Donald Trump on the sidelines in France where he attended the re-opening of a change of direction of U.S. involvement in helping NATO and Ukraine. 

This was also confirmed by the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov speaking at the OSCE conference in Malta. The Russian take the signaling of the European and U.S. as concerning.  Trump is perceived as the rising star on the foreign affair domain as a tough negotiator. 

The toughness becomes evident with the former Lithuanian prime minister becoming the first dedicated defense commissioner this month, tasked with turbocharging Europe’s defense industry and the stuttering push to rearm.

Donald Trump is counting on the rearmament of the Europeans. The American tough hand played by Trump is not an act. It was shaped by years of dealings in the toughest property market, the gambling and money markets. Donald Trump will to “fight” was evident in his response to the shooting, “Fight, fight, fight” became a battle cry. 

Voices in the U.S. is concerned about NATO but all the pundits forget Trump is a gambler, he says one thing and does another. Creating strategic ambiguity is the trump card, so the pun, and keep the Russians guessing. 

Vladimir Putin should not be under any illusions. Donald J. Trump is a fighter. He has the guts to defend the United States and take on the Russian Federation. If anyone challenges this assumption, even it is China or Russia will experience the wrath of the United States. 

Since his unofficial inauguration at the French opening of Notre Dame the mood has changed. Heads of states who attended the opening were seen get close to the U.S. president. A shift of power has occurred. 

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Russia’s resurrected military industrial complex is cannibalising the rest of its economy

Ukraine is slowly losing the three-year conflict on the battlefield. Russia is slowly losing the economic conflict at a roughly equal pace. The Kremlin’s oil export revenues are too low to sustain a high-intensity war and nobody will lend Vladimir Putin a kopeck.

Russia’s overheated, military-Keynesian war economy looks much like the dysfunctional German war economy of late 1917, which had run out of skilled manpower and was holed below the waterline after three years of Allied blockade – as the logistical failures of the Ludendorff offensive would later reveal.

Putin’s strategic victory in Ukraine was far from inevitable a fortnight ago and it is less inevitable now after the Assad regime collapsed like a house of cards, shattering Putin’s credibility in the Middle East and the Sahel. He could do nothing to save his sole state ally in the Arab world.

“The limits of Russian military power have been revealed,” said Tim Ash, a regional expert at Bluebay Asset Management and a Chatham House fellow.

Turkey is now master of the region. Turkish forces had to step in to rescue stranded Russian generals. Even if Putin succeeds in holding on to his naval base at Tartus – a big if – this concession will be on Ottoman terms and sufferance. “Putin now goes into Ukraine peace talks from a position of weakness,” said Mr Ash.

When Trump won the US elections in 2016, corks of Golubitskoe Villa Romanov popped at the Kremlin. There were no illusions this time. Anton Barbashin from Riddle Russia says Donald Trump imposed 40 rounds of sanctions on Russia, belying his bonhomie with Putin before the cameras. He has since warned that Putin will not get all of the four annexed (but unconquered) oblasts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia.

The Kremlin had banked on a contested election outcome in the US, followed by months of disarray that would discredit US democracy across the world. The polite interregnum has been a cruel disappointment.

Barbashin says Russia’s leaders expect Trump to issue ultimatums to both Kyiv and Moscow: if Volodymyr Zelensky balks at peace terms, the US will sever all military aid; if Putin drags his feet, the US will up the military ante and carpet-bomb the Russian economy.

That economy held up well for two years but this third year has become harder. The central bank has raised interest rates to 21pc to choke off an inflation spiral. “The economy cannot exist like this for long. It’s a colossal challenge for business and banks,” said German Gref, Sberbank’s chief executive.

Sergei Chemezov, head of the defence giant Rostec, said the monetary squeeze was becoming dangerous. “If we continue like this, most companies will essentially go bankrupt. At rates of more than 20pc, I don’t know of a single business that can make a profit, not even an arms trader,” he said.

The resurrection of the Soviet military industrial complex – to borrow a term from Pierre-Marie Meunier, the French intelligence analyst – is cannibalising the rest of the economy. Some 800,000 of the young and best-educated have left the country. The numbers slaughtered or maimed in the meat grinder are approaching half a million.

Russia’s digital minister says the shortage of IT workers is around 600,000. The defence industry has 400,000 unfilled positions. The total labour shortage is near 5m.

Anatoly Kovalev, head of Zelenograd Nanotechnology Centre, said his industry was crippled by lack of equipment and could not replace foreign supplies. “There is a shortage of qualified specialists: engineers, technologists, developers, designers. There are practically no colleges and technical schools that train personnel for the industry,” he said.

Total export earnings from all fossil fuels were running at about $1.2bn (£940m) a day in mid-2022. They have fallen for the last 10 months consecutively and are now barely $600mn. The Kremlin takes a slice of this for the budget but it is far too little to fund a war machine gobbling up a 10th of GDP in one way or another.

Oil tax revenues slumped to $5.8bn in November, based on a Urals price averaging near $65 a barrel. That price could fall a lot further. Russia is facing an incipient price war with Saudi Arabia in Asian markets.

Putin is raiding the National Wealth Fund to cover the shortfall. Its liquid assets have fallen to a 16-year low of $54bn. Its gold reserves have dropped from 554 to 279 tonnes over the last 15 months. The fund is left with illiquid holdings that cannot be crystallised, such as an equity stake in Aeroflot.

The long-awaited rally in oil prices keeps refusing to happen. JP Morgan said excess global supply next year would reach 1.3m barrels a day due to rising output from Brazil, Guyana, and US shale. Rosneft’s Igor Sechin has told his old KGB friend Putin to brace for $45-$50 next year. Adjusted for inflation, that matches levels that bankrupted the Soviet Union in the 1980s.

The purpose of the G7’s convoluted oil sanctions was – until a month ago – to eat into Putin’s revenue without curtailing global oil supply and worsening the cost of living shock in the West. This has been a partial success. Russia had to assemble a shadow fleet of tankers and ship oil from Baltic and Black Sea ports to buyers in India and China, who pressed a hard bargain.

The International Energy Agency estimates that the discount on Urals crude has averaged $15 over 2023 to 2024, depriving Putin of $75m a day in export revenues.

Russia can get around technology sanctions but its systems are configured to western semiconductors. These chips cannot easily be replaced by Chinese suppliers, even if they were willing to risk US secondary sanctions, which most are not. The chips are bought at a stiff premium on the global black market and are unreliable.

Ukrainian troops have noticed that Russian Geran-2 drones keep spinning out of control. The Washington Post reports that laser-guided devices on Russia’s T-90M tanks have “mysteriously disappeared”, greatly reducing capability.

The industry ministry has been trying to develop analogues to replace chips from Texas Instruments, Aeroflex and Cypress but admitted in October that all three tenders had failed. Alexey Novoselov from the circuits company Milandr said Russia could not obtain the insulator technologies needed to make chips of 90 nanometers or below. It is the dark ages.

The US tightened the noose three weeks ago, imposing sanctions on Gazprombank and over 50 Russian banks linked to global transactions. This has greatly complicated Russia’s ability to trade energy and buy technology on the black market. It briefly crashed the ruble, now hovering at around 100 to the dollar.

Chinese banks have stopped accepting Russian UnionPay cards. The Chinese press says exporters have pulled back from Russian e-commerce sites such as Yandez or Wildberries because payment fees through third-parties no longer cover thin profit margins. Some have been unable to extract their money from Russia and are facing large losses.

Few foresaw the sudden and total collapse of the Soviet regime, though all the signs of economic decay and imperial overreach were there to see by 1989.

Putin’s regime is not yet at this point but it would only take one more change in the Middle East to bring matters to a head. If the Saudis again decide to flood the world with cheap crude to recoup market share – as many predict – oil will fall below $40 and Russia will spin out of economic control.

The Ukraine war may end in Riyadh.

Source

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Many have taken out loans with floating rates, which creates a risk of widespread bankruptcies.

Marina Malakhatko, a senior director at the consulting firm CORE.XP, told the Russian media outlet Kommersant that at least 200 shopping malls will be at risk of bankruptcy in 2025. She said some owners are already looking to sell their assets.

Debt servicing has become even tougher after Russia‘s Central Bank was forced to hike interest rates to 21 percent – the highest level in over 20 years.

The Union of Shopping Centres (STTs) estimates that half of the country’s shopping centres are facing high debt burdens.

Many have taken out loans with floating rates, which creates a risk of widespread bankruptcies.

Marina Malakhatko, a senior director at the consulting firm CORE.XP, told the Russian media outlet Kommersant that at least 200 shopping malls will be at risk of bankruptcy in 2025. She said some owners are already looking to sell their assets.

Debt servicing has become even tougher after Russia‘s Central Bank was forced to hike interest rates to 21 percent – the highest level in over 20 years.

Russians have also faced tax increases, as the Kremlin seeks to raise more money to fund its war in Ukraine.

Government spending on national defence is expected to rise to $120 billion (£93bn this year from $75 billion (£58bn) in 2023.

In the summer Putin signed off on a package of tax rises worth almost $30 billion (£23bn), tapping workers and companies to raise more funds for his Ukraine offensive.

Source

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Washington 6 Nov (50). Russian officials and proxy authorities in Russia-controlled areas of Ukraine are undertaking a monumental effort to “filter” the population as a means of suppressing Ukrainian resistance and enforcing loyalty among the remaining population.

The United States condemns Russia’s “filtration” operations, forced deportations, and disappearances in Russia-controlled areas of Ukraine in which Russia’s forces and proxies have interrogated, detained, and forcibly deported Ukrainian, according to a broad range of sources, between 900,000 and 1.6 million Ukrainian citizens, including thousands of children. 

Ukrainian citizens are being taken to filtration camps in a concerted effort to suppress their resistance. Many Ukrainian citizens are facing forced deportations, arbitrary detentions, and torture and other abuses.

While at filtration camps, Ukrainian citizens are often strip-searched for “nationalistic” tattoos, photographed, and have their fingerprints taken. Ukrainian citizens have had their passports confiscated and their cell phones searched, with Russia’s forces sometimes downloading their contact lists.

There is evidence that Russia’s forces have interrogated, detained, and forcibly deported to Russia an estimated hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian citizens, including unaccompanied children, from their homes, often sending them to remote regions in Russia.

The United States has information that officials from Russia’s Presidential Administration are overseeing and coordinating filtration operations. Russia is also using advanced technology to facilitate filtration processes, including for the purposes of collecting data on Ukrainian citizens undergoing filtration.

As part of this effort, the United States has information that over the course of July 2022, more than 1,800 children were reported to have been transferred from Russia-controlled areas of Ukraine to Russia.  Once in Russia, some reports indicate that children undergo psychological “rehabilitation” and are forced to complete unspecified educational projects.

Thousands of Ukrainian children were reported to have been transferred to Russia. Once in Russia, some reports indicate that Ukrainian children undergo what Russia refers to as psychological “rehabilitation” and are forced to complete unspecified educational projects. 

Some of these children have no identity documents or information on the location of their parents. As part of this forced deportation, plans are being developed to place orphaned Ukrainian children with foster families in Russia, in collaboration with other executive agencies in the Russian government.

Children have been evacuated from Mariupol to Russia-controlled areas of Ukraine, and then to Russia. Some children lack any identity documents or information on the location or whereabouts of their parents. 

To facilitate the forced deportation and resettlement of children, officials in Russia-controlled areas of Ukraine are developing administrative arrangements to place orphans with  families in Russia, in collaboration with Russian executive agencies.

Separately, as of July 2022, Russian officials reportedly forced prisoners in a Russia-held area of Ukraine to apply for Russian citizenship.  Prisoners who refused to apply were subjected to physical and psychological abuse.

The United States supports all international efforts to examine mounting evidence of atrocities and other abuses in Ukraine, including fact-finding missions conducted by the International Criminal Court, the United Nations, the Experts Missions established by invocation of the OSCE’s Moscow Mechanism, and other efforts. We also support a wide range of documentation initiatives that can support such investigations.

Source

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London 30 October (20).

In 2014, Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula. That same year, Russian special operation forces captured Donetsk and Luhansk, two of the main cities in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine and created puppet pro-Russian regimes there to further destabilize Ukraine.

Media, academic and general coverage of the War on the Doorsteps of Europe received shock, disbelief and a bizarre debate on the greatness of the Russian Federation. In particularly a German article received my attention which ought to be considered. The Russian Federation is morally bankrupt.

Regardless of the BRICS meetings and the self-flagellation of its political leadership and worlds hope to finally get even with the evil western powers Russia is not seven feet tall, leaps over tall building or other self-proclamation. The Russia that I know has broken lifts, streets with potholes, near third world poverty, alcoholism, brute violence and regardless how we view the Russian Federation a dictatorship.

That is the Russia that I know. In some verbal diarrhea a well written German author compares Russia with Prussia, recalls the history of Czar Kathrine, the vastness and wealth of the Russian Federation. In good old German traditions, he drives on the wealth of the Russian Federation. He speaks of roams of Gold, and Diamonds, and richness beyond anybody imaginations.

Let me educate the public on all these nonsensical narratives. Because they are false. Like the United States who beaten the English, Russia was bankrupt in the 1990s. The states broke away as fast as they could. They wanted nothing from the Russians. The Russian core, so often praised, was stuck in the mining towns of the Soviet Union with no jobs, and a few options available, drunkenness was rampant.

The Russian needed American, English, South African mining technology and engineers. The town was a secret city. Not on any one map. The local Gulag provided workers for a couple of dollars that without doubt went to the pocket of the local police. We had murderers, thieves and the rest of the outcasts of society. Russians laughed about the technology from the west because they could not imagine a bunch of cowboys as we were called, could make gold out of the dust which the Russians thrown away. But we did, and the money went to the private bank accounts of the regime in London. It’s an open secret but it is.

The Russian wealth the German author so euphorically quotes went to the coffers of the regime with accounts in the West. The average Russian saw zero of the wealth.

Fun fact. And since Catherine the Great, which was a German by her Pomeranian origins, Princess Sophie of Anhalt-Zerbst, came to power by overthrowing her husband, Peter III who was born in Kiel, Germany. The increasing demands of the state and of private landowners intensified the exploitation of serf labor which resulted in riots and uprisings. She had him overthrown and a legitimate successor murdered. So much for democracy in Russia.

In the German psyche the cleavages to compare Russia with Prussia is as far fetched as claiming the United States as part of England. The English lost, and like Russia it has little consequence for Russia today.

The fact that Russia was once a superpower has no bearing to the ambitions of today. The geographical relations with Moscow are for history books. And BRICS being a society of like-minded countries, we’ll see.

It is more like a military with competing interests. For example, the South China Sea is in the hinterlands of the Russian Federation and competing interests of China and Russia. Will Malaysia, now proud member of BRICS surrenders its claims since it joined BRICS?

Neither has the claims on the Ukraine. The Russian unison is rather a mysterious animal. The Russian Federation of today is as un-unified as ever can be. The German explanation of not having achieved the war strategy for NATO and the EU is so typically wrapped in some wishful make belief of CNN quick and dirty Gulf war victory. Germany must learn to defend itself and win wars. This is an uncomfortable truth. Defeat of Russia is the only option. Get on with it.

The debate about winning and forecasting wars has entered the academic debate. A Ukrainian academic completed a detailed analysis on the causes of the war and how it will end. Its noteworthy to read, even if you are German.

A substantial percentage of the local population of the Donbas region, predominantly Russian speaking Ukrainians and ethnic Russians, wanted to join Russia, as the government promised them higher pensions. The average monthly pension in Russia in 2013 was about $285 per month, while the average pension in Ukraine was $160.

The Russian government used its bluffing techniques to threaten the West with the use of a nuclear weapon. The West responded to Russian aggression by expressing their numerous concerns and introducing mild sanctions against Russia, Crimea, and occupied Donbas.

The continued influx of money from the West to Russia, approximately $1 billion per day for mostly gas and oil, encouraged the Russian government to start a full-scale war against Ukraine on 24 February 2022. This money flow has to change.

The goal was to occupy Ukraine, exterminate pockets of resistance, and add Ukraine to the Russian-led union like the USSR. The Russian army attacked Ukraine from the north, east, and south, and used the blitzkrieg method of a massive attack. The Russian government was counting on the fast collapse of the Ukrainian army and the rapid capture of the Ukrainian capital. This did not happen. 

Western military experts have grossly overestimated the quality of the Russian army. They predicted the collapse of Ukraine in seventy-two hours, repeating the Russian propaganda mantra that Kyiv will be taken in three days. The Western experts and leadership were wrong again, in part due to their limited understanding of the Ukrainian culture with deep-rooted military history, ingenuity, and passionate desire to end centuries-long Russian oppression and genocide of the Ukrainian people. The death of the experts. The Russian army is as broken as it was in 1991. Poor barracks, old kit, non-existing combat casualty treatment centers, abusive command, drunkenness, corruption and abuse.

This could be explained by the large number of ethnic Russians and saboteurs among the local governments of southern Ukraine. In contrast, predominantly Ukrainian speaking people of the Kherson region started mass protests within the first days of the Russian invasion. The map shows otherwise.

The Russian government is using its resources to soften, fracture, and destabilize Ukraine. The Russian army attacked Ukrainian energy infrastructure to cut off electricity, heat, and water, and increase the scale of the humanitarian disaster in Ukraine during the winter. The Russian ‘Blitz’ will come with long teeth. Killing kids, attacks against hospitals, and the elderly will not be forgotten. It hardened the Ukrainian resolve.

The Russian government is expecting that the Ukrainian people will not want to suffer any longer and will demand the Ukrainian government to enter peace negotiations. This is the same tactic with the same verbiage used by Nazi Germany in 1940, trying to force Great Britain to surrender.

Rapid defeat of the Russian forces could reduce the number of Ukrainian casualties, especially among the Ukrainian civilians, as well as the overall damage to the Ukrainian infrastructure and the total costs of the war to Ukraine and NATO partners. The decision makers in NATO and the EU need to recognize this. Experts err.

Ukraine wants to join NATO or another powerful military block, to make sure that in the future, Russia will be afraid to attack Ukraine again. This is the war for the survival of the Ukrainian people who remember the twentieth century as the century of the systematic Ukrainian genocide by Soviet Russia, including three famines and forced labor and death in the Russian concentration camps.

However, the West underestimated the ability of the Russian Federation to survive economic hardship. As of today, there are no significant instabilities in the Russian Federation. The Russian government was able to stabilize its internal processes. Most likely, the West is uncomfortable with the unknown outcomes of possible collapse of the Russian Federation.

Based on my observations, Ukrainian people desire the collapse of the Russian Federation as soon as possible. There is a reasonable and rather predictable time window for their collapse.

In a simplified war duration model, the time window for the war end can be estimated from the duration of the first successful for the adversary phase, that is, the time interval between the start of the war and the time when the adversary became exhausted.

The End of Russia (as we know it)

Regional separations and collapse of the Russian Federation should occur between 10 June 2024 and 4 February 2025. According to the model accounting for possible delays due to the weapon supplies, bad weather, peace talks, etc., the collapse of the Russian Federation will likely occur on or around 28 May 2026.

I believe that the collapse of the USSR in 1991 was incomplete, because it did not split its main member— the Russian Federation into several states. The same flat plate model with the same coefficients was used to estimate the earliest date for the collapse of the USSR.

Subsequent recovery peaks of different amplitude should occur every four to eight years.

One can reasonably expect that Russia’s recovery peaks should lead to new territorial expansion wars initiated by Russia every four to eight years. According to the simplified models with no damping (no delaying factors), the largest peaks for the Russian aggression should develop in December 2002, July 2013, and January 2021.

The flat plate model with moderate damping predicted the collapse of the USSR around 17 June 2001, and periodic attempts of the Moscow government to rebuild the USSR, with its peak efforts around July 2013, August 2025, and September 2043.

The plate model with relatively strong damping representing stronger effort of the West to stabilize the collapsing USSR, produced rather soft collapse of the USSR around 1 July 2007, with subsequent recovery and attempts to rebuild the USSR.

However, in the case of strong damping (meaning strong Western efforts to support the collapsing USSR), the USSR should experience a relatively soft collapse, after which Moscow would start its rather successful restoration of the Soviet Union.

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Moscow (11 September/ 33.33).

Russia waged a 2-year war of aggression against its neighbor, the Ukraine. Two years on, hundred thousand of deaths, families destroyed, Russia is no where near its 3-day goals of occupation. The Russian army slugs on, mile for mile, killed for killed. Vladimir Putin and his Siloviki continues a red army model. Heavy artillery, wave of men urging forward. The result, mass casualties. Total loss of life, and equipment.

What does Russians do if in trouble. Reversing to its all bag of tricks. Spies and sabotage. Recent Russian sabotage operations across Europe were “reckless”, Moore said, describing Russian intelligence as “having gone a bit feral”. But “in the UK that is not new”, he added, referring to the attempted assassination of Russian double agent Sergei Skripal in Salisbury in 2018.

Asked if Russian intelligence might be conducting similar sabotage operations against the US by abetting illegal migration across the Mexico border, Burns said: “It’s something we are very sharply focused on. Part of that is a function of so many Russian agents [being] kicked out of Europe. So, they are looking for somewhere to go instead.”

But these sometimes child like operations cause blowbacks. Operations and governments getting increasingly more sophisticated in exposing the intelligence operations and their agents.

Bangladesh, Laos, Sri Lanka are countries who are exposed to Russian interests. However, Russians have very little to offer.

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Frankfurt, Paris (18/8 – 62.50)

Ukraine has scored a series of victories in more than a week since launching a lightning offensive into Russian territory. Now the stakes are rising as its forces prepare to defend their gains and Russia begins to regain its footing.

Last week, Ukraine deployed thousands of troops to the Kursk region in western Russia, removing Russian flags from captured towns and taking the initiative from Moscow for the first time in months. On Wednesday, officials in Kyiv said Ukraine would use seized Russian territory as a “buffer zone” to shield its north from Russian strikes.

Panic spread quickly among local Russian residents in the early hours of the assault, despite repeated attempts by authorities to assure them that everything was under control, according to a timeline by Reuters of the first two days of the incursion.

Oleksandr Syrskyi, head of the Ukrainian armed forces, said on Thursday that Kyiv had set up a military commandant’s office in the occupied part of Kursk, suggesting ambitions to dig in. The occupied area exceeds 1,150 sq km, Syrskyi said.

Ukraine’s goals at Kursk include diverting Russian forces from the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, where Russia has been making advances for months and is trying to seize the entire region, said Ukraine’s former defense minister, Andriy Zagorodnyuk. In addition to dealing a reputational blow to President Vladimir Putin, the largest invasion of Russia since World War II has decimated Russian forces, captured bargaining chips, and created a threat to Russia’s flank.

However, a Ukrainian foreign ministry spokesman said that Ukraine was “not interested” in permanently taking Russian land and that the territory was intended only as a bargaining chip in peace talks.

Kyiv-based military analyst Serhiy Zgurets predicted that Ukraine would try to maintain control of the area between the towns of Rylsk, Korenevoye, and Sudzha and the border, which gives Ukraine control of a strip about 20 km (12 miles) wide strip of Russian territory. “This line is not difficult to defend, given there are few roads and a large number of rivers,” he said, as quoted by Reuters.

Ukraine’s forces destroyed eight Russian attack drones and five out of eight missiles, Ukraine’s Air Force chief said on Sunday. As a result of the anti-aircraft combat, anti-aircraft missile troops of the Air Force, mobile firing groups of the Ukrainian Defence Forces, and electronic warfare units shot down 13 air targets in Kyiv, Sumy, and Poltava regions.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed that the operation to strengthen Ukrainian troops in Kursk, Russia, on Saturday (08/17/2024), went according to plan. He referred to Syrsky’s report, which mentioned the strengthening of Ukrainian troops’ positions in the Kursk region and the expansion of the controlled territory steadily. This is also related to the capture of Russian soldiers who will be used for future prisoner exchanges.

“I thank all the soldiers and commanders who are taking Russian soldiers. Thus, the release of our soldiers and civilians held by Russia is getting closer,” Zelensky said.

Meanwhile, to win the war over Ukraine, Russia has increased its propaganda budget in 2024 by 20% from its already massive $1.6 billion. Russian economists have been at the forefront of internet disinformation since at least 2014 when it pioneered the use of bot farms to spread fake news about its invasion of Crimea. The Kremlin is at it again, according to French authorities.

Viginum, the France’s foreign-disinformation watchdog, says it has detected preparations for a large disinformation campaign in France, Germany, Poland, and other European countries. The uncovering of a Russian network of 193 websites designed to spread “deceptive or false” content about the war in Ukraine, comes after a series of destabilization efforts that French authorities have attributed to Moscow.

The network, codenamed “Portal Kombat,” also targeted Germany, Poland, and France, which are thought as particular targets as the European Parliament elections draw nearer.

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After a tip-off by U.S. intelligence officials and only a few hours left Austrian police made swift arrests. The plot seems too bizarre not to be true. Abul Baraa, aka Ahmad Armih, the German based hate-preacher in Berlin radicalized via Tik-tok or Istagram a 19-year Beran A. to swear the oath of alliance to the Islamic State. 

U.S. officials have confirmed their role in identifying a suspected terrorist plot planned for a Taylor Swift concert in Vienna this weekend. During a Friday briefing, White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby said the U.S. provided information to Austrian authorities, who have made several arrests in relation to the alleged foiled attack.

The plan was to take a car, pack it full of explosives and drive it to the Vienna venue of the Ernst Happel stadium at the time packed with 65,000 “Swifties” and detonate the car bomb causing mass casualties. Bomb-making instructions and machetes were also found.

The Heeresnachrichtenamt got the tip-off and passing it on to the newly reconstituted Directorate of State Security and Intelligence (DNS) who swung into action. The DNS who are still fighting the ghosts of scandals took over from the foreign intelligence service. 

Breaking the whatsapp application police worked out the communication traffic, and Beran A. and Luca were arrested in Ternitz, a small village in the south of Vienna. Three other suspects were detained. Beran A., who lived still in the residence of his parents was partly assembling the bomb in the garage of his parents’ residence when police moved in. 

The shock of the planned attack was felt by the “Swifties”, the countless fans of the American pop legend. On the back of the pro-Islamic demonstrations German agitation is manifested. Although current media coverage does not bring the undercurrent of Germany laws will be replaced by Sharia law into the debate terror experts foresee a radicalization of youth. “We will wait and see”, says one expert contacted. “Dissatisfaction is expressed by knowing what we don’t want but being unclear what we want”, says another expert. Roughly 200,000 people were scheduled to attend the sold-out Vienna shows. 

The Alpen republic struggles with online monitoring since the laws of the country do not permit surveillance. Political parties argue that the laws of the country must be changed. 

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Washington/Paris/Berlin (12/8 – 28.57).

Today is the twenty-anniversary of the sinking of the Kursk. A painful experience. A true shocker. All hands are lost, the shortcomings of the Russian system fully exposed. But today is another experience. Kursk, the region. After ceremonial pageantry by the military commander, it is clear the great Red Army was ambushed.

Hoodwinked by the Ukrainians who pulled off a surprise attack, a classic attack which has all the elements of a successful deception operation. Overwhelming strength, speed and first and foremost silence. Deception played a role keeping the Russian pre-occupied. Daily the news a filled of the exchanges between the Ukrainian defenders and the Russian occupation force.

The attention was given to the aging Admiral Kuznetsov long target of the security services of the Ukraine. In an audacious caper matching a Hollywood production the wily chief of the Intelligence Service Kyrylo Budanov the ship was targeted by sabotage teams of the Ukraine. Whereas Budanov’s boys of misfits drawn the attention of the Russians away from the home front the planning for the attack was carried out.

Then the surprise attack came.

The Ukrainian defenders breaking through the lines of Russian occupation forces, the Russians fumbled, reserves were rushed to the front but to no prevail. Ambushes were set up, forward observers guided cluster ammunition against convoys driving Russian occupation forces into retreat.

Troves of occupation forces are surrendering to the Ukrainian defenders. Social media is full of videos Russian occupation forces surrendering. Drones are used to instruct the surrender.

Surrender leaflets are circulating on the internet. Estimates state approximately 3,000 prisoners were taken.

Inside the liberated towns the situation is desperate, residents feel abandoned, many shops are looted by the Russian occupiers and residents feel abandoned. Vladimir Putin holding his security briefing annoyed with the presenter but stated the area will be liberated.

Ukraine’s relentless push into Russian territory, particularly in the Kursk region, has forced Moscow to employ extreme measures. Ukrainian forces have made significant inroads into the Kursk region, causing significant distress within the Russian military.

Ukrainian troops managed to penetrate Russian positions by over 30 kilometers, creating significant disruption among Russian forces.

The chaos led to varied responses from Russian units—some offered staunch resistance while others either deserted or surrendered. Among the latter were crews operating sophisticated T-80BWM tanks.

Russia has lost at least 156 T-80BWM tanks, a figure confirmed by video and photographic evidence collected by Oryxspioenkop. The T-80BWM’s modern features include an upgraded two-layer reactive Armor called Relikt, which provides enhanced protection against advanced tandem warhead munitions and FPV drones.

A unique characteristic of the T-80BWM is its gas turbine engine, offering superior responsiveness compared to traditional diesel engines. This feature has earned it the nickname “flying tank” in Russia due to its rapid acceleration and high performance.

The Russian army has reportedly begun withdrawing convoys, suffering substantial losses in both equipment and personnel. At least 16,000 have been evacuated.

It is clear from the language that the Russian occupying force will strike back. Never since 1941 has Russian territory occupied. And the outcome is unclear for the moment.

During the meeting, Putin reiterated his stance against engaging in dialogue with Ukraine, citing the ongoing attacks on civilian populations.

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He noted that the “first and only time” NATO’s Article 5 was invoked was after the September 11, 2001 attacks on the US. Article 5 sets out that an attack on one member of the NATO military alliance is an attack on all.

“NATO stood by us,” he says. “We’re going to stand by NATO”.

Looking forward, Austin said the US will “not be dragged into Putin’s war of choice”, although it will continue to stand by Ukraine and strengthen the NATO alliance.

“NATO is now larger than ever,” he adds. “Putin’s war is not the result of NATO enlargement. Putin’s war is the cause of NATO enlargement.”

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