In October 2024, China’s first comprehensive regulation to tighten state control over the critical sector of rare earth resources took effect. Coming amid the global transition towards clean energy, the regulation demonstrates China’s increased leverage of its rare earth monopoly to outpace its geopolitical rivals like the United States, which remains far behind China in this sector. Intensified competition for rare earth elements risks overshadowing collaborative efforts to develop clean technology.

Mountain Pass, owned by MP Materials, is the only large-scale rare earth mining and processing facility in North America. Image from Wikimedia Commons.

In the race to develop clean technology, major polluting countries like the United States and China compete to lead in producing renewable energy products, striving to achieve environmental goals while enhancing national competitiveness. Rare earth elements (REE) — a group of 17 soft, heavy chemical elements — are major components for clean technologies like wind turbines, electric vehicles, and solar panels. The International Energy Agency projects that demand for REE could rise to 3–7 times current levels by 2040. Consequently, Western powers, such as the United States and the European Union, are under increasing pressure to secure essential REE for clean technologies needed to transition to a low-carbon economy. However, limited access to REE could hinder their ability to meet these goals.

China’s Monopoly in the Rare Earth Sector

Despite US dominance in rare earth mining from the 1960s to 1980s, environmental movements and regulatory pressures eventually led companies to relocate to China or close the US mines. Subsequently, China’s low costs, fuelled by state subsidies and lax environmental standards, allowed it to surpass the United States in the rare earth industry. Currently, China dominates the rare earth supply chain, controlling approximately 60 per cent of global mining operations, over 85 per cent of processing capacity, and more than 90 percent of permanent magnet production.

Trade frictions between China and the United States, the world’s two largest greenhouse gas emitters, are particularly hindering progress in the clean energy transition. In September 2024, the United States raised tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles to 100 per cent and significantly increased tariffs on other Chinese green technologies, including solar products. However, heavy reliance on China for the rare earths needed for the United States to independently produce these technologies has raised concerns that this dependency could become a significant vulnerability in the escalating tech war.

Global reserves of rare earths outside China include 19 per cent in Vietnam, 18 per cent in Brazil, 6 per cent in India, and 4 per cent in Australia. However, while alternative sources exist among these countries that the United States or its allies are friendly with, scaling up production to meet increasing demand remains a substantial challenge. For instance, China’s exceptional processing capacity of 220,000 tonnes per year — five times the combined capacity of the rest of the world — would take other countries years to match.

China’s Leverage of Rare Earth Elements

China is increasingly weaponising its dominance in REE to impose costs on its rivals in trade disputes. The resulting market dynamics are seen as producing externalities that adversely affect foreign clean technology businesses dependent on Chinese rare earth exports, potentially slowing the transition to renewable energy.

In October 2024, China’s first comprehensive regulation on rare earth resources took effect. As illegal mining and smelting have persisted in the country, the regulations introduce stringent rules governing the mining, refining and separation, metal smelting, integrated utilisation, product distribution, import and export of rare earths. Companies violating the regulations may face fines of 5–10 times their illegal gains. Consequently, rare earth supplies are expected to tighten, and prices of REE are expected to increase.

The regulation is seen as a move that could undermine the competitiveness of foreign clean technology products reliant on China-supplied rare earths as business would pass these higher costs on to their customers. Ultimately, the adoption of clean technologies like wind turbines and electric vehicles in countries like the United States could be slowed.

Earlier, in June 2024, Beijing declared rare earth resources to be state-owned and placed the industry under government oversight, ensuring product traceability. While framed as securing national and industrial interests, the move is widely seen as ensuring leverage in the ongoing trade dispute between the United States and China.

The new regulation extends China’s previous leverage over its control of the entire rare earth supply chain. In December 2023, China banned the export of technology for manufacturing rare earth magnets, which are essential components in many clean energy technologies, such as wind turbines. Additionally, in January 2022, Beijing banned foreign direct investment in rare earth mining projects. The ban was described as having “injected even more urgency” into Western efforts to diversify their mineral supply chains away from China.

Furthermore, the Chinese government is reportedly planning to offer direct grants and low-interest loans to its rare earth industry. Such a move would lower operating costs and allow Chinese companies to thrive in market conditions that are challenging to others, thereby dominating global processing capacity.

Obstacles to US Efforts to Reduce Dependence on China

China’s geopolitical rivals view Beijing’s rare earth monopoly as “a risk to national security” because of their strong dependence on Chinese exports.

As a challenger of China in the competition for developing clean technology, the United States is actively investing in various stages within the REE supply chain to reduce its reliance on China. Through its Manufacturing Capability Expansion and Investment Program, the US Defense Department (DOD) has launched a five-year strategy to establish a full domestic rare earth supply chain, covering sourcing, separation, processing, metallisation, alloying and magnet manufacturing. Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths, the only commercial-scale source of separated rare earths outside of China, received over US$258 million from the DOD to establish a production facility in Texas. Additionally, the DOD awarded US$45 million to MP Materials, which claims to be the “only scaled producer of rare earth materials in the Western Hemisphere”, to enhance domestic light and heavy rare earth processing capacity.

However, such efforts would not result in immediate challenges to China. The United States still lacks a complete domestic value chain from mining to magnet production. One of the primary reasons is that mining projects in the United States often have long lead times, with records indicating it takes around 16 years to complete permits and construction for production to begin.

The United States has also launched the Minerals Security Partnership (MSP) with key countries like Australia, which ranks just behind China in “exploration investment, reserves, and capital expenditure”; India, known for its manufacturing capabilities; and Japan, which plays a major role in financing. This partnership aims to address supply chain vulnerabilities in essential minerals like REE.

Nevertheless, as of 2024, MSP has seen minimal investment and lacks technological expertise, raising doubts about the partnership’s capacity to be a feasible alternative to China. Additionally, environmental concerns could be a significant hurdle to developing the partner countries’ rare earth mining or production capability. Each ton of rare earth produced generates 13 kilograms of dust, 9,600–12,000 cubic metres of waste gas, 75 cubic metres of wastewater, and one ton of radioactive residue, all of which have harmful health effects. Notably, Mountain Pass, the only large-scale rare earth mine and separation facility in North America, closed in 2002 after a toxic waste spill and remained shut for years. US mining companies are also struggling to recruit skilled workers, slowing down the US ambition to boost its domestic production capability.

Conclusion

Geopolitical tensions over resources and technology are hampering the clean energy transition. Energy transition is not intended to be a zero-sum game as all can benefit from clean energy products in a free trade situation, and therefore from reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions. However, growing supply chain fragmentation increasingly sees major economies prioritising supply security through the lens of national self-interest. Additionally, the intensified drive for rare earth extraction could further environmental degradation, thereby undermining global efforts to achieve net-zero carbon emissions.

Although it is unlikely that other countries will surpass China in rare earth production in the foreseeable future, a promising pathway to create a less polarised geopolitical landscape around REE and to reduce pollution is emerging in the form of recycling this resource from obsolete equipment.

From an economic perspective, recycling processes can be implemented more rapidly than the development of new mines, which typically requires decades for them to become commercially viable. From an environmentally friendly perspective, recycling reduces the need for new rare earth mining, thereby decreasing both the environmental and energy footprints associated with extraction and processing.

China’s strategy of leveraging its rare earth monopoly is highly effective in the short term but it may not retain the same level of influence over the long term. By 2050, reuse and recycling strategies could meet 30–40 per cent of rare earth mineral demand in the United States, China, and Europe. Although Beijing is likely to maintain its monopoly in the rare earth supply chain, increased circularity could gradually reduce other countries’ dependence on China, ultimately diminishing its geopolitical leverage over this critical resource.

Hu Xinyue is a Senior Analyst in the China Programme at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS), S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS).

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The first use of drone-based lidar in Central Asia has enabled archaeologists to uncover details of two newly discovered medieval trade cities high in the mountains of Uzbekistan.

The team used this cutting-edge technology to map the archaeological scale and layout of the cities, which are among the largest ever documented in the mountainous parts of the Silk Road, a broad network of ancient trade routes that connected Europe and Eastern Asia.

The research, led by Michael Frachetti, professor of archaeology in Arts & Sciences at Washington University in St. Louis, and Farhod Maksudov, director of the National Center of Archaeology in Uzbekistan, was recently published in Nature.

High-Resolution Insights into Ancient Urbanism

The drone-lidar scans provided remarkably detailed views of the plazas, fortifications, roads, and habitations that shaped the lives and economies of highland communities, traders, and travelers from the sixth through 11th centuries in Central Asia. The two cities are located in rugged terrain 2,000 to 2,200 meters above sea level (roughly comparable to Machu Picchu in Peru), making them unusual examples of thriving mountain urbanism.

Unveiling the Complexities of Mountain Urbanism

The smaller city, today called Tashbulak, covered about 12 hectares, while the larger city of Tugunbulak reached 120 hectares, “making it one of the largest regional cities of its time,” Frachetti said.

“These would have been important urban hubs in central Asia, especially as you moved out of lowland oases and into more challenging high-altitude settings,” he said. “While typically seen as barriers to Silk Road trade and movement, the mountains actually were host to major centers for interaction. Animals, ores, and other precious resources likely drove their prosperity.”

“This site had an elaborate urban structure with specific material culture that greatly varied from the lowland sedentary culture,” Maksudov said. “It’s clear that the people inhabiting Tugunbulak for more than a thousand years ago were nomadic pastoralists who maintained their own distinct, independent culture and political economy.”

Technological Advancements in Archaeological Exploration

Lidar technology is commonly used to map archaeological landscapes blocked by dense vegetation, but it has additional value where vegetation is sparse, such as the mountains of Uzbekistan. “Drone operation is strictly regulated in Uzbekistan, so this discovery is also thanks to the political support and permissions we received through local partners and government,” Frachetti said.

The centimeter-level scans allowed for advanced computer analysis of the ancient archaeological surfaces, providing an unprecedented view of the cities’ architecture and organization. “These are some of the highest-resolution lidar images of archeological sites ever published,” Frachetti said. “They were made possible, in part, because of the unique erosion dynamics in this mountain setting.”

A Blend of Modern Tech and Ancient Discovery

Frachetti, Maksudov, and their team first discovered the highland cities using predictive computer models and old-fashioned foot surveys between 2011 and 2015, tracing presumed routes of the Silk Road in southeastern Uzbekistan. The project took years to materialize. The extra time ultimately proved to be a blessing, allowing the researchers to make the most of the latest advances in drone-based lidar. “The final high-res maps were a composite of more than 17 drone flights over three weeks,” Frachetti said. “It would have taken us a decade to map such large sites manually.”

Frachetti and graduate students in his Spatial Analysis, Interpretation, and Exploration (SAIE) Lab compiled the drone-lidar data into 3D models, which were passed to Tao Ju, a professor of computer science and engineering, and Xiaoyi Liu, an undergraduate student, both at the McKelvey School of Engineering at WashU. Ju and Liu applied computational algorithms to analyze the archaeological surfaces and auto-trace millions of lines to predict likely architectural alignments. The final step was to match the digital output with comparable architectural cases, revealing a huge ancient city otherwise invisible to the naked eye. “The project reflects a truly interdisciplinary effort,” Ju said. “The analysis techniques have potential applications in many domains that utilize lidar scans.”

Future Excavations and Implications

Both cities warrant much closer inspection, Frachetti said. Preliminary digging at one of the fortified structures at Tugunbulak suggests that the fortress — a building protected by three-meter-thick rammed earth walls — might have been a factory where local metalsmiths turned rich deposits of iron ore into steel. Such industry would have been a key feature of the city and its economy.

It’s already clear that Tashbulak and Tugunbulak weren’t just remote outposts or rest stops. “The Silk Road wasn’t just about the endpoints of China and the West,” Frachetti said. “Major political forces were at play in Central Asia. The complex heart of the network was also a driver of innovation.”

Frachetti hopes to use the same combination of on-the-ground detective work and drone-based lidar to get pictures of other high-altitude settlements along the Silk Road and beyond. “We could really change the map of urban development in medieval Asia,” he said.

Reference: “Large-scale medieval urbanism traced by UAV–lidar in highland Central Asia” by Michael D. Frachetti, Jack Berner, Xiaoyi Liu, Edward R. Henry, Farhod Maksudov and Tao Ju, 23 October 2024, Nature.
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-08086-5

The expedition was supported by the National Geographic Society.

Source

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“The ongoing persecution and human rights violations against the Pamiri minority in Tajikistan reached an alarming scale years ago. But there is almost no one to ring the alarm bell. The Tajikistani authorities stifle virtually all information from the region, while the international community has largely overlooked this serious human rights crisis. It demands immediate attention and action from the international community to safeguard the rights and dignity of the Pamiri people,” said Marie Struthers, Amnesty International’s Director for Eastern Europe and Central Asia. 

The ongoing persecution and human rights violations against the Pamiri minority in Tajikistan reached an alarming scale years ago. But there is almost no one to ring the alarm bell

Marie Struthers, Amnesty International’s Director for Eastern Europe and Central Asia

Tajikistan: Reprisals against Pamiri minority, suppression of local identity, clampdown on all dissent highlights the violations of economic, social and cultural rights resulting from: the crackdown on Pamiri languages, cultural practices, and identities; the heavy presence of security forces from other regions of Tajikistan; violent repression of protest and widespread arbitrary detention; and socioeconomic marginalization faced by the Pamiri Ismaili community in Gorno-Badakhshan. 

Discrimination and securitization 

The central authorities have promoted a culture of prejudice against Pamiris. A state-sponsored narrative depicts them negatively, particularly Ismailis, leading to widespread discrimination. This policy manifests in repressive practices, including suppressing the use of Pamiri languages in media, education, and public life, excluding Pamiris from influential positions within the state administration and security apparatus, and extortion and destruction of local employment opportunities and Pamiri businesses. 

The heavy presence of security forces from other parts of Tajikistan reflects the authorities’ contempt for the Gorno-Badakhshan population. “The word ‘Pamiri’ [for the security forces] means […] separatist, oppositionist, main enemy,” said one of the interviewees. 

The presence of security agencies, including the Ministry of Internal Affairs (MIA) and the State Committee for National Security (SCNS), has significantly increased in GBAO. Security forces have set up armed cordons on roads and in city squares, including the capital city of GBAO, Khorugh, patrolled by heavily armed police and military. “The security forces in Khorugh behave like wolves looking after sheep. ‘You should not walk like this; you should not laugh!’” said one of the interviewees. 

Security operations in GBAO include surveillance, intimidation, and the excessive use of force — often justified as combating terrorism and organized crime — accompanied by arbitrary arrests and prosecutions of local informal leaders and ordinary Pamiris, despite a lack of credible evidence.  

“The heavy-handed securitization in Gorno-Badakhshan is beyond any scrutiny. The local population is perceived as hostile by the central government, and people are harassed and discriminated against on a daily basis,” said Marie Struthers. 

The heavy-handed securitization in Gorno-Badakhshan is beyond any scrutiny. The local population is perceived as hostile by the central government, and people are harassed and discriminated against on a daily basis

Marie Struthers, Amnesty International’s Director for Eastern Europe and Central Asia

2021-2022 crackdown and its aftermath 

Mounting tensions erupted after the killing of prominent Pamiri figure Gulbiddin Ziyobekov in November 2021. Officially described as the result of a shootout with law enforcement, evidence points to an unlawful killing of an unarmed man, which may amount to an extrajudicial execution. In response to a four-day protest in Khorugh, security forces used firearms against a crowd that had been peaceful until that point, killing two protesters and allegedly injuring around a dozen.  

“We escorted the women away […] to a safer location. At that time, a bullet hit me. They were shooting from the entrance of the building, wearing uniforms. Some of them were standing directly in the entrance, some of them were on the second or third floor,” said one protester, describing the indiscriminate use of lethal force by law enforcement officials. 

After false promises to effectively investigate, the authorities instead persecuted informal community leaders, harassed civil society, and intimidated and prosecuted ordinary Pamiris.  

A second outbreak of violence occurred in May 2022 when authorities violently dispersed peaceful protests in Khorugh and Rushan, resulting in the deaths of dozens of Pamiris, including informal leader Mamadbokir Mamadbokirov, shot by unidentified gunmen in a pickup — a likely extrajudicial execution. According to independent reports, 24 civilians died, some during the crackdown and some in alleged retaliatory unlawful killings.  

A subsequent crackdown on civil society followed with the arbitrary detention of more than 200 human rights defenders, dissenters, and influential figures such as journalist and activist Ulfatkhonim Mamadshoeva and lawyers Faromuz Irgashev and Manuchehr Kholiknazarov. In December 2023, they received 21, 29 and 15-year sentences respectively, in secret trials, with the details of the charges made public only six months later.  

Arbitrary detentions and torture 

The Tajikistani authorities routinely arbitrarily detain, allegedly torture, and engage in other ill-treatment of Pamiris, with reports of coerced confessions and fabricated charges of crimes against “public safety,” “fundamentals of the constitutional order” or “order of administration.” Legal proceedings lack transparency and due process, with many trials lasting only a few days. During the 2021-2022 crackdown, reports of torture and other ill-treatment were common.  

One of the detainees in the aftermath of the May 2022 protests said he was deprived of sleep for two days, beaten with fists and batons and hit on the head with a thick book. 

“When they asked and I did not answer, they wrapped wet tissues around my fingers, then [fixed it with] tape. They put clips and switched something on. The [electric] current was strong. They did it with different fingers. They did it twice every day, four times in all,” he said. 

The international community must urgently raise concerns about the human rights violations faced by Pamiris with the Tajikistani authorities

Marie Struthers, Amnesty International’s Director for Eastern Europe and Central Asia

“After the 2021-2022 protests in Gorno-Badakhshan, the systemic discrimination against the Pamiri community has become ever more entrenched, resulting in fear, harassment and violation of human rights. The international community must urgently raise concerns about the human rights violations faced by Pamiris with the Tajikistani authorities, in all possible fora not the least international fora, stand in solidarity with the Pamiri people, give protection to those who seek it abroad, and take decisive action to oppose this vicious system in Tajikistan,” said Marie Struthers. 

Source

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Once more Tajikistan comes on the radar screen. Who will be the next president of Tajikistan? How is the ban on the hijab helping the deradicalization of Tajik society? What is the role of the Chinese and Russian influence? And how is the relationship with the European Union coming along? 

Every year we face a plethora of Tajik issues, for example corruption and drug usage involving officials, now the ban on face veils, or the newest version a ban on black clothes. The desecration of the grave of one of leaders and the promotions of killer squad of the ministry of interiors. 

Despite the ICC dispatches a fact-finding mission on Tajikistan and reports back we need to ask the question what has changed, if anything? So far very little, to near nothing. Observers of the Tajik issue reports an uptick of Chinese involvement, or Russian press gang related issues to force Tajiks to army service in the Ukraine. 

The German foreign ministry is surprisingly mum about the situation in Tajikistan. The trust level is always low. Maybe the new “Iron Lady” will bring changes to the foreign relations debacle with Tajikistan. It’s about time. 

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Sanjiva Weerawarana is a Sri Lankan success story. He founded enterprise software firm WSO2 in 2005, got it close to $100 million in ARR as its CEO, then sold it to private equity firm EQT for $600 million in May.

He sometimes drives for Uber, too.

Sri Lanka isn’t renowned for its startup ecosystem, but one company has been something of an outlier in the South Asian island nation these past two decades. WSO2, an open source enterprise software provider with customers such as Samsung, Axa, and AT&T, recently agreed to be acquired by private equity giant EQT, at a valuation TechCrunch reported at the time to be north of $600 million. (We can now confirm that the valuation was in fact exactly $600 million.)

The transaction, which remains subject to regulatory approvals, means that EQT will become WSO2’s sole owner, procuring all outstanding shares, including those of WSO2’s investors and current and ex-WSO2 employees.

This liquidity event could also create significant wealth among those inclined to start their own ventures, given that 30% of the proceeds will be going to those employees.

“This shows that equity is important — one of the things that we have insisted on from day one is that every employee has been a shareholder,” WSO2 co-founder and CEO Sanjiva Weerawarana told TechCrunch in an interview. “That’s very important, and it’s a concept that has not been understood here before, because there haven’t been companies that exited and gave any amount of meaningful financial return. Seeing is believing, right? Talk is cheap.”

Thriving through war and unrest

Founded out of the Sri Lankan capital, Colombo, in 2005, WSO2 is a middleware stack constituting tools such as API management, similar to Apigee (Google acquired for $625 million), and identity and access management (IAM), along the lines of $15 billion publicly traded Okta.

The main driving force behind this has been Weerawarana, a computer scientist and key figure in the open source community over the past 25 years, both as a member of the Apache Software Foundation and more recently as the creator of Ballerina, a cloud-native general-purpose programming language for integrating distributed systems.

Prior to WSO2, Weerawarana worked within IBM’s research and development team in the U.S., where he helped develop web service specifications such as WSDL and BPEL. And it was there that the seed for WSO2 was sown.

“I actually tried inside IBM to build a new kind of middleware stack, but IBM wasn’t interested,” Weerawarana said. “So the only option was either start a company or give up on the idea.”

Weerawarana spawned WSO2 in August 2005 alongside two co-founders: Davanum Srinivas, who left after two years, and Weerawarana’s former IBM colleague Paul Fremantle, who would go on to serve as CTO until stepping down in 2015 (he later rejoined and then left again, but remains an advisor today).

Notably, WSO2’s center of gravity has remained in Sri Lanka, despite a long-standing civil war and external pressure to relocate to the U.S., where Weerawarana had lived previously for 16 years.

“I came back [to Sri Lanka] in 2001, and two weeks before I landed in Colombo, the airport was attacked by a terrorist group — there were still pieces of planes on the ground,” he said. “In 2005, the war was still going on. Sri Lanka as a country has not been able to maintain a consistent calm environment for us, but that’s okay.”

Today, 80% of WSO2’s 780 employees are in Sri Lanka, with the remainder spread across a smattering of hubs in the U.S., Europe, and Asia.

“I wanted to show we could build a product-oriented tech company from Sri Lanka,” Weerawarana continued. “There had never been a company like this, and at that time there wasn’t even a company out of India like this. Indian companies were very services-oriented, as were Sri Lankan companies. But one of the big prices [for staying in Sri Lanka] was that at pretty much every funding round, the majority of investors would ask when I was moving back [to the U.S.]. And my answer was always the same: ‘I’m not moving back.’”

Investors weren’t the only ones who pressured WSO2 to move: Customers and competitors have also used its location against it at various junctures.

“Some of our competitors fought against us, saying, ‘Do you know where they are located?’ and that becomes a challenge,” Weerawarana said. “Then we’ve had customers saying, ‘You’re located way over there. Why are you charging us these prices?’”

On the flip side, WSO2’s geographic setting gave it the pick of technical talent, owning mostly to the fact that it was a product-based business in a sea of services.

“We’ve never had a problem with engineering and technical talent. We’ve been able to hire the best people in Sri Lanka for the last 19 years,” Weerawarana said. “If you are a creative engineer, would you rather work for a services company, or be in a role where you could be creative and work on top-of-the-line technology?”

Intel inside

After WSO2 raised a small round of angel funding in 2005, Intel’s VC arm emerged as its earliest backer, investing in 2006 and through several follow-on rounds in subsequent years.

Intel Capital’s initial $2 million cash injection was critical to WSO2’s early growth and was the result of fortuitous timing. Pradeep Tagare was a senior investment manager at Intel Capital at that time and met Weerawarana through their associations with the Apache Software Foundation. Tagare was looking to invest in an open source startup to complement a duo of other open source investments it had made — one into Java-centric application server company JBoss (which Red Hat later acquired for $350 million) and another into database company MySQL (which Sun later snapped up for $1 billion).

“We were looking at a bunch of open source investments as a strategic initiative for Intel, essentially to build an alternate stack on Intel hardware,” Tagare explained to TechCrunch. “We had invested in JBoss, and we invested in MySQL. So we were now looking for an open source middleware company, and WSO2 fit the bill exactly.”

Tagare’s thesis was that countries situated in Asia would not only stand to benefit from the open source movement, but would also be likely to contribute a lot. Open source software development is naturally distributed, opening up the coding and collaboration process to those who didn’t work at the Big Tech companies of those times.

“Now they could contribute — before, it was all really controlled by the Microsofts and the Oracles of the world,” Tagare said. “Its location wasn’t necessarily a requirement, but being based in Asia just made WSO2 even more interesting.”

Much has changed in the 20 years since WSO2 arrived on the scene. With the advent of cloud computing and microservices — software built from smaller, loosely connected components that can be developed and maintained independently and that conveniently rely on APIs — WSO2 has been well-positioned as enterprises transition from legacy monolithic applications.

Now with the AI revolution in full swing, WSO2 is also set to capitalize given that APIs and IAM are key components of the AI stack — from integrations through authentication and beyond. Moreover, WSO2 is integrating AI into its own products, recently debuting a new API manager that allows developers to integrate an AI-powered chatbot into their APIs to allow non-coders to test APIs using natural language.

According to Crunchbase data, WSO2 raised $133 million over the years. However, Weerawarana clarified that only $70 million was primary capital. Other rounds, like the $93 million Series E round two years ago led by Goldman Sachs, consisted of equity and debt.

However the funding is sliced and diced, there’s no ignoring the fact that WSO2 was a startup dinosaur by the time EQT came calling. After all, most successful VC-backed companies reach an exit within 10 years.

So what gives?

“We’ve had multiple people wanting to buy our company through the years, but I resisted because I always wanted to build a company that would reach an IPO — an independent business, basically,” Weerawarana said.

That all changed in May, when WSO2 accepted an offer from EQT Private Capital Asia (formerly Baring Private Equity Asia), a private equity firm EQT acquired in 2022 for more than $7 billion. The difference this time was simple: One of WSO2’s controlling shareholders “wanted to get liquidity,” according to Weerawarana.

“Because they had more than 50%, it becomes a control transaction,” he said.

That shareholder was San Francisco-based Toba Capital, a VC firm set up by Vinny Smith in 2012 after he sold Quest Software to Dell for more than $2 billion. Quest had previously invested in WSO2, equity that transferred to Dell through that acquisition — but Toba bought that stock back from Dell and went on to make further investments in WSO2, including buying Intel Capital’s portion. Toba Capital partner Tyler Jewell also replaced Weerawarana as CEO for a two-year period, with Weerawarana returning to the hot seat in 2020.

Weerawarana says the company has been cash-flow positive since 2017 and profitable “since around 2018,” but it hasn’t had the luxury of vast pools of capital that would allow it to look at “multiple year strategies.” This is something it will be able to do under EQT, one of the world’s biggest private equity firms.

Indeed, WSO2 says it will hit $100 million in annual recurring revenue (ARR) by Q3 this year, which is one of the key reasons EQT came calling.

“WSO2 really has all the ingredients we look for in a software business,” EQT partner and global co-head of services Hari Gopalakrishnan told TechCrunch. “Deep and long-lasting enterprise client relationships, successful product-led-growth, technically robust products, and prudent financial management. Pick a strength, WSO2 probably has it.”

From the outside, selling to private equity might not seem like the dream outcome for a founder with ambitions to go public and who values his company’s independence. But Weerawarana insists that this outcome will better enable WSO2 to do just that.

“I started the company to make something that lasts. One of the reasons we didn’t sell it previously is that we knew that would be the end of it,” he said. “EQT doesn’t have any other businesses in this domain, they’re trying to build around WSO2, not merge it with something else. Their goal is to build the company for five years, which aligns with what I wanted, and gives us five years to get to an IPO.”

Driving force

While running WSO2 is a time-consuming endeavor on its own, Weerawarana keeps busy with other initiatives such as a philanthropic effort called the Avinya Foundation, which he established in 2022 to support economically disadvantaged children via vocational education programs.

In 2017, Weerawarana also started driving for Uber, a move he says was designed to make it more socially acceptable in Sri Lanka to work in such jobs. If a successful businessman like him can do it, then anyone can.

“I would be coming home from work and I would just pick somebody up along the way,” he said. “The main point I was trying to get across was that somebody who does a driving job is no different to somebody who does any other job — they’re just offering a service and you pay for it. We have this mindset here that people who do certain kinds of jobs are not the same as other kinds of people. And breaking that is very important — doing Uber-driving is part of it. The Avinya Foundation is also focused on that problem, trying to support all our skilled workers, such as tradespeople.”

The pandemic, among other global events, put a temporary halt on Weerawarana’s Uber driving exploits; because people were doing it for survival, he didn’t want to take money from people who needed it.

“I will do it again — things are getting much better,” he said. “Tourism is almost back to normal, so the demand will be there, and it might make sense for me to drive. But I don’t want to take any business from somebody else.”

Source

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The new dress code — the second of its kind in six years — is expected to be made public in the coming days, and a special event is reportedly being planned for the capital, Dushanbe, in August to showcase compliant clothes.

Sulaimon Davlatzoda, the head of the state Committee for Religious Affairs and the Regulation of Traditions, told a press briefing in the capital this week that “a joint task force of the Culture Ministry, the Women’s Committee, and the Religious Affairs Committee is working together to determine what clothes are most compatible with our national values and traditions.”

The new dress code comes after Tajikistan officially issued a ban in June on “clothes alien to Tajik culture,” a term widely used by officials to describe Islamic dress, which they treat as an outward sign of potential religious extremism.

Earlier this week, the Central Asian country’s state-backed Islamic Council of Ulema issued a fatwa — a religious edict — against “black clothes” as well as “tight-fitting and see-through” garments for women. In Tajikistan, the term “black clothes” tends to be a euphemism for the Islamic hijab.

The July 26 fatwa proclaimed that the color of black is not compatible with “our national and geographical characteristics.”

Echoing the government’s long-standing position on female clothing, the fatwa also promoted a national costume for Tajik women, which consists of a dress, trousers, and a kerchief.

The fatwa explained that the three-piece was fully in line with the Islamic practice mandating a woman cover her entire body, with the exception of her face, hands, and feet.

‘We Got The Message’

Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, who has been in power for more than 30 years, has been criticized by rights groups for clamping down on independent media, political pluralism, and also religious freedom. Religious beliefs and practices that deviate from the state-mandated norm are often seen by the authorities as a threat to Tajikistan’s stability and security.

Tajiks, especially those who wear the hijab, say they believe that the June hijab ban, the latest fatwa, and the upcoming guidelines on women’s clothing are a “needless, excessive step.”

“Black was already banned,” said Munisa, a nurse in a state hospital in a northern city who didn’t want to give her full name. She was referring to the state Religious Committee’s 2017 statement that prohibited wearing black at funerals.

Instead, the statement urged Tajik women to stick to the local tradition of wearing blue to mourn their dead.

“Nothing is new about the hijab ban, either. It’s been [effectively] in place for a decade at least,” Munisa said.

“We got the message already. There’s no need to keep repeating it, with new laws,” the 40-year-old nurse said.

Like many Tajiks, Munisa dismisses the fatwa against tight and see-through dresses as a smokescreen, saying the real target is Islamic dress, which the government considers “alien” and a threat to the secular government. For example, previous bans on miniskirts and plunging necklines have never been enforced.

In predominantly Muslim Tajikistan, a country of nearly 10 million people, the authorities’ campaign against the Islamic head scarf began in 2007 when the Education Ministry prohibited the hijab — and miniskirts — at schools and universities.

The ban eventually expanded to workplaces, and officials and police conducted raids to ensure its compliance.

Many hijab-wearing women faced a tough choice between their religious and cultural beliefs and their careers. Some quit their jobs or studies, while others — like Munisa — swapped their Islamic head scarf for the traditional kerchief.

Tajik men have also fallen afoul of government edicts in the past, with the authorities seeing them as suspect because of their long or bushy beards.

In 2015, a regional police chief in the southern Khatlon Province announced that nearly 13,000 men “with long and unkempt beards” were rounded up in the streets and bazaars over the course of the year and had their beards “brought to order.”

A high-ranking government official warned Tajik bloggers in 2023 that promoting beards might be interpreted as “an expression of solidarity with terrorist groups” and presents “a threat to national security.”

In 2018, the Culture Ministry published The Guidebook To Recommended Outfits In Tajikistan, which outlines acceptable designs, colors, and fabrics for clothing.

While the guidebook encouraged women to wear the Tajik national three-piece costume, for the office it suggested that they wear Western-style clothes, albeit with more modest necklines and hemlines.

It is not clear if the upcoming dress code will supersede the previous guideline.

New Crackdown

Some Dushanbe residents have complained that the recent official ban on “alien” clothes has prompted the authorities to crack down.

In Dushanbe, a group of hijab-wearing women were rounded up on May 22 by law enforcement officers and representatives of the local women’s affairs office and taken to the police station.

One of the women later told RFE/RL’s Tajik Service that their fingerprints and mugshots were taken and they were made to promise not to wear “alien” clothes ever again, before being released the same day.

On May 23, police in the capital’s Shohmansur district briefly detained 13 men with bushy beards and demanded that they shave. Police warned them they “will be arrested if caught again with long beards,” one of the men told RFE/RL.

Source

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Paris/Jakarta (24/7 – 28.57).   “Coffee is the common man’s gold, and like gold, it brings to every person the feeling of luxury and nobility.” – Sheik-Abd-al-Kadir

A friend recently opened a coffee shop is called after its owner, Muteeya. Though modest, it embodies the burgeoning coffee culture found in Paris, London, the US, and now Jakarta. The coffee is steaming hot, and soft tunes fill the air.

Outside, rain pounds against the window, streaking down and forming small puddles on the street. As I gaze through the glass blurred by water, I take a sip of my warm coffee, savouring its rich flavour, and let my thoughts drift away.

Nestled away in the back corner behind the entrance lobby the coffee shop enjoys a quiet life of its own.

It seems that the old saying hold true. “Coffee is the answer to all problems.” Brown with milk and smelling the shop with a fresh pastry all troubles wait to be dealt later.

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According to the Tajik MFA information department, the parties discussed the prospects for the expansion of cooperation between the countries of Central Asia and Italy in the political, economic, trade, water and energy, environmental protection, transport, tourism and educational sectors.

They reportedly also exchanged views on a number of regional and international issues being of mutual interest, including current threats and challenges, the situation in Afghanistan and the Middle East.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of Italy says Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister also Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation Antonio Tajani welcomed the Foreign Ministers of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan to Villa Madama in Rome on March 29 for the 3rd Italy-Central Asia Ministerial Meeting.

“Italy views with great interest the opportunities presented to Italian companies in Central Asia: establishing a strategic partnership with Central Asian countries and strengthening economic and industrial cooperation in the fields of water resources, the environment, and higher education is a priority. For this reason, over 30 of the most important Italian companies and trade associations will attend today’s meeting,” commented Mr. Antonio Tajani

The Italian Government has reportedly promoted the intensification of relations with countries in the region, as demonstrated by the business forums organized with Uzbekistan (in June 2023), Kazakhstan (in January this year) and Tajikistan (last April).

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of Italy says these initiatives are in line with the growth diplomacy action carried out by the Ministry and its diplomatic network on the initiative of Minister Tajani.  Business activities with other states in the region are currently being planned. Particular attention is being paid to regional projects in the fields of infrastructure, agriculture, machinery and energy involving all the countries of Central Asia.

Meanwhile, the Tajik MFA information department says that day prior to this meeting, Tajik representatives participated in separate thematic sessions were held on issues of water and energy, transport and education.

Source: Asia Plus

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Xi’s strategy is as meticulous as it is bold. He has purged opposition within his ranks, securing a loyal cadre committed to his vision of Chinese supremacy on the world stage. His deft handling of relationships with giants like the US, India, Japan, and Russia has redefined traditional alliances and rivalries. For those watching, there’s a palpable sense of urgency – a recognition that we are witnessing the dawn of a new global order where China’s influence is inescapable and undeniable.

Meanwhile, the stage is set in India for a political showdown as the Lok Sabha Elections close. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is poised to secure a third consecutive term with his charisma (for his critics – an engineered charisma) and steadfast leadership. Despite murmurs of an upset from the Opposition Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), Modi’s decade-long tenure has undeniably transformed India into a formidable force on the global stage despite growing dissent, frustrations, and inequality in the constituency. 

Under his watch, India’s economy has flourished and its population of 1.5 billion stands as its greatest asset, driving innovation and growth. As the election results loom, the world watches closely, recognising that India’s trajectory under Modi’s continued leadership could redefine the balance of power in Asia and beyond.

China and India hold the key to unlocking the full potential of Asia, bearing the hopes and aspirations of 4.5 billion people in the region. This is undeniably Asia’s century, a period marked by rapid growth, technological innovation, and unprecedented influence on the global stage. As China leverages its economic clout and India capitalises on its vast human resources, both nations are poised to lead Asia into a new era of prosperity and power. The world can no longer deny these two giants’ pivotal role in shaping Asia’s future and the world. 

Anti-Modi narratives

Focusing on the Indian elections, many predicted an easy victory for Modi, yet doubt crept in during the campaign trail with various narratives at play. A section of Western media and their proxies crafted stories forecasting Modi’s downfall, challenging his bid for a third consecutive term. 

Historically, Western media narratives have often been critical of Asia’s rise and this election cycle was no different. For decades, one of Asia’s finest, Lee Kuan Yew, showcased the hypocrisy of Western media with one-sided narratives and it was the turn of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to turn the heat on the Western press this time.

Hundreds of op-eds and articles from around the globe were critical of Premier Narendra Modi, and the BJP mushroomed during the campaign trail. Some projected Modi as a face and Home Minister Amit Shah as everything else. It would have been a tremendous and balanced story if they had also mentioned the Bush-Cheney and Blair-Mandelson combinations without projecting only in Asia, as these things occur. Politics is universal; no one has a monopoly on the power play.

However, dissent is reasonable as it allows you to recreate your narrative compellingly, if necessary; otherwise some of it can be ignored. Premier Modi and the Opposition leaders, such as Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi and Arvind Kejriwal, all faced cyberbullying and hate from millions of social media critics. 

Dhruv Rathee, a young Indian YouTuber with 20.8 million subscribers, was adored by the anti-Modi section and hated by the Modi lovers. On average, his videos had 15 million views; some reaching 25 million views based on controversial subjects. Some of my colleagues who held independent or anti-Modi sentiments wanted to end Modi rule. Some were fearless and some were fearful. Young Rathee has shown the price of being daring, taking on a “tyrant,” as he narrated. Some enjoy money, some want fame, and some want power. Some want all three.

In our digital age, anti-Modi sentiments were widely disseminated and consumed. However, the impact on India’s 960 million voters will only become apparent in a few days as the world watches to see if these narratives swayed the electorate.

Modi and BJP campaign

The Modi and BJP campaign was bolstered by a decade of tangible successes, earning credibility despite facing numerous challenges and frustrations. Modi was presented as the definitive leader, synonymous with India’s recent economic strides and global presence. 

In contrast, the Opposition’s campaign lacked a singular anchor, relying instead on a collective team effort. Going up against a worldwide brand like Modi, with his track record of economic achievements, demanded a monumental and unified Opposition strategy. As election results loom, the question remains whether this collective effort was enough to challenge the incumbency and sway the electorate.

Modi projected himself as a divine gift to rejuvenate India and secure its rightful place on the global stage. This ‘messiah’ narrative is a familiar trope in political communications, evoking a sense of destiny and inevitability. 

The Opposition needed another charismatic leader or a robust alternative policy, action plan, and narrative to counter such an influential figure. However, Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi, the latest torchbearers of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, were criticised for their lack of imagination and coherence in their campaign. As a result, their efforts struggled to gain traction against Modi’s well-crafted persona and proven track record. 

It is seldom that a leader can blow his own trumpet. You need your allies to project how great you are. However, Modi said he was a godsend and gifted and his team said he was a godsend and gifted. It was missing in the Rahul and Priyanka duo. INDIA leaders like Kumar, Banerjee, Kejriwal, Yadav, Stalin, and Pawar seldom backed an anchor in cohesion. It’s understandable; all the above political brands are too big to sing hosanna for someone else. The fragile egos, personal interests, and political empires do not allow you to be united. Even in sports, all-star teams end up faring poorly. 

Modi, the saviour

Modi’s projection of himself as India’s saviour draws parallels to historical figures like Ashoka, Napoleon, and Alexander the Great, who also cast themselves as divinely-ordained leaders. After his transformative embrace of Buddhism, Ashoka positioned himself as a benevolent ruler destined to bring peace and prosperity to South Asia. Similarly, Napoleon portrayed himself as bringing order and reform to post-revolutionary France. At the same time, Alexander the Great saw himself as a destined conqueror, spreading Greek culture across the known world. 

In the book ‘Discovery of India’ (written in 1946), the great Jawaharlal Nehru (first Prime Minister of India from 1947 to 1964) writes: “Often, as I wandered from meeting to meeting, I spoke to my audience of this India of ours, of Hindustan and of Bharata, the old Sanskrit name derived from the mythical founder of the race. I seldom did so in the cities, for their audiences were more sophisticated and wanted strong fare. But to the peasant, with his limited outlook, I spoke of this great country for whose freedom we were struggling, of how each part differed from the other and yet was India, of common problems of the peasants from north to south and east to west, of the swaraj that only could be for all and every part and not for some. 

“I told them about journeying from the Khyber Pass in the far northwest to Kanyakumari or Cape Comorin in the distant south and how everywhere the peasants put me identical questions, for their troubles were the same – poverty, debt, vested interests, landlords, moneylenders, heavy rents and taxes, police harassment, and all these wrapped up in the structure that the foreign government had imposed upon us – and relief must also come for all. 

“I tried to make them think of India as a whole and even to some little extent of this wide world of which we were a part. I brought in the struggle in China, Spain, Abyssinia, Central Europe, Egypt, and the countries of Western Asia. I told them of the wonderful changes in the Soviet Union and the great progress made in America. The task was not easy, yet it was not so difficult as I had imagined, for our ancient epics, myths, and legends, which they knew so well, had made them familiar with the conception of their country. Some there were always who had travelled far and wide to the great places of pilgrimage, situated at the four corners of India.”

I quote him again: “Sometimes I reached a gathering, a great roar of welcome would greet me. ‘Bharat Mata Ki Jai’ – ‘Victory to Mother India’. I would ask them unexpectedly what they meant by that cry: who was this ‘Bharat Mata,’ Mother India, whose victory they wanted? My question would amuse them and surprise them, and then, not knowing exactly what to answer, they would look at each other and me. I persisted in my questioning. At last, a vigorous Jat, wedded to the soil from immemorial generations, would say it was the ‘dharti,’ the good earth of India, that they meant. What earth? Their particular village patch, or all the patches in the district or province, or in the whole of India? And so question and answer went on till they would ask me impatiently to tell them all about it. 

“I would endeavour to do so and explain that India was all this that they had thought, but it was much more. The mountains and the rivers of India, and the forests and the broad fields, which gave us food, were all dear to us, but what counted ultimately were the people of India, people like them and me, who were speared out all over this vast land. ‘Bharat Mata,’ Mother India, was essentially these millions of people, and victory to her meant victory to these people. You are parts of this ‘Bharat Mata,’ I told them, you are in a manner to yourselves ‘Bharat Mata,’ and as this idea slowly soaked into their brains, their eyes would light up as if they had made an extraordinary discovery.”

Rahul and Priyanka, the great-grandchildren of the great Jawaharlal Nehru, were leading the anti-Modi campaign. The above paragraph could have been their campaign narrative, but it was Modi’s campaign line for the last 10 years – and for the next five years, if he succeeds in securing a third successive term on 4 June. 

Religio-political wars

‘Bharat Mata’ was the underlying campaign theme for Modi 3.0, which took Nehru’s ‘Bharat Mata’ concept to a different level. Nehru was widely regarded for his stand for secular India but there are severe questions and critics of Modi’s path for India – weaponising Hinduism for political power. In India, approximately 80% of the population by religion are Hindus and 14% are believers of Islam as per the 2011 census. As per census reports, a 1951 to 2011 comparison shows a 5% reduction of Hindus and in the same period a 45% growth of believers of Islam. 

The religious political wars have become the norm again; even the rise of Muslim political leadership in the United Kingdom has been the talk of the town recently, with Sadiq Khan holding onto the Mayorship of London since 2016. In Indonesia, vote bank politics are shaping up, with Islam as a shield; in Russia, the orthodox church plays a role in politics; and in the US, Christian nationalism is on the rise. 

Unfortunately, over centuries, humankind has been divided by religion. Instead, can religion unite people? Can a rejuvenated Bharat show the way for tolerance, diversity, and harmony to the world? 

In the last 30 years, India rebranded its main cities from colonial names to national names. Today, Bombay is Mumbai, Calcutta is Kolkata, Madras is Chennai, Bangalore is Bengaluru, Poona is Pune, and Banaras is Varanasi. If Modi succeeds in securing his third successive term on 4 June, will we see Bharat instead of India? Bharat will be Modi’s Ashoka moment. If that occurs, this will be one of the most significant brand changes in humanity’s history.

Xi and the ‘Chinese dream’

Like Modi, Xi crafted a narrative positioning himself as the chosen one, uniquely destined to lead China into a new era of greatness. Xi didn’t rely solely on revolutionary or economic credentials like Mao Zedong or Deng Xiaoping. Instead, he blended these legacies, portraying himself as the leader who could fulfil China’s historic rejuvenation mission.

Just as Ashoka, Napoleon, and Alexander the Great used the mantle of destiny to consolidate their power, Xi presented himself as the harbinger of a ‘Chinese dream’ – a vision of national renewal and global prominence. Through sweeping reforms, an assertive foreign policy, and strategic purges within his party, Xi solidified his position, projecting an image of stability and certainty.

These modern leaders harnessed historical narratives of messianic leadership in China and India, crafting personas destined to elevate their nations. Modi and Xi’s stories underscore a timeless political truth: when a leader casts themselves as a divinely favoured saviour, it becomes a formidable task for any opposition to mount a practical challenge without an equally compelling vision or figurehead. As a result, their nations stand at the forefront of Asia’s rise, shaping the region’s destiny in profound and lasting ways.

Enter Arvind Kejriwal

In China, the one-party rule under Xi ensures a controlled political landscape. However, in India’s vibrant democracy, winning a third successive term is an uphill battle for any leader. Modi’s stature and the BJP’s well-oiled political machinery present formidable challenges. Yet, amidst this daunting scenario, INDIA began to find momentum in the middle of the campaign. 

Emerging against all odds, this coalition started to resonate with voters, presenting a united front capable of challenging Modi’s dominance. Its late surge introduced an element of unpredictability, with many fearing an upset. The alliance’s ability to galvanise support and craft a compelling narrative in the final stages underscored the dynamic and resilient nature of Indian democracy, where even the most entrenched leaders can face significant challenges.

Not many would agree with me, but the Arvind Kejriwal fiasco and his subsequent jail term significantly disrupted INDIA’s momentum. Suddenly, amid a carefully orchestrated campaign, the focus shifted entirely to Kejriwal. This unplanned and unwarranted incident highlights how fragile political campaigns can be. 

In the high-stakes arena of political campaigning, unexpected events can swiftly derail even the most well-planned strategies. INDIA, which had begun to find its footing and generate genuine enthusiasm, was blindsided by the controversy surrounding Kejriwal. Instead of pushing forward with its collective message, it was forced into a defensive position, grappling with damage control and standing for Kejriwal.

Power struggle on the cards

If Kejriwal survives his legal battles and Modi secures another victory, the political arena is set for a dramatic power struggle. Kejriwal, driven by boundless ambition and armed with a reputation for grassroots activism, could challenge the leadership of Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi within the Opposition. His relentless focus on anti-corruption (but he is booked for corruption now) and governance reforms resonates strongly with urban middle-class and disenfranchised voters, positioning him as a compelling alternative to Modi. 

This rise would inevitably clash with the Gandhis, who have long been the faces of the Congress Party and national politics. As Kejriwal’s influence grows, a fierce battle for dominance within the Opposition is likely to unfold, with his soaring ambitions threatening to overshadow the traditional leadership of the Gandhis. This internal struggle could redefine the dynamics of Indian politics, with both sides vying for the mantle of a chief challenger to Modi’s BJP.

‘Messiah’ narrative

The ‘messiah’ narrative is not confined to Asia. Donald Trump’s rise to the presidency in 2017 was a masterclass in creating a narrative more significant than life itself. With his ‘Make America Great Again’ slogan, he cast himself as the saviour of a nation that, in his telling, had lost its way. This powerful, emotionally-charged message resonated deeply with many Americans who felt left behind by the political establishment.

Trump’s unconventional, often irrational approach allowed him to dominate the news cycle and overshadow his opponent, Hillary Clinton. While Clinton campaigned on experience and policy, Trump ran circles around her with his relentless energy and brash rhetoric. His ability to tap into the fears and hopes of voters, combined with a relentless focus on his narrative of national rejuvenation, ultimately won him the day. Despite his unpredictability and contentious style, Trump’s message struck a chord, propelling him to a victory that defied conventional political logic. 

Trump vs. Biden in 2024 will be a great watch. The US needs a strongman at the negotiation table with Xi, Modi, and Putin. If the former President runs, he will inevitably invoke ‘Make America Great Again’ with more vigour than in 2016. The US is not Reagan’s US anymore. It’s easier to talk about the inner core desires of Americans for pride. The pride they grew up with is slowly vanishing by the day.

Politics makes strange bedfellows. It’s not for the faint-hearted. It’s a blood sport. It’s all about the art of possibility. It’s about capturing power and, most importantly, sustaining power. The below from ‘The Panchatantra’ sums up the world: ‘All things in the world live off one another, using many different strategies to do so, some peaceful, others not so peaceful. Think.’

Rulers live off their lands,

Physicians off the sick,

Merchants live off the consumers, 

They learned from fools;

Thieves live off the unwary,

Almsmen off householders;

Harlots off pleasure seekers,

And workers of the whole world.

Snares of many sorts are carefully set;

Day and night, they lie in wait, watchful,

Surviving by sheer strength – fish eating fish. 

Fish eating fish — for survival. Once in power, you would not want to leave. Politics is a microcosm of human life. ‘Messiahs’ are not immortal and there is a downside. The sustainability of the narrative depends on not only the leader’s code of conduct but also his followers and the machinery. 

In the midst of this, Asia is rising. There is hope for the world.

By Saliya Weerakoon

The post Asian roar appeared first on Tashkent Citizen.

The four suspected gunmen under arrest are all citizens of Tajikistan, a central Asian nation that was once part of the Soviet Union. Following the Crocus City attack, Russian police started rounding up and deporting workers who are originally from Tajikistan, as well as from Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

The attack, which Russia has blamed on Ukraine, also sparked massive police raids, document checks of migrants as well as harassment towards central Asian immigrants . There are an estimated 10 million labour migrants from central Asia living in Russia, according to the Russian interior ministry. Central Asian migrants have seen Russia’s recent labour shortages, the result of of conscription and the Ukraine war, as an opportunity to find work.

What might change?

Russia’s war in Ukraine has also been an opportunity for these republics to choose a more independent political path, while Vladimir Putin’s attention was elsewhere. A complete break with Russia is unlikely due to geographical proximity and intertwined economies. But there have been some signs that central Asian nations are interested in making their own political decisions without constantly checking with Russia.

One was the refusal of Kazakhstan’s president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, in June 2022 to recognise Russia’s annexation of the partially occupied Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk into the Russian Federation. Tokayev also said that Kazakhstan had no intention of helping Russia to circumvent western economic sanctions. The region also did not support Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008. But central Asia republics were more reluctant to condemn the annexation of Crimea in 2014, taking a more neutral position. Following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine the region has been looking for opportunities to build its relationships with other nations without upsetting Russia.

Leaders of central Asian republics have also shown their disapproval of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in more subtle ways. Most of them, except Turkmenistan, opened their borders to accept thousands of Russian citizens looking for refuge and to escape conscription. This did not go unnoticed in Moscow, where measures to reverse immigration were introduced.

Meanwhile, at home these regional leaders find fewer people who speak Russian and are interested in Russian culture. Polls indicate that many people in central Asia (49% in Kyrgyzstan, 43% in Kazakhstan) blame their current economic problems on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. There have been anti-war protests in Kazakhstan and some entertainment venues are refusing to host Russian stars. Central Asian media outlets have been blocked in Russia for trying to cover the war in Ukraine objectively.

However, at the United Nations general assembly, these states either abstain from voting to condemn Russia’s war in Ukraine or vote with Russia on resolutions, including one on violations of human rights in Crimea.

Historically, Moscow sees its role in the region as a security guarantor, and as a founding member of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) which aims to ensure peace and stability in the region. Russian paratroopers arrived in Kazakhstan after Tokayev had requested assistance from the CSTO with the protests that broke out in January 2022. The unprecedented unrest, known as Bloody January, started peacefully but quickly turned violent.

People took to the streets to protest a sharp increase in fuel prices, clashing with police and looting and attacking government property.

Despite the apparent need to restore order, the Kazakh public was disgruntled by such a blatant intervention in the country’s internal affairs. There was a general air of relief when Russian troops left.

Overall, central Asia is walking a fine line between pursuing more independence from Russia and not disturbing the regional balance of power.

One sign of change was a meeting in 2023 between regional presidents, including Sadyr Japarov of the Kyrgyz Republic and Tokayev, with US president Joe Biden in New York and with German chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin. It appears that while central Asian countries were not ready to talk about regional security, they were interested in discussing green energy, climate change, and stabilising Afghanistan.

What the west wants

The west will see this as an opportunity to build alliances and to offset Russian influence, given the area’s strategic importance and abundance of natural resources. By fostering these relationships, western countries can potentially secure energy supplies and promote stability in a region historically dominated by Russia. In return, central Asian republics might seek economic investment and technological development, and potentially support to strengthen their political independence.

As Russia prepares for a long war, there are likely to be further opportunities for central Asia to forge a new relationship with the west, but any shift is expected to be gradual.

Source: The Conversation

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