It was bitter cold, but I don’t remember freezing or being cold. Hemingway wrote that the air was so cold when you took a breath it was like drinking water. We travelled by train, then we walked through the cold streets, no bus was running, we had to hustle to catch the last ride up the mountain, then it was up to the mountain, bundled up in two thick woolen blankets with the snow showering us. It was warm looking out of the peep hole I created, flying up the mountains sitting on the last ride of the day.

The guys on the ski lift slowed so on the embarking I could jump on. In those days it was all open seated, no warm and heated cabin. Naturelle was the norm.

Then we skied down to the lake, my dad with the heavy load with a pipe his brother machine welded in the city shop strapped in his backpack. He always carried the loads since he was as strong as an ox, my cousin and me. The winter nights were here, the landscape was just as fresh as a picture book, and the valley was covered in silver sparkling light greyish. Stars were bright covering the landscape from one end to the other. The evergreen trees were covered with fresh snow which the mountain shed plenty. Not a sound could be heard.

On the way the valley had a few houses before we descended into our world, with shimmering lights coming from the houses. Thick white smoke rose from the chimney poking through the snow. But no one could be seen. The only sounds were made by us making it through the snow pressing a track in the fresh snow.

Breathing the cold air my nostrils froze up. It did not bother me because otherwise I was happy as a camper. Thirty minutes passed by, before we entered the warmth of our destination, the Hütte, so I knew what was before me.

Spread out in the valley was the frozen lake, and a few huts that were not occupied by anyone. We were the first ones to occupy a house. The rest of the huts stood empty and cold. There was the forest “hunter” on the left who went in the valley below during the winter months, close to the house mountain in the back. Two more huts were between the state forester and us.

On the slope up on the right was another hunting lodge, and although never in my life I have seen a living soul in this hideout overlooking the salt path, the lake and the gaggle of huts.

Halfway was one hut, by now usually completely snowed under only to make a ramp, invisible to the untrained eye. The valley ran up against a wall of granite, hard cold stone, snow and wind. I paused, and I could hear the roaring of the winds against the high walls of snow and ice. Clear, ice-cold nights, stars blazing from the sky and silence. Pure silence.

Skiing into the valley we disturbed the peace. Hollering and yelling as we went down the steep alley, not seeing if anyone was before us. But my dad was easy to recognize. He had a freaking pipe sticking out of his backpack. As we were slaloming down the narrow gully, the “star gully”, named after some unlucky bloke, a bone shattering yell.

A fading shouted obscenity followed by a thump and…. silence. Rushing to the aid the poor soul, my mind racing, a picture of despair presented itself with the head buried in the snow, the gravity of the backpack did what Newton has predicted, and the pipe pointed in the sky like a mortar ready to launch.

Examining the scene, combing the parts thrown around the snow, gloves, thrown about by said angry human, sticks, a pair of skis, unbroken, human, no harm done, stove pipe, not bent, father angry, swearing like a sailor on shore leave, my indignation was laughter. Star gully had found a new victim.

The revenge of the snow under roof. My dad managed to ski jump the only roof in the entire gully, launching off the roof like a rocket. Laughter, a good tale was in the making. Getting tucked in the house, I spent some time outside, smiling to myself about what we just survived. Wondering about the thousand of stars that overlooked our little merry band.

Standing in the cold night, glittering and watching in amazement the star-studded sky, my father popped his head around asking “You wanna come inside?”

“In a minute”, I said turning my attention to the sky. He smiled, in a way only old guys can do, “It is Christmas”, he said with a smile.

My father has sadly passed away. He is gravely missed; he was a man of few words and a great member of the community. A dry wit, grumpy, stubborn, but loved his grandkids.

It’s Christmas, so he said. And it was.

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In October 2024, China’s first comprehensive regulation to tighten state control over the critical sector of rare earth resources took effect. Coming amid the global transition towards clean energy, the regulation demonstrates China’s increased leverage of its rare earth monopoly to outpace its geopolitical rivals like the United States, which remains far behind China in this sector. Intensified competition for rare earth elements risks overshadowing collaborative efforts to develop clean technology.

Mountain Pass, owned by MP Materials, is the only large-scale rare earth mining and processing facility in North America. Image from Wikimedia Commons.

In the race to develop clean technology, major polluting countries like the United States and China compete to lead in producing renewable energy products, striving to achieve environmental goals while enhancing national competitiveness. Rare earth elements (REE) — a group of 17 soft, heavy chemical elements — are major components for clean technologies like wind turbines, electric vehicles, and solar panels. The International Energy Agency projects that demand for REE could rise to 3–7 times current levels by 2040. Consequently, Western powers, such as the United States and the European Union, are under increasing pressure to secure essential REE for clean technologies needed to transition to a low-carbon economy. However, limited access to REE could hinder their ability to meet these goals.

China’s Monopoly in the Rare Earth Sector

Despite US dominance in rare earth mining from the 1960s to 1980s, environmental movements and regulatory pressures eventually led companies to relocate to China or close the US mines. Subsequently, China’s low costs, fuelled by state subsidies and lax environmental standards, allowed it to surpass the United States in the rare earth industry. Currently, China dominates the rare earth supply chain, controlling approximately 60 per cent of global mining operations, over 85 per cent of processing capacity, and more than 90 percent of permanent magnet production.

Trade frictions between China and the United States, the world’s two largest greenhouse gas emitters, are particularly hindering progress in the clean energy transition. In September 2024, the United States raised tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles to 100 per cent and significantly increased tariffs on other Chinese green technologies, including solar products. However, heavy reliance on China for the rare earths needed for the United States to independently produce these technologies has raised concerns that this dependency could become a significant vulnerability in the escalating tech war.

Global reserves of rare earths outside China include 19 per cent in Vietnam, 18 per cent in Brazil, 6 per cent in India, and 4 per cent in Australia. However, while alternative sources exist among these countries that the United States or its allies are friendly with, scaling up production to meet increasing demand remains a substantial challenge. For instance, China’s exceptional processing capacity of 220,000 tonnes per year — five times the combined capacity of the rest of the world — would take other countries years to match.

China’s Leverage of Rare Earth Elements

China is increasingly weaponising its dominance in REE to impose costs on its rivals in trade disputes. The resulting market dynamics are seen as producing externalities that adversely affect foreign clean technology businesses dependent on Chinese rare earth exports, potentially slowing the transition to renewable energy.

In October 2024, China’s first comprehensive regulation on rare earth resources took effect. As illegal mining and smelting have persisted in the country, the regulations introduce stringent rules governing the mining, refining and separation, metal smelting, integrated utilisation, product distribution, import and export of rare earths. Companies violating the regulations may face fines of 5–10 times their illegal gains. Consequently, rare earth supplies are expected to tighten, and prices of REE are expected to increase.

The regulation is seen as a move that could undermine the competitiveness of foreign clean technology products reliant on China-supplied rare earths as business would pass these higher costs on to their customers. Ultimately, the adoption of clean technologies like wind turbines and electric vehicles in countries like the United States could be slowed.

Earlier, in June 2024, Beijing declared rare earth resources to be state-owned and placed the industry under government oversight, ensuring product traceability. While framed as securing national and industrial interests, the move is widely seen as ensuring leverage in the ongoing trade dispute between the United States and China.

The new regulation extends China’s previous leverage over its control of the entire rare earth supply chain. In December 2023, China banned the export of technology for manufacturing rare earth magnets, which are essential components in many clean energy technologies, such as wind turbines. Additionally, in January 2022, Beijing banned foreign direct investment in rare earth mining projects. The ban was described as having “injected even more urgency” into Western efforts to diversify their mineral supply chains away from China.

Furthermore, the Chinese government is reportedly planning to offer direct grants and low-interest loans to its rare earth industry. Such a move would lower operating costs and allow Chinese companies to thrive in market conditions that are challenging to others, thereby dominating global processing capacity.

Obstacles to US Efforts to Reduce Dependence on China

China’s geopolitical rivals view Beijing’s rare earth monopoly as “a risk to national security” because of their strong dependence on Chinese exports.

As a challenger of China in the competition for developing clean technology, the United States is actively investing in various stages within the REE supply chain to reduce its reliance on China. Through its Manufacturing Capability Expansion and Investment Program, the US Defense Department (DOD) has launched a five-year strategy to establish a full domestic rare earth supply chain, covering sourcing, separation, processing, metallisation, alloying and magnet manufacturing. Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths, the only commercial-scale source of separated rare earths outside of China, received over US$258 million from the DOD to establish a production facility in Texas. Additionally, the DOD awarded US$45 million to MP Materials, which claims to be the “only scaled producer of rare earth materials in the Western Hemisphere”, to enhance domestic light and heavy rare earth processing capacity.

However, such efforts would not result in immediate challenges to China. The United States still lacks a complete domestic value chain from mining to magnet production. One of the primary reasons is that mining projects in the United States often have long lead times, with records indicating it takes around 16 years to complete permits and construction for production to begin.

The United States has also launched the Minerals Security Partnership (MSP) with key countries like Australia, which ranks just behind China in “exploration investment, reserves, and capital expenditure”; India, known for its manufacturing capabilities; and Japan, which plays a major role in financing. This partnership aims to address supply chain vulnerabilities in essential minerals like REE.

Nevertheless, as of 2024, MSP has seen minimal investment and lacks technological expertise, raising doubts about the partnership’s capacity to be a feasible alternative to China. Additionally, environmental concerns could be a significant hurdle to developing the partner countries’ rare earth mining or production capability. Each ton of rare earth produced generates 13 kilograms of dust, 9,600–12,000 cubic metres of waste gas, 75 cubic metres of wastewater, and one ton of radioactive residue, all of which have harmful health effects. Notably, Mountain Pass, the only large-scale rare earth mine and separation facility in North America, closed in 2002 after a toxic waste spill and remained shut for years. US mining companies are also struggling to recruit skilled workers, slowing down the US ambition to boost its domestic production capability.

Conclusion

Geopolitical tensions over resources and technology are hampering the clean energy transition. Energy transition is not intended to be a zero-sum game as all can benefit from clean energy products in a free trade situation, and therefore from reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions. However, growing supply chain fragmentation increasingly sees major economies prioritising supply security through the lens of national self-interest. Additionally, the intensified drive for rare earth extraction could further environmental degradation, thereby undermining global efforts to achieve net-zero carbon emissions.

Although it is unlikely that other countries will surpass China in rare earth production in the foreseeable future, a promising pathway to create a less polarised geopolitical landscape around REE and to reduce pollution is emerging in the form of recycling this resource from obsolete equipment.

From an economic perspective, recycling processes can be implemented more rapidly than the development of new mines, which typically requires decades for them to become commercially viable. From an environmentally friendly perspective, recycling reduces the need for new rare earth mining, thereby decreasing both the environmental and energy footprints associated with extraction and processing.

China’s strategy of leveraging its rare earth monopoly is highly effective in the short term but it may not retain the same level of influence over the long term. By 2050, reuse and recycling strategies could meet 30–40 per cent of rare earth mineral demand in the United States, China, and Europe. Although Beijing is likely to maintain its monopoly in the rare earth supply chain, increased circularity could gradually reduce other countries’ dependence on China, ultimately diminishing its geopolitical leverage over this critical resource.

Hu Xinyue is a Senior Analyst in the China Programme at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS), S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS).

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Many have taken out loans with floating rates, which creates a risk of widespread bankruptcies.

Marina Malakhatko, a senior director at the consulting firm CORE.XP, told the Russian media outlet Kommersant that at least 200 shopping malls will be at risk of bankruptcy in 2025. She said some owners are already looking to sell their assets.

Debt servicing has become even tougher after Russia‘s Central Bank was forced to hike interest rates to 21 percent – the highest level in over 20 years.

The Union of Shopping Centres (STTs) estimates that half of the country’s shopping centres are facing high debt burdens.

Many have taken out loans with floating rates, which creates a risk of widespread bankruptcies.

Marina Malakhatko, a senior director at the consulting firm CORE.XP, told the Russian media outlet Kommersant that at least 200 shopping malls will be at risk of bankruptcy in 2025. She said some owners are already looking to sell their assets.

Debt servicing has become even tougher after Russia‘s Central Bank was forced to hike interest rates to 21 percent – the highest level in over 20 years.

Russians have also faced tax increases, as the Kremlin seeks to raise more money to fund its war in Ukraine.

Government spending on national defence is expected to rise to $120 billion (£93bn this year from $75 billion (£58bn) in 2023.

In the summer Putin signed off on a package of tax rises worth almost $30 billion (£23bn), tapping workers and companies to raise more funds for his Ukraine offensive.

Source

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The first use of drone-based lidar in Central Asia has enabled archaeologists to uncover details of two newly discovered medieval trade cities high in the mountains of Uzbekistan.

The team used this cutting-edge technology to map the archaeological scale and layout of the cities, which are among the largest ever documented in the mountainous parts of the Silk Road, a broad network of ancient trade routes that connected Europe and Eastern Asia.

The research, led by Michael Frachetti, professor of archaeology in Arts & Sciences at Washington University in St. Louis, and Farhod Maksudov, director of the National Center of Archaeology in Uzbekistan, was recently published in Nature.

High-Resolution Insights into Ancient Urbanism

The drone-lidar scans provided remarkably detailed views of the plazas, fortifications, roads, and habitations that shaped the lives and economies of highland communities, traders, and travelers from the sixth through 11th centuries in Central Asia. The two cities are located in rugged terrain 2,000 to 2,200 meters above sea level (roughly comparable to Machu Picchu in Peru), making them unusual examples of thriving mountain urbanism.

Unveiling the Complexities of Mountain Urbanism

The smaller city, today called Tashbulak, covered about 12 hectares, while the larger city of Tugunbulak reached 120 hectares, “making it one of the largest regional cities of its time,” Frachetti said.

“These would have been important urban hubs in central Asia, especially as you moved out of lowland oases and into more challenging high-altitude settings,” he said. “While typically seen as barriers to Silk Road trade and movement, the mountains actually were host to major centers for interaction. Animals, ores, and other precious resources likely drove their prosperity.”

“This site had an elaborate urban structure with specific material culture that greatly varied from the lowland sedentary culture,” Maksudov said. “It’s clear that the people inhabiting Tugunbulak for more than a thousand years ago were nomadic pastoralists who maintained their own distinct, independent culture and political economy.”

Technological Advancements in Archaeological Exploration

Lidar technology is commonly used to map archaeological landscapes blocked by dense vegetation, but it has additional value where vegetation is sparse, such as the mountains of Uzbekistan. “Drone operation is strictly regulated in Uzbekistan, so this discovery is also thanks to the political support and permissions we received through local partners and government,” Frachetti said.

The centimeter-level scans allowed for advanced computer analysis of the ancient archaeological surfaces, providing an unprecedented view of the cities’ architecture and organization. “These are some of the highest-resolution lidar images of archeological sites ever published,” Frachetti said. “They were made possible, in part, because of the unique erosion dynamics in this mountain setting.”

A Blend of Modern Tech and Ancient Discovery

Frachetti, Maksudov, and their team first discovered the highland cities using predictive computer models and old-fashioned foot surveys between 2011 and 2015, tracing presumed routes of the Silk Road in southeastern Uzbekistan. The project took years to materialize. The extra time ultimately proved to be a blessing, allowing the researchers to make the most of the latest advances in drone-based lidar. “The final high-res maps were a composite of more than 17 drone flights over three weeks,” Frachetti said. “It would have taken us a decade to map such large sites manually.”

Frachetti and graduate students in his Spatial Analysis, Interpretation, and Exploration (SAIE) Lab compiled the drone-lidar data into 3D models, which were passed to Tao Ju, a professor of computer science and engineering, and Xiaoyi Liu, an undergraduate student, both at the McKelvey School of Engineering at WashU. Ju and Liu applied computational algorithms to analyze the archaeological surfaces and auto-trace millions of lines to predict likely architectural alignments. The final step was to match the digital output with comparable architectural cases, revealing a huge ancient city otherwise invisible to the naked eye. “The project reflects a truly interdisciplinary effort,” Ju said. “The analysis techniques have potential applications in many domains that utilize lidar scans.”

Future Excavations and Implications

Both cities warrant much closer inspection, Frachetti said. Preliminary digging at one of the fortified structures at Tugunbulak suggests that the fortress — a building protected by three-meter-thick rammed earth walls — might have been a factory where local metalsmiths turned rich deposits of iron ore into steel. Such industry would have been a key feature of the city and its economy.

It’s already clear that Tashbulak and Tugunbulak weren’t just remote outposts or rest stops. “The Silk Road wasn’t just about the endpoints of China and the West,” Frachetti said. “Major political forces were at play in Central Asia. The complex heart of the network was also a driver of innovation.”

Frachetti hopes to use the same combination of on-the-ground detective work and drone-based lidar to get pictures of other high-altitude settlements along the Silk Road and beyond. “We could really change the map of urban development in medieval Asia,” he said.

Reference: “Large-scale medieval urbanism traced by UAV–lidar in highland Central Asia” by Michael D. Frachetti, Jack Berner, Xiaoyi Liu, Edward R. Henry, Farhod Maksudov and Tao Ju, 23 October 2024, Nature.
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-08086-5

The expedition was supported by the National Geographic Society.

Source

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Washington 6 Nov (50). Russian officials and proxy authorities in Russia-controlled areas of Ukraine are undertaking a monumental effort to “filter” the population as a means of suppressing Ukrainian resistance and enforcing loyalty among the remaining population.

The United States condemns Russia’s “filtration” operations, forced deportations, and disappearances in Russia-controlled areas of Ukraine in which Russia’s forces and proxies have interrogated, detained, and forcibly deported Ukrainian, according to a broad range of sources, between 900,000 and 1.6 million Ukrainian citizens, including thousands of children. 

Ukrainian citizens are being taken to filtration camps in a concerted effort to suppress their resistance. Many Ukrainian citizens are facing forced deportations, arbitrary detentions, and torture and other abuses.

While at filtration camps, Ukrainian citizens are often strip-searched for “nationalistic” tattoos, photographed, and have their fingerprints taken. Ukrainian citizens have had their passports confiscated and their cell phones searched, with Russia’s forces sometimes downloading their contact lists.

There is evidence that Russia’s forces have interrogated, detained, and forcibly deported to Russia an estimated hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian citizens, including unaccompanied children, from their homes, often sending them to remote regions in Russia.

The United States has information that officials from Russia’s Presidential Administration are overseeing and coordinating filtration operations. Russia is also using advanced technology to facilitate filtration processes, including for the purposes of collecting data on Ukrainian citizens undergoing filtration.

As part of this effort, the United States has information that over the course of July 2022, more than 1,800 children were reported to have been transferred from Russia-controlled areas of Ukraine to Russia.  Once in Russia, some reports indicate that children undergo psychological “rehabilitation” and are forced to complete unspecified educational projects.

Thousands of Ukrainian children were reported to have been transferred to Russia. Once in Russia, some reports indicate that Ukrainian children undergo what Russia refers to as psychological “rehabilitation” and are forced to complete unspecified educational projects. 

Some of these children have no identity documents or information on the location of their parents. As part of this forced deportation, plans are being developed to place orphaned Ukrainian children with foster families in Russia, in collaboration with other executive agencies in the Russian government.

Children have been evacuated from Mariupol to Russia-controlled areas of Ukraine, and then to Russia. Some children lack any identity documents or information on the location or whereabouts of their parents. 

To facilitate the forced deportation and resettlement of children, officials in Russia-controlled areas of Ukraine are developing administrative arrangements to place orphans with  families in Russia, in collaboration with Russian executive agencies.

Separately, as of July 2022, Russian officials reportedly forced prisoners in a Russia-held area of Ukraine to apply for Russian citizenship.  Prisoners who refused to apply were subjected to physical and psychological abuse.

The United States supports all international efforts to examine mounting evidence of atrocities and other abuses in Ukraine, including fact-finding missions conducted by the International Criminal Court, the United Nations, the Experts Missions established by invocation of the OSCE’s Moscow Mechanism, and other efforts. We also support a wide range of documentation initiatives that can support such investigations.

Source

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London 30 October (20).

In 2014, Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula. That same year, Russian special operation forces captured Donetsk and Luhansk, two of the main cities in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine and created puppet pro-Russian regimes there to further destabilize Ukraine.

Media, academic and general coverage of the War on the Doorsteps of Europe received shock, disbelief and a bizarre debate on the greatness of the Russian Federation. In particularly a German article received my attention which ought to be considered. The Russian Federation is morally bankrupt.

Regardless of the BRICS meetings and the self-flagellation of its political leadership and worlds hope to finally get even with the evil western powers Russia is not seven feet tall, leaps over tall building or other self-proclamation. The Russia that I know has broken lifts, streets with potholes, near third world poverty, alcoholism, brute violence and regardless how we view the Russian Federation a dictatorship.

That is the Russia that I know. In some verbal diarrhea a well written German author compares Russia with Prussia, recalls the history of Czar Kathrine, the vastness and wealth of the Russian Federation. In good old German traditions, he drives on the wealth of the Russian Federation. He speaks of roams of Gold, and Diamonds, and richness beyond anybody imaginations.

Let me educate the public on all these nonsensical narratives. Because they are false. Like the United States who beaten the English, Russia was bankrupt in the 1990s. The states broke away as fast as they could. They wanted nothing from the Russians. The Russian core, so often praised, was stuck in the mining towns of the Soviet Union with no jobs, and a few options available, drunkenness was rampant.

The Russian needed American, English, South African mining technology and engineers. The town was a secret city. Not on any one map. The local Gulag provided workers for a couple of dollars that without doubt went to the pocket of the local police. We had murderers, thieves and the rest of the outcasts of society. Russians laughed about the technology from the west because they could not imagine a bunch of cowboys as we were called, could make gold out of the dust which the Russians thrown away. But we did, and the money went to the private bank accounts of the regime in London. It’s an open secret but it is.

The Russian wealth the German author so euphorically quotes went to the coffers of the regime with accounts in the West. The average Russian saw zero of the wealth.

Fun fact. And since Catherine the Great, which was a German by her Pomeranian origins, Princess Sophie of Anhalt-Zerbst, came to power by overthrowing her husband, Peter III who was born in Kiel, Germany. The increasing demands of the state and of private landowners intensified the exploitation of serf labor which resulted in riots and uprisings. She had him overthrown and a legitimate successor murdered. So much for democracy in Russia.

In the German psyche the cleavages to compare Russia with Prussia is as far fetched as claiming the United States as part of England. The English lost, and like Russia it has little consequence for Russia today.

The fact that Russia was once a superpower has no bearing to the ambitions of today. The geographical relations with Moscow are for history books. And BRICS being a society of like-minded countries, we’ll see.

It is more like a military with competing interests. For example, the South China Sea is in the hinterlands of the Russian Federation and competing interests of China and Russia. Will Malaysia, now proud member of BRICS surrenders its claims since it joined BRICS?

Neither has the claims on the Ukraine. The Russian unison is rather a mysterious animal. The Russian Federation of today is as un-unified as ever can be. The German explanation of not having achieved the war strategy for NATO and the EU is so typically wrapped in some wishful make belief of CNN quick and dirty Gulf war victory. Germany must learn to defend itself and win wars. This is an uncomfortable truth. Defeat of Russia is the only option. Get on with it.

The debate about winning and forecasting wars has entered the academic debate. A Ukrainian academic completed a detailed analysis on the causes of the war and how it will end. Its noteworthy to read, even if you are German.

A substantial percentage of the local population of the Donbas region, predominantly Russian speaking Ukrainians and ethnic Russians, wanted to join Russia, as the government promised them higher pensions. The average monthly pension in Russia in 2013 was about $285 per month, while the average pension in Ukraine was $160.

The Russian government used its bluffing techniques to threaten the West with the use of a nuclear weapon. The West responded to Russian aggression by expressing their numerous concerns and introducing mild sanctions against Russia, Crimea, and occupied Donbas.

The continued influx of money from the West to Russia, approximately $1 billion per day for mostly gas and oil, encouraged the Russian government to start a full-scale war against Ukraine on 24 February 2022. This money flow has to change.

The goal was to occupy Ukraine, exterminate pockets of resistance, and add Ukraine to the Russian-led union like the USSR. The Russian army attacked Ukraine from the north, east, and south, and used the blitzkrieg method of a massive attack. The Russian government was counting on the fast collapse of the Ukrainian army and the rapid capture of the Ukrainian capital. This did not happen. 

Western military experts have grossly overestimated the quality of the Russian army. They predicted the collapse of Ukraine in seventy-two hours, repeating the Russian propaganda mantra that Kyiv will be taken in three days. The Western experts and leadership were wrong again, in part due to their limited understanding of the Ukrainian culture with deep-rooted military history, ingenuity, and passionate desire to end centuries-long Russian oppression and genocide of the Ukrainian people. The death of the experts. The Russian army is as broken as it was in 1991. Poor barracks, old kit, non-existing combat casualty treatment centers, abusive command, drunkenness, corruption and abuse.

This could be explained by the large number of ethnic Russians and saboteurs among the local governments of southern Ukraine. In contrast, predominantly Ukrainian speaking people of the Kherson region started mass protests within the first days of the Russian invasion. The map shows otherwise.

The Russian government is using its resources to soften, fracture, and destabilize Ukraine. The Russian army attacked Ukrainian energy infrastructure to cut off electricity, heat, and water, and increase the scale of the humanitarian disaster in Ukraine during the winter. The Russian ‘Blitz’ will come with long teeth. Killing kids, attacks against hospitals, and the elderly will not be forgotten. It hardened the Ukrainian resolve.

The Russian government is expecting that the Ukrainian people will not want to suffer any longer and will demand the Ukrainian government to enter peace negotiations. This is the same tactic with the same verbiage used by Nazi Germany in 1940, trying to force Great Britain to surrender.

Rapid defeat of the Russian forces could reduce the number of Ukrainian casualties, especially among the Ukrainian civilians, as well as the overall damage to the Ukrainian infrastructure and the total costs of the war to Ukraine and NATO partners. The decision makers in NATO and the EU need to recognize this. Experts err.

Ukraine wants to join NATO or another powerful military block, to make sure that in the future, Russia will be afraid to attack Ukraine again. This is the war for the survival of the Ukrainian people who remember the twentieth century as the century of the systematic Ukrainian genocide by Soviet Russia, including three famines and forced labor and death in the Russian concentration camps.

However, the West underestimated the ability of the Russian Federation to survive economic hardship. As of today, there are no significant instabilities in the Russian Federation. The Russian government was able to stabilize its internal processes. Most likely, the West is uncomfortable with the unknown outcomes of possible collapse of the Russian Federation.

Based on my observations, Ukrainian people desire the collapse of the Russian Federation as soon as possible. There is a reasonable and rather predictable time window for their collapse.

In a simplified war duration model, the time window for the war end can be estimated from the duration of the first successful for the adversary phase, that is, the time interval between the start of the war and the time when the adversary became exhausted.

The End of Russia (as we know it)

Regional separations and collapse of the Russian Federation should occur between 10 June 2024 and 4 February 2025. According to the model accounting for possible delays due to the weapon supplies, bad weather, peace talks, etc., the collapse of the Russian Federation will likely occur on or around 28 May 2026.

I believe that the collapse of the USSR in 1991 was incomplete, because it did not split its main member— the Russian Federation into several states. The same flat plate model with the same coefficients was used to estimate the earliest date for the collapse of the USSR.

Subsequent recovery peaks of different amplitude should occur every four to eight years.

One can reasonably expect that Russia’s recovery peaks should lead to new territorial expansion wars initiated by Russia every four to eight years. According to the simplified models with no damping (no delaying factors), the largest peaks for the Russian aggression should develop in December 2002, July 2013, and January 2021.

The flat plate model with moderate damping predicted the collapse of the USSR around 17 June 2001, and periodic attempts of the Moscow government to rebuild the USSR, with its peak efforts around July 2013, August 2025, and September 2043.

The plate model with relatively strong damping representing stronger effort of the West to stabilize the collapsing USSR, produced rather soft collapse of the USSR around 1 July 2007, with subsequent recovery and attempts to rebuild the USSR.

However, in the case of strong damping (meaning strong Western efforts to support the collapsing USSR), the USSR should experience a relatively soft collapse, after which Moscow would start its rather successful restoration of the Soviet Union.

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Moscow (11 September/ 33.33).

Russia waged a 2-year war of aggression against its neighbor, the Ukraine. Two years on, hundred thousand of deaths, families destroyed, Russia is no where near its 3-day goals of occupation. The Russian army slugs on, mile for mile, killed for killed. Vladimir Putin and his Siloviki continues a red army model. Heavy artillery, wave of men urging forward. The result, mass casualties. Total loss of life, and equipment.

What does Russians do if in trouble. Reversing to its all bag of tricks. Spies and sabotage. Recent Russian sabotage operations across Europe were “reckless”, Moore said, describing Russian intelligence as “having gone a bit feral”. But “in the UK that is not new”, he added, referring to the attempted assassination of Russian double agent Sergei Skripal in Salisbury in 2018.

Asked if Russian intelligence might be conducting similar sabotage operations against the US by abetting illegal migration across the Mexico border, Burns said: “It’s something we are very sharply focused on. Part of that is a function of so many Russian agents [being] kicked out of Europe. So, they are looking for somewhere to go instead.”

But these sometimes child like operations cause blowbacks. Operations and governments getting increasingly more sophisticated in exposing the intelligence operations and their agents.

Bangladesh, Laos, Sri Lanka are countries who are exposed to Russian interests. However, Russians have very little to offer.

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“The ongoing persecution and human rights violations against the Pamiri minority in Tajikistan reached an alarming scale years ago. But there is almost no one to ring the alarm bell. The Tajikistani authorities stifle virtually all information from the region, while the international community has largely overlooked this serious human rights crisis. It demands immediate attention and action from the international community to safeguard the rights and dignity of the Pamiri people,” said Marie Struthers, Amnesty International’s Director for Eastern Europe and Central Asia. 

The ongoing persecution and human rights violations against the Pamiri minority in Tajikistan reached an alarming scale years ago. But there is almost no one to ring the alarm bell

Marie Struthers, Amnesty International’s Director for Eastern Europe and Central Asia

Tajikistan: Reprisals against Pamiri minority, suppression of local identity, clampdown on all dissent highlights the violations of economic, social and cultural rights resulting from: the crackdown on Pamiri languages, cultural practices, and identities; the heavy presence of security forces from other regions of Tajikistan; violent repression of protest and widespread arbitrary detention; and socioeconomic marginalization faced by the Pamiri Ismaili community in Gorno-Badakhshan. 

Discrimination and securitization 

The central authorities have promoted a culture of prejudice against Pamiris. A state-sponsored narrative depicts them negatively, particularly Ismailis, leading to widespread discrimination. This policy manifests in repressive practices, including suppressing the use of Pamiri languages in media, education, and public life, excluding Pamiris from influential positions within the state administration and security apparatus, and extortion and destruction of local employment opportunities and Pamiri businesses. 

The heavy presence of security forces from other parts of Tajikistan reflects the authorities’ contempt for the Gorno-Badakhshan population. “The word ‘Pamiri’ [for the security forces] means […] separatist, oppositionist, main enemy,” said one of the interviewees. 

The presence of security agencies, including the Ministry of Internal Affairs (MIA) and the State Committee for National Security (SCNS), has significantly increased in GBAO. Security forces have set up armed cordons on roads and in city squares, including the capital city of GBAO, Khorugh, patrolled by heavily armed police and military. “The security forces in Khorugh behave like wolves looking after sheep. ‘You should not walk like this; you should not laugh!’” said one of the interviewees. 

Security operations in GBAO include surveillance, intimidation, and the excessive use of force — often justified as combating terrorism and organized crime — accompanied by arbitrary arrests and prosecutions of local informal leaders and ordinary Pamiris, despite a lack of credible evidence.  

“The heavy-handed securitization in Gorno-Badakhshan is beyond any scrutiny. The local population is perceived as hostile by the central government, and people are harassed and discriminated against on a daily basis,” said Marie Struthers. 

The heavy-handed securitization in Gorno-Badakhshan is beyond any scrutiny. The local population is perceived as hostile by the central government, and people are harassed and discriminated against on a daily basis

Marie Struthers, Amnesty International’s Director for Eastern Europe and Central Asia

2021-2022 crackdown and its aftermath 

Mounting tensions erupted after the killing of prominent Pamiri figure Gulbiddin Ziyobekov in November 2021. Officially described as the result of a shootout with law enforcement, evidence points to an unlawful killing of an unarmed man, which may amount to an extrajudicial execution. In response to a four-day protest in Khorugh, security forces used firearms against a crowd that had been peaceful until that point, killing two protesters and allegedly injuring around a dozen.  

“We escorted the women away […] to a safer location. At that time, a bullet hit me. They were shooting from the entrance of the building, wearing uniforms. Some of them were standing directly in the entrance, some of them were on the second or third floor,” said one protester, describing the indiscriminate use of lethal force by law enforcement officials. 

After false promises to effectively investigate, the authorities instead persecuted informal community leaders, harassed civil society, and intimidated and prosecuted ordinary Pamiris.  

A second outbreak of violence occurred in May 2022 when authorities violently dispersed peaceful protests in Khorugh and Rushan, resulting in the deaths of dozens of Pamiris, including informal leader Mamadbokir Mamadbokirov, shot by unidentified gunmen in a pickup — a likely extrajudicial execution. According to independent reports, 24 civilians died, some during the crackdown and some in alleged retaliatory unlawful killings.  

A subsequent crackdown on civil society followed with the arbitrary detention of more than 200 human rights defenders, dissenters, and influential figures such as journalist and activist Ulfatkhonim Mamadshoeva and lawyers Faromuz Irgashev and Manuchehr Kholiknazarov. In December 2023, they received 21, 29 and 15-year sentences respectively, in secret trials, with the details of the charges made public only six months later.  

Arbitrary detentions and torture 

The Tajikistani authorities routinely arbitrarily detain, allegedly torture, and engage in other ill-treatment of Pamiris, with reports of coerced confessions and fabricated charges of crimes against “public safety,” “fundamentals of the constitutional order” or “order of administration.” Legal proceedings lack transparency and due process, with many trials lasting only a few days. During the 2021-2022 crackdown, reports of torture and other ill-treatment were common.  

One of the detainees in the aftermath of the May 2022 protests said he was deprived of sleep for two days, beaten with fists and batons and hit on the head with a thick book. 

“When they asked and I did not answer, they wrapped wet tissues around my fingers, then [fixed it with] tape. They put clips and switched something on. The [electric] current was strong. They did it with different fingers. They did it twice every day, four times in all,” he said. 

The international community must urgently raise concerns about the human rights violations faced by Pamiris with the Tajikistani authorities

Marie Struthers, Amnesty International’s Director for Eastern Europe and Central Asia

“After the 2021-2022 protests in Gorno-Badakhshan, the systemic discrimination against the Pamiri community has become ever more entrenched, resulting in fear, harassment and violation of human rights. The international community must urgently raise concerns about the human rights violations faced by Pamiris with the Tajikistani authorities, in all possible fora not the least international fora, stand in solidarity with the Pamiri people, give protection to those who seek it abroad, and take decisive action to oppose this vicious system in Tajikistan,” said Marie Struthers. 

Source

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Once more Tajikistan comes on the radar screen. Who will be the next president of Tajikistan? How is the ban on the hijab helping the deradicalization of Tajik society? What is the role of the Chinese and Russian influence? And how is the relationship with the European Union coming along? 

Every year we face a plethora of Tajik issues, for example corruption and drug usage involving officials, now the ban on face veils, or the newest version a ban on black clothes. The desecration of the grave of one of leaders and the promotions of killer squad of the ministry of interiors. 

Despite the ICC dispatches a fact-finding mission on Tajikistan and reports back we need to ask the question what has changed, if anything? So far very little, to near nothing. Observers of the Tajik issue reports an uptick of Chinese involvement, or Russian press gang related issues to force Tajiks to army service in the Ukraine. 

The German foreign ministry is surprisingly mum about the situation in Tajikistan. The trust level is always low. Maybe the new “Iron Lady” will bring changes to the foreign relations debacle with Tajikistan. It’s about time. 

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Frankfurt, Paris (18/8 – 62.50)

Ukraine has scored a series of victories in more than a week since launching a lightning offensive into Russian territory. Now the stakes are rising as its forces prepare to defend their gains and Russia begins to regain its footing.

Last week, Ukraine deployed thousands of troops to the Kursk region in western Russia, removing Russian flags from captured towns and taking the initiative from Moscow for the first time in months. On Wednesday, officials in Kyiv said Ukraine would use seized Russian territory as a “buffer zone” to shield its north from Russian strikes.

Panic spread quickly among local Russian residents in the early hours of the assault, despite repeated attempts by authorities to assure them that everything was under control, according to a timeline by Reuters of the first two days of the incursion.

Oleksandr Syrskyi, head of the Ukrainian armed forces, said on Thursday that Kyiv had set up a military commandant’s office in the occupied part of Kursk, suggesting ambitions to dig in. The occupied area exceeds 1,150 sq km, Syrskyi said.

Ukraine’s goals at Kursk include diverting Russian forces from the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, where Russia has been making advances for months and is trying to seize the entire region, said Ukraine’s former defense minister, Andriy Zagorodnyuk. In addition to dealing a reputational blow to President Vladimir Putin, the largest invasion of Russia since World War II has decimated Russian forces, captured bargaining chips, and created a threat to Russia’s flank.

However, a Ukrainian foreign ministry spokesman said that Ukraine was “not interested” in permanently taking Russian land and that the territory was intended only as a bargaining chip in peace talks.

Kyiv-based military analyst Serhiy Zgurets predicted that Ukraine would try to maintain control of the area between the towns of Rylsk, Korenevoye, and Sudzha and the border, which gives Ukraine control of a strip about 20 km (12 miles) wide strip of Russian territory. “This line is not difficult to defend, given there are few roads and a large number of rivers,” he said, as quoted by Reuters.

Ukraine’s forces destroyed eight Russian attack drones and five out of eight missiles, Ukraine’s Air Force chief said on Sunday. As a result of the anti-aircraft combat, anti-aircraft missile troops of the Air Force, mobile firing groups of the Ukrainian Defence Forces, and electronic warfare units shot down 13 air targets in Kyiv, Sumy, and Poltava regions.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed that the operation to strengthen Ukrainian troops in Kursk, Russia, on Saturday (08/17/2024), went according to plan. He referred to Syrsky’s report, which mentioned the strengthening of Ukrainian troops’ positions in the Kursk region and the expansion of the controlled territory steadily. This is also related to the capture of Russian soldiers who will be used for future prisoner exchanges.

“I thank all the soldiers and commanders who are taking Russian soldiers. Thus, the release of our soldiers and civilians held by Russia is getting closer,” Zelensky said.

Meanwhile, to win the war over Ukraine, Russia has increased its propaganda budget in 2024 by 20% from its already massive $1.6 billion. Russian economists have been at the forefront of internet disinformation since at least 2014 when it pioneered the use of bot farms to spread fake news about its invasion of Crimea. The Kremlin is at it again, according to French authorities.

Viginum, the France’s foreign-disinformation watchdog, says it has detected preparations for a large disinformation campaign in France, Germany, Poland, and other European countries. The uncovering of a Russian network of 193 websites designed to spread “deceptive or false” content about the war in Ukraine, comes after a series of destabilization efforts that French authorities have attributed to Moscow.

The network, codenamed “Portal Kombat,” also targeted Germany, Poland, and France, which are thought as particular targets as the European Parliament elections draw nearer.

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