigning the city of Astana the status of a financial center of the Turkic world. 

The decision to assign this status to Astana was made following the provision on granting certain statuses to cities of the Turkic world, approved during the Istanbul Summit in 2021. The document established the criteria for assigning the appropriate status to cities in the participating countries of the OTS. In particular, the candidate city must be a political, commercial, scientific, and cultural center of the Turkic world and play a vital role in Turkic civilization blossoming throughout history.

Astana is located next to the medieval settlement of Bozok, which served as a center of trade and crafts from the 8th to the 16th centuries and a point along the route of the Great Silk Road.

The Belt and Road initiative, which focuses on developing infrastructure and financing international transport corridors, was also announced for the first time in Astana. Infrastructure projects of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, including Caspian Integrated Maritime Solutions and KPMC

(a joint venture between PSA International Pte Ltd, a port operator and supply chain company with flagship operations in Singapore and Antwerp, and Kazakhstan Railways), are based in the AIFC.

The AIFC Green Finance Centre (GFC) operates as the regional office for the Green Investment Principles within the Belt and Road Initiative. Proactively championing sustainable finance in the region, the GFC has played a pivotal role in facilitating the issuance of green and social bonds in Kyrgyz Republic.

Astana has solidified its standing as a premier financial center in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, a recognition echoed by its placement in the Global Financial Centres Index. Functioning as a financial hub, the AIFC plays a crucial role in attracting investors and supporting businesses, providing an environment conducive to company growth not only in Central Asia but also beyond. 

Additionally, the Astana Financial Services Authority has forged agreements and memorandums with financial regulators from the OTS member countries, including Türkiye and the Kyrgyz Republic. These agreements facilitate information exchange and the supervision and regulation of activities conducted by these organizations.

The AIFC, operating as an independent jurisdiction, boasts a favorable legal and regulatory environment along with a developed infrastructure for commencing and conducting business. This makes it an attractive destination for investments, job creation, and the overall economic development of Kazakhstan.

Source: Astana Times

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On September 9, 2023, during the G20 meeting in New Delhi, the governments of seven countries and the European Union signed a memorandum of understanding to create an India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor. Only three of the countries (India, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates or the UAE) would be directly part of this corridor, which was to begin in India, go through the Gulf, and terminate in Greece. The European countries (France, Germany, and Italy) as well as the European Union joined this endeavor because they expected the IMEC to be a trade route for their goods to go to India and for them to access Indian goods at, what they hoped would be, a reduced cost.

The United States, which was one of the initiators of the IMEC, pushed it as a means to both isolate China and Iran as well as to hasten the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. It seemed like a perfect instrument for Washington: sequester China and Iran, bring Israel and Saudi Arabia together, and deepen ties with India that seemed to have been weakened by India’s reluctance to join the United States in its policy regarding Russia.

Israel’s war on the Palestinians in Gaza has changed the entire equation and stalled the IMEC. It is now inconceivable for Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to enter such a project with the Israelis. Public opinion in the Arab world is red-hot, with inflamed anger at the indiscriminate bombardment by Israel and the catastrophic loss of civilian life. Regional countries with close relations with Israel—such as Jordan and Turkey—have had to harden their rhetoric against Israel. In the short term, at least, it is impossible to imagine the implementation of the IMEC.

Pivot to Asia

Two years before China inaugurated its “One Belt, One Road” or Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the United States had already planned a private-sector-funded trade route to link India to Europe and to tighten the links between Washington and New Delhi. In 2011, then U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton gave a speech in Chennai, India, where she spoke of the creation of a New Silk Road that would run from India through Pakistan and into Central Asia. This new “international web and network of economic and transit connections” would be an instrument for the United States to create a new intergovernmental forum and a “free trade zone” in which the United States would be a member (in much the same way as the United States is part of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation or APEC).

The New Silk Road was part of a wider “pivot to Asia,” as U.S. President Barack Obama put it. This “pivot” was designed to check the rise of China and to prevent its influence in Asia. Clinton’s articlein Foreign Policy (“America’s Pacific Century,” October 11, 2011) suggested that this New Silk Road was not antagonistic to China. However, this rhetoric of the “pivot” came alongside the U.S. military’s new AirSea Battle concept that was designed around direct conflict between the United States and China (the concept built on a 1999 Pentagon study called “Asia 2025” which noted that “the threats are in Asia”).

Two years later, the Chinese government said that it would build a massive infrastructure and trade project called “One Belt, One Road,” which would later be called the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Over the next ten years, from 2013 to 2023, the BRI investments totaled $1.04 trillion spread out over 148 countries (three-quarters of the countries in the world). In this short period, the BRI project has made a considerable mark on the world, particularly on the poorer nations of Africa, Asia, and Latin America, where the BRI has made investments to build infrastructure and industry.

Chastened by the growth of the BRI, the United States attempted to block it through various instruments: the América Crece for Latin America and the Millennium Challenge Corporation for South Asia. The weakness in these attempts was that both relied upon funding from an unenthusiastic private sector.

Complications of the IMEC

Even before the Israeli bombardment of Gaza, IMEC faced several serious challenges.

First, the attempt to isolate China appeared illusory, given that the main Greek port in the corridor—at Piraeus—is managed by the China Ocean Shipping Corporation, and that the Dubai Ports have considerable investment from China’s Ningbo-Zhoushan port and the Zhejiang Seaport. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are now members of the BRICS+, and both countries are participants in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

Second, the entire IMEC process is reliant upon private-sector funding. The Adani Group—which has close ties to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and has come under the spotlight for fraudulent practices—already owns the Mundra port (Gujarat, India) and the Haifa port (Israel), and seeks to take a share in the port at Piraeus. In other words, the IMEC corridor is providing geopolitical cover for Adani’s investments from Greece to Gujarat.

Third, the sea lane between Haifa and Piraeus would go through waters contested between Turkey and Greece. This “Aegean Dispute” has provoked the Turkish government to threaten war if Greece goes through with its designs.

Fourth, the entire project relied upon the “normalization” between Saudi Arabia and Israel, an extension of the Abraham Accords that drew Bahrain, Morocco, and the United Arab Emirates to recognize Israel in August 2020. In July 2022, India, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States formed the I2U2 Group, with the intention, among other things, to “modernize infrastructure” and to “advance low-carbon development pathways” through “private enterprise partnerships.” This was the precursor of IMEC. Neither “normalization” with Saudi Arabia nor advancement of the I2U2 process between the UAE and Israel seem possible in this climate. Israel’s bombardment of the Palestinians in Gaza has frozen this process.

Previous Indian trade route projects, such as the International North-South Trade Corridor (with India, Iran, and Russia) and the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor (led by India and Japan), have not gone from paper to port for a host of reasons. These, at least, had the merit of being viable. IMEC will suffer the same fate as these corridors, to some extent due to Israel’s bombing of Gaza but also due to Washington’s fantasy that it can “defeat” China in an economic war.

Source:Counter Punch

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Supreme Commander-in-Chief Kassym-Jomart Tokayev addressed the military personnel. The head of state highly appreciated the level of preparedness of the units involved. The President noted the importance of conducting such military exercises in a difficult geopolitical situation.

“Today, large-scale changes are taking place in the global defense system. Modern methods and techniques of warfare, especially hybrid types of warfare, are becoming increasingly widespread. Attacks can be not only military, but also informational, psychological, political, economic and other in nature. Therefore, the Armed Forces the forces of Kazakhstan must be ready for any challenges. This is the main requirement for a modern professional army. We have only one Motherland – Kazakhstan! Ensuring the security and protection of our country, land and citizens is our common sacred duty,” said Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.

According to the Head of State, our army must be highly professional, mobile and ready to carry out the most complex combat missions.

“To do this, it is fundamentally important to equip it with high-tech weapons and high-quality military equipment, to fully provide it with ammunition. In my recent Address, I set a priority task: to create a production cycle with a high degree of localization. Armored vehicles, unmanned aerial vehicles, modern small arms – we are all that “We can and must produce them here, in our country. In general, the defense-industrial complex must provide a reliable foundation for the combat effectiveness of our army,” the President emphasized.

As Kassym-Jomart Tokayev noted, the main factors in the effectiveness of the Armed Forces are combat training and the morale of officers and personnel

“Increased demands are placed on the training of troops and the professionalism of commanders. Therefore, in the conditions of modern combat, units should be ready to act autonomously, in isolation from the main forces. Commanders and superiors must be decisive, show reasonable initiative, creatively approach the solution of assigned tasks, embody a model of courage, perseverance and loyalty to the oath, to be an impeccable example to follow. The strength of the army is in discipline! And here the role of commanders is paramount. It is necessary to maintain a high level of training, coherence and strict order in the Armed Forces. Each soldier must perfectly master the weapons entrusted to him and equipment, skillfully use them in battle, show determination, courage and bravery,” the President concluded.

During the military exercises “Batyl Toytarys-2023”, the readiness of state and military authorities to carry out a defensive operation was tested. The decisions taken at headquarters at all levels were implemented by the troops in full.

8 thousand military personnel and 600 units of weapons and military equipment were involved in the exercises.

Source: Islamabad Post

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The United States may soon impose secondary sanctions on Kyrgyzstan for helping Russia procure sensitive technologies for its war effort in Ukraine, The Washington Post reported Wednesday, citing two anonymous U.S. officials familiar with the matter.

The small Central Asian republic saw a “striking” expansion of import-export companies profiting from sales of Chinese and European drones, aircraft parts and bomb circuits to Russia in recent months, said a senior official with detailed knowledge about the transactions.

The Biden administration could impose new economic measures to pressure Kyrgyzstan to halt the sanctions-busting trade of banned goods with Russia as early as this week, according to the WP.

The decision was reportedly reached after “months of fruitless visits” by U.S. and European diplomats to the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek.

Previous U.S. measures included blacklisting Kyrgyzstan-based companies accused of sanctions evasion.

A 250% surge in exports to Russia in 2022 — with items like rifle scopes not previously known as a bilateral trade item — reflects the scale of the Kyrgyz “shadow bazaar,” WP wrote. 

Most of the Russian recipient companies of Kyrgyz-supplied goods also supply Russia’s defense industry, the unnamed U.S. official said.

They alleged that Russia’s intelligence services are involved alongside war profiteers in closely coordinating the Kyrgyz companies’ procurement of sensitive electronics and exports to Russia.

The Kyrgyz Embassy in Washington acknowledged previous reports of sanctions violations but maintained Bishkek’s commitment to adhering to international regulations and cracking down on contraband and other illicit trade.

“Kyrgyzstan and Russia are members of the [Moscow-led] Eurasian Economic Union and, in general, Russia is one of our main trading partners,” it said. “More than a million of our citizens work in Russia.”

Total exports to Russia from Moscow’s regional allies Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan rose by almost 50% to $15 billion last year, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of UN trade data. 

The same countries nearly doubled their imports of U.S. and EU goods from $14.6 billion in 2021 to $24.3 billion last year, WSJ said in May.

“Kyrgyzstan, while small relative to other countries, is a clear example of every factor at play at once to create an unacceptably [sanctions] evasion-friendly environment,” WP quoted one of the U.S. officials as saying.

Source: The Moscow Times

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AKIPRESS.COM – London hosted a roundtable discussion on new economic opportunities in cooperation between the UK and Uzbekistan, which was attended by more than 60 representatives of parliamentary, government, and business circles, UzA reported.

The event was organized by the Embassy of Uzbekistan and the Institute of Directors (IoD), which unites more than 25,000 British companies and entrepreneurs in various sectors of the economy.

The diplomatic mission organized a presentation about Uzbekistan with a focus on the process of economic liberalization of the country and favorable opportunities for trade, economic and investment cooperation, including the expansion of exports of Uzbek products to the British market.

The interest of the British side in building up cooperation with Uzbekistan in various sectors of the economy was expressed.

The possibility of enhancing mutual trade was noted, taking into account the inclusion of Uzbekistan in the list of beneficiary countries of the DCTS Trade Scheme for Developing Countries, due to which Uzbekistan can export goods to the UK market at a zero or low rate of import duty.

Source: Akipress

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