Donald Trump on the sidelines in France where he attended the re-opening of a change of direction of U.S. involvement in helping NATO and Ukraine. 

This was also confirmed by the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov speaking at the OSCE conference in Malta. The Russian take the signaling of the European and U.S. as concerning.  Trump is perceived as the rising star on the foreign affair domain as a tough negotiator. 

The toughness becomes evident with the former Lithuanian prime minister becoming the first dedicated defense commissioner this month, tasked with turbocharging Europe’s defense industry and the stuttering push to rearm.

Donald Trump is counting on the rearmament of the Europeans. The American tough hand played by Trump is not an act. It was shaped by years of dealings in the toughest property market, the gambling and money markets. Donald Trump will to “fight” was evident in his response to the shooting, “Fight, fight, fight” became a battle cry. 

Voices in the U.S. is concerned about NATO but all the pundits forget Trump is a gambler, he says one thing and does another. Creating strategic ambiguity is the trump card, so the pun, and keep the Russians guessing. 

Vladimir Putin should not be under any illusions. Donald J. Trump is a fighter. He has the guts to defend the United States and take on the Russian Federation. If anyone challenges this assumption, even it is China or Russia will experience the wrath of the United States. 

Since his unofficial inauguration at the French opening of Notre Dame the mood has changed. Heads of states who attended the opening were seen get close to the U.S. president. A shift of power has occurred. 

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Russia’s resurrected military industrial complex is cannibalising the rest of its economy

Ukraine is slowly losing the three-year conflict on the battlefield. Russia is slowly losing the economic conflict at a roughly equal pace. The Kremlin’s oil export revenues are too low to sustain a high-intensity war and nobody will lend Vladimir Putin a kopeck.

Russia’s overheated, military-Keynesian war economy looks much like the dysfunctional German war economy of late 1917, which had run out of skilled manpower and was holed below the waterline after three years of Allied blockade – as the logistical failures of the Ludendorff offensive would later reveal.

Putin’s strategic victory in Ukraine was far from inevitable a fortnight ago and it is less inevitable now after the Assad regime collapsed like a house of cards, shattering Putin’s credibility in the Middle East and the Sahel. He could do nothing to save his sole state ally in the Arab world.

“The limits of Russian military power have been revealed,” said Tim Ash, a regional expert at Bluebay Asset Management and a Chatham House fellow.

Turkey is now master of the region. Turkish forces had to step in to rescue stranded Russian generals. Even if Putin succeeds in holding on to his naval base at Tartus – a big if – this concession will be on Ottoman terms and sufferance. “Putin now goes into Ukraine peace talks from a position of weakness,” said Mr Ash.

When Trump won the US elections in 2016, corks of Golubitskoe Villa Romanov popped at the Kremlin. There were no illusions this time. Anton Barbashin from Riddle Russia says Donald Trump imposed 40 rounds of sanctions on Russia, belying his bonhomie with Putin before the cameras. He has since warned that Putin will not get all of the four annexed (but unconquered) oblasts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia.

The Kremlin had banked on a contested election outcome in the US, followed by months of disarray that would discredit US democracy across the world. The polite interregnum has been a cruel disappointment.

Barbashin says Russia’s leaders expect Trump to issue ultimatums to both Kyiv and Moscow: if Volodymyr Zelensky balks at peace terms, the US will sever all military aid; if Putin drags his feet, the US will up the military ante and carpet-bomb the Russian economy.

That economy held up well for two years but this third year has become harder. The central bank has raised interest rates to 21pc to choke off an inflation spiral. “The economy cannot exist like this for long. It’s a colossal challenge for business and banks,” said German Gref, Sberbank’s chief executive.

Sergei Chemezov, head of the defence giant Rostec, said the monetary squeeze was becoming dangerous. “If we continue like this, most companies will essentially go bankrupt. At rates of more than 20pc, I don’t know of a single business that can make a profit, not even an arms trader,” he said.

The resurrection of the Soviet military industrial complex – to borrow a term from Pierre-Marie Meunier, the French intelligence analyst – is cannibalising the rest of the economy. Some 800,000 of the young and best-educated have left the country. The numbers slaughtered or maimed in the meat grinder are approaching half a million.

Russia’s digital minister says the shortage of IT workers is around 600,000. The defence industry has 400,000 unfilled positions. The total labour shortage is near 5m.

Anatoly Kovalev, head of Zelenograd Nanotechnology Centre, said his industry was crippled by lack of equipment and could not replace foreign supplies. “There is a shortage of qualified specialists: engineers, technologists, developers, designers. There are practically no colleges and technical schools that train personnel for the industry,” he said.

Total export earnings from all fossil fuels were running at about $1.2bn (£940m) a day in mid-2022. They have fallen for the last 10 months consecutively and are now barely $600mn. The Kremlin takes a slice of this for the budget but it is far too little to fund a war machine gobbling up a 10th of GDP in one way or another.

Oil tax revenues slumped to $5.8bn in November, based on a Urals price averaging near $65 a barrel. That price could fall a lot further. Russia is facing an incipient price war with Saudi Arabia in Asian markets.

Putin is raiding the National Wealth Fund to cover the shortfall. Its liquid assets have fallen to a 16-year low of $54bn. Its gold reserves have dropped from 554 to 279 tonnes over the last 15 months. The fund is left with illiquid holdings that cannot be crystallised, such as an equity stake in Aeroflot.

The long-awaited rally in oil prices keeps refusing to happen. JP Morgan said excess global supply next year would reach 1.3m barrels a day due to rising output from Brazil, Guyana, and US shale. Rosneft’s Igor Sechin has told his old KGB friend Putin to brace for $45-$50 next year. Adjusted for inflation, that matches levels that bankrupted the Soviet Union in the 1980s.

The purpose of the G7’s convoluted oil sanctions was – until a month ago – to eat into Putin’s revenue without curtailing global oil supply and worsening the cost of living shock in the West. This has been a partial success. Russia had to assemble a shadow fleet of tankers and ship oil from Baltic and Black Sea ports to buyers in India and China, who pressed a hard bargain.

The International Energy Agency estimates that the discount on Urals crude has averaged $15 over 2023 to 2024, depriving Putin of $75m a day in export revenues.

Russia can get around technology sanctions but its systems are configured to western semiconductors. These chips cannot easily be replaced by Chinese suppliers, even if they were willing to risk US secondary sanctions, which most are not. The chips are bought at a stiff premium on the global black market and are unreliable.

Ukrainian troops have noticed that Russian Geran-2 drones keep spinning out of control. The Washington Post reports that laser-guided devices on Russia’s T-90M tanks have “mysteriously disappeared”, greatly reducing capability.

The industry ministry has been trying to develop analogues to replace chips from Texas Instruments, Aeroflex and Cypress but admitted in October that all three tenders had failed. Alexey Novoselov from the circuits company Milandr said Russia could not obtain the insulator technologies needed to make chips of 90 nanometers or below. It is the dark ages.

The US tightened the noose three weeks ago, imposing sanctions on Gazprombank and over 50 Russian banks linked to global transactions. This has greatly complicated Russia’s ability to trade energy and buy technology on the black market. It briefly crashed the ruble, now hovering at around 100 to the dollar.

Chinese banks have stopped accepting Russian UnionPay cards. The Chinese press says exporters have pulled back from Russian e-commerce sites such as Yandez or Wildberries because payment fees through third-parties no longer cover thin profit margins. Some have been unable to extract their money from Russia and are facing large losses.

Few foresaw the sudden and total collapse of the Soviet regime, though all the signs of economic decay and imperial overreach were there to see by 1989.

Putin’s regime is not yet at this point but it would only take one more change in the Middle East to bring matters to a head. If the Saudis again decide to flood the world with cheap crude to recoup market share – as many predict – oil will fall below $40 and Russia will spin out of economic control.

The Ukraine war may end in Riyadh.

Source

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Beijing says that sales ‘seriously’ violate one-China principle and 3 China-US joint communiques

China on Sunday deplored and “firmly” opposed US arms sales to Taiwan, saying it “seriously” violates the one-China principle and the three Beijing-Washington joint communiques.

A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that Beijing has lodged “serious” protests to the US over the latest arms sales, according to the state-run Xinhua news agency.

Washington on Saturday announced that it has approved $385 million worth of arms sales to Taiwan.

“The US arms sales to China’s Taiwan region seriously violate the one-China principle and the three China-US joint communiques, especially the August 17 Communique of 1982 and China’s sovereignty and security interests,” the spokesperson said.

The decision to sell arms to Taiwan is simply inconsistent with US leaders’ commitment of not supporting “Taiwan independence,” Beijing further said.

“We call on the US to immediately stop arming Taiwan and stop abetting and supporting ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces in seeking ‘Taiwan independence’ by building up its military,” the spokesperson said, adding: “China will take strong and resolute countermeasures to firmly defend national sovereignty, security and territorial integrity.”

Source

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A new campaign, “Against Book Burning,” launched by education activists, is drawing attention to the Taliban’s censorship and removal of books across several provinces.

Humaira Qaderi, a writer and university professor, along with her brother Khalid Qaderi, initiated the campaign to counter what they describe as the Taliban’s “policy of erasure and repression.”

According to Ms. Qaderi, the Taliban have censored thousands of books and confiscated them from libraries and universities nationwide.

“This is part of a systematic attempt to suppress knowledge,” Ms. Qaderi said, noting that hundreds of titles have been deemed “undesirable” and access to them banned, particularly in Herat province.

The campaign has garnered support both inside and outside Afghanistan, with people participating by sharing videos of themselves reading books in solidarity.

“We are seeing people from all walks of life join this movement by celebrating the very act the Taliban want to silence — reading,” Ms. Qaderi said.

She sharply criticized the Taliban’s actions, calling the confiscation of so-called “forbidden books” an attack on intellectual freedom.

For nearly three years under Taliban rule, Afghans have faced increasing restrictions, with cultural and intellectual freedoms among the casualties of the regime’s hardline governance. Ms. Qaderi noted that the crackdown on books is part of a broader pattern of repression that has left Afghan citizens grappling with profound challenges.

Source

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The committee intends to visit Afghanistan, Mozambique, New Zealand, Peru, Serbia, Burundi, France, and Mexico.

In a statement, the committee said: “The UN Subcommittee on Prevention of Torture (SPT) has announced and confirmed plans to visit Mozambique, New Zealand, Peru, Serbia, Afghanistan, Burundi, France, and Mexico at the conclusion of its latest session.”

Yousuf Amin Zazai, a political affairs analyst, highlighted the significance of these visits: “Human rights issues, such as citizens’ rights, prison conditions, and case reviews, are matters the government must allow to present a true picture of Afghanistan to the world.”

The Islamic Emirate has not yet commented on the committee’s planned visit to Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, some political analysts consider these visits important and emphasize the need to present a realistic picture of Afghanistan’s situation.

“If the objectives of these organizations are realistic, closely examining Afghanistan’s human, social, and cultural rights situation can be commendable, and the public will welcome such efforts,” said Abdul Jabbar Akbari, another political analyst.

The Subcommittee on Prevention of Torture is one of the eight UN committees related to human rights treaties.

All member states of the UN Convention Against Torture are required to submit regular reports on how they are implementing input from this committee.

Source

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An Afghan environment official on Sunday said the country must be allowed to participate in future global climate talks, after returning from COP29 in Baku where Taliban officials attended for the first time.

The Afghan delegation were invited as “guests” of the Azerbaijani hosts, not as a party directly involved in the negotiations.

It was the first time that an Afghan delegation had attended since the Taliban swept to power in August 2021, having failed to get an invite to the past two COPs (Conference of the Parties) held in Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.

“Afghanistan must participate in such conferences in the future,” said Matiul Haq Khalis, the director general of Afghanistan’s National Environmental Protection Agency, at a press conference on Sunday.

He described Afghanistan’s attendance last month at the talks as a “big achievement.”

“We participated in the conference this year so that we could raise the voice of the nation about the issues we are facing, what the needs of the people are, we must share these things with the world.”

He said the Afghan delegation had meetings with “19 different organizations and governments,” including with delegations from Russia, Qatar, Azerbaijan and Bangladesh.

Afghanistan is among the countries most vulnerable to global warming, despite minimal emissions, and the Taliban government have argued that their political isolation should not bar them from international climate talks.

The government has imposed an austere version of sharia Islamic law since taking power, severely restricting women’s participation in public life in what the United Nations has called a “gender apartheid.”

Among the poorest countries in the world after decades of war, Afghanistan is particularly exposed to the effects of climate change, which scientists say is spurring extreme weather including prolonged drought, frequent floods, and declining agricultural productivity.

The United Nations has also called for action to help Afghanistan build resilience and for the country’s participation in international talks.

Developed countries have committed to providing $100 billion per year in climate finance through 2025 to help developing nations prepare for worsening climate impacts and wean their economies off fossil fuels.

Source

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Foreign Minister Wang Yi also said he would seek to boost investment in the country at a meeting with his Central Asian counterparts

China is keen to expand energy cooperation with Turkmenistan, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Saturday.

Wang met his counterpart Rashid Meredov, who is also Turkmenistan’s vice-president, on the sidelines of the China-Central Asia Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Chengdu, state news agency Xinhua reported.

Wang also said China was willing to further expand the scale of trade and investment cooperation with Turkmenistan and would encourage more Chinese enterprises to invest in the country.

The meeting, which ends on Sunday, was also attended by the foreign ministers of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, Central Asian partners that are growing in importance for China.

Wang also met Jeenbek Kulubaev, the foreign minister of Kyrgyzstan, a key player in an US$8 billion rail project that starts in Kashgar in China’s western Xinjiang region and goes through southwest Kyrgyzstan before ending in Andijan in eastern Uzbekistan.

The rail project is designed to cut the freight journey between China and Europe by 900km (560 miles), serving as a faster and cheaper alternative to existing China-Europe land routes, most of which pass through Russia.

The project was first proposed in the 1990s but had been beset by a series of technical, political and geopolitical problems before the three countries reached an agreement in June.

While in Chengdu, Wang also met his Nepalese counterpart Arzu Rana Deuba on Friday.

Deuba was visiting to prepare for the visit of Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli, which starts on Monday.

According to the Nepalese foreign ministry, the talks focused on trade, tourism and connectivity projects – including a cross-border railway project and a tunnel linking the capital Kathmandu to Chhahare in Nuwakot district, a stop on a major trade route between the two countries.

“China is ready to work with Nepal to embrace new prospects for the development of China-Nepal relations by taking the opportunity of the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties next year,” Wang said, adding that the two sides had made joint efforts to promote cooperation.

Deuba said Nepal appreciated the concept of building a community with a shared future for humanity, and was willing to take part in President Xi Jinping’s Global Development Initiative.

Source

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Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Sunday met with Tajikistan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Sirojiddin Muhriddin in the city of Chengdu, southwest China’s Sichuan Province, with both sides vowing to deepen all-round cooperation.

China supports Tajikistan in pursuing a development path suited to its own national conditions and opposes any external interference in the internal affairs of Tajikistan, said Wang, who is also a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee.

He called on the two sides to help each other’s development and revitalization with tangible cooperation results.

Muhriddin, who is in Chengdu to attend the fifth China-Central Asia Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, expressed gratitude for China’s strong support for improving Tajik people’s livelihoods.

Tajikistan will never change its position of firmly adhering to the one-China principle and is willing to deepen all-round cooperation with the Chinese side and welcome more Chinese enterprises to invest in Tajikistan, he added.

Source

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Kazakh women’s team won a bronze medal at the ISU Junior World Cup Speed Skating 2024 in Tomaszow Mazowiecki, Poland, Kazinform News Agency cites the Kazakh National Olympic Committee.

Anastasia Belovodova, Arina Iliyashchenko and Alyona Lifatova defended the country’s colors at the event.

Germany took gold at the ISU Junior World Cup Speed Skating 2024, followed by Norway.

As earlier reported, Kazakh boxer Dulat Bekbauov won the first match in the men’s 67 kg bout at the ASBC Asian Elite Men and Women Boxing Championships in Chiang Mai, Thailand.

Source

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Cryptocurrency ownership is gaining popularity across Central Asia and the Caucasus, according to a report prepared by a group of financial services companies. Uzbekistan has the highest adoption rate for crypto assets in the regions and ranks 33rd globally.

The Russian-language report, titled Digital Assets in Central Asia and the Caucasus, shows that almost 1.5 percent of Uzbekistan’s population, or roughly 512,000 individuals, owns cryptocurrency. The 15 licensed cryptocurrency exchanges and outlets operating in Uzbekistan handled over $1 billion worth of transactions in 2024, the report adds. 

Just two years ago, Uzbekistan ranked 87th in global crypto adoption. In 2023, the country shot up to 25th in the world rankings before falling back to 33rd this year. Despite slipping, Uzbekistan still outpaces its Central Asian neighbors when it comes to crypto asset adoption. Kazakhstan ranked 57th in the world and Kyrgyzstan 76th, according to the report. Tajikistan and Turkmenistan were not ranked.

Kazakhstan’s ranking might be much higher, if not for a far-reaching government regulatory initiative covering cryptocurrency production and usage. No official data on crypto assets is available for Kazakhstan, but some independent estimates indicate 8 percent of the population may hold cryptocurrency.

In 2021, Kazakhstan emerged as a leading center for cryptocurrency mining following a crackdown in China on the practice, which requires immense amounts of electricity. By the fall of that year, Kazakhstan’s global Bitcoin hashrate, an indicator of the amount of power being used to produce cryptocurrency, was over 27 percent. During the same period, the country experienced power outages as the electricity grid buckled under the rising demand.

The Kazakh government in following years introduced measures to hinder crypto mining, including the introduction of steep tariffs for intensive power usage. As a result, the country’s Bitcoin hashrate fell to 4 percent in May 2023. 

The number of mining operations in Kazakhstan likewise plummeted between 2021 and mid-2023, going from 330 to 26. But over the past 15 months, the number of mining outfits have risen to 51, the report states. At the same time the government took steps to hinder mining, it introduced regulatory changes to enable officials to better monitor crypto transactions. In late 2023, Kazakhstan also introduced a digital currency under Central Bank supervision that is designed to compete with cryptocurrencies.

In the Caucasus, Georgia has the highest global ranking in crypto asset adoption, coming in at 54th. That position, however, is 17 spots lower than Tbilisi’s ranking in 2022. Armenia was 77th and Azerbaijan came in at 92nd, according to the report, which was sponsored by a variety of financial services entities, including Mastercard, KPMG and the National Payment Corporation of Kazakhstan.

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