As Victoria Nuland steps down, she gets real about a world on fire.

Victoria Nuland has long been known as a relentless, even pugnacious, U.S. diplomat, with a strong belief in American power. The approach sometimes got her in trouble, but it rarely held her back.

Nuland recently left the State Department after serving at its highest levels, first as the Biden administration’s undersecretary of State for political affairs, and, for several months, acting deputy secretary of State. She previously was a career diplomat who held an array of roles under presidents both Republican and Democratic; her first posting more than three decades ago was as a consular officer in China.

In an exit interview with POLITICO Magazine, Nuland discussed her time in public service — dismissing chatter that she was passed over for a promotion — as well as her views on where American foreign policy has gone wrong and right.

Notably, she said the United States was not quick enough to realize and prevent the expansionist ambitions of both Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping.

A longtime champion of Ukraine and the effort to counter Russia, she also warned about the perils of Donald Trump blowing up NATO if he wins back the White House in November.

“Don’t throw it out,” she said of the trans-Atlantic alliance, “because you would never be able to re-create it again.”

The following has been edited for length and clarity:

How’s life on the outside?

Life is wonderful. I am doing a lot of projects that I had put off, seeing a lot of people that I love, and I’m staying involved in ways that are meaningful. I’m speaking on foreign policy issues I care about — whether it is Ukraine or ensuring that the United States leads strongly in the world. I’m getting a chance to prepare for my classes in the fall and work with the next generation of foreign policy leaders. I’ll be at Columbia’s School of International and Public Affairs.

Why leave the Biden administration, really? People said you felt passed over for the deputy secretary of State job. Is that true?

I actually didn’t compete for the deputy secretary of State job. I loved being undersecretary for political affairs. I love working with Secretary [Antony] Blinken. But as you know, I’ve done three years altogether and I’ve done eight months plus in both jobs, and so it was just the right time for me and my family to do something different.

Do you have any regrets from your time in the role?

I think whenever you finish a job like this, you wish you’d been able to do more on more issues. Travel more, touch more people, get more done faster, ensure the U.S. was leading strongly on as many continents as possible, mentor more of the next generation. And you’re always constrained by time, by resources, by the crises that overwhelm the inbox. So you always want to have done more.

Can Ukraine win this war against Russia? And how do you define winning?

Let’s start with the fact that Putin has already failed in his objective. He wanted to flatten Ukraine. He wanted to ensure that they had no sovereignty, independence, agency, no democratic future — because a democratic Ukraine, a European Ukraine, is a threat to his model for Russia, among other things, and because it’s the first building block for his larger territorial ambitions.

Can Ukraine succeed? Absolutely. Can Ukraine come out of this more sovereign, more economically independent, stronger, more European than it is now? Absolutely. And I think it will. But we’ve got to stay with it. We’ve got to make sure our allies stay with it.

And we have to accelerate a lot of the initiatives that were in the supplemental, like helping Ukraine build that highly deterrent military force of the future, like deploying these longer-range weapons to strategic effect, like ensuring that the critical infrastructure and the energy sector are protected, like building up our own defense industrial base and that of our allies and Ukraine’s again, so that we and Ukraine are building faster than Russia and China.

But can it get all its territory back, including Crimea?

It can definitely get to a place where it’s strong enough, I believe, and where Putin is stymied enough to go to the negotiating table from a position of strength. It’ll be up to the Ukrainian people what their territorial ambitions should be. But there are certain things that are existential.

Any deal that they cut in their interest and in the larger global interest has to be a deal that Putin is compelled to stick to. We can’t be doing this every six months, every three years. It has to actually lead to a deal that includes Russian withdrawal.

Putin is a master at what we call rope-a-dope negotiating, where he never actually cuts the deal. It has to be a deal that ensures that whatever is decided on Crimea, it can’t be remilitarized such that it’s a dagger at the heart of the center of Ukraine.

Was it a mistake not to push the Ukrainians harder to go for some sort of negotiated end to the war in 2022, especially the fall of 2022?

They were not in a strong enough position then. They’re not in a strong enough position now. The only deal Putin would have cut then, the only deal that he would cut today, at least before he sees what happens in our election, is a deal in which he says, “What’s mine is mine and what’s yours is negotiable.” And that’s not sustainable.

You’ve had a long career, especially when it comes to Europe. Where did the U.S. go wrong in its understanding of Russia?

With regard to both Russia and China, after the end of the Cold War, the prevailing wisdom among all of us — right, left and center — was that if you could knit Moscow and Beijing into the open and free global order that we had benefited from for so many years, that they would become prosperous, and they would become strong contributing members of that order. And that’s what we tried for a very long time.

That works if you have a leadership that is fundamentally accepting the current system. But once you have leaders who are telling their populations that this system keeps their country down, doesn’t allow it to have its rightful place, that has a territorial definition of greatness, that is bent on economic, political and or military coercion — that’s antithetical to this order, and then our policy has to change.

Did we realize fast enough Putin’s ambitions and Xi Jinping’s ambitions, and did we do enough to ensure that those ambitions stayed inside their own nations and didn’t spill out and coerce others? 20/20 hindsight? Probably not.

How much of it comes down to what particular guy is running the show? I sometimes wonder, could things be different if it wasn’t Putin in charge? If it wasn’t Xi? How much of it comes down to the dude at the top?

In highly centralized societies, which both China and Russia have historically been, without an electoral refresh of the kind that we all go through in the democratic world, it matters hugely, because it’s that human who’s defining what greatness means. It’s that human who’s deciding how to maintain order in that society. It’s that human — allowing them to speak, allowing a free press, allowing protests, allowing alternative political parties — who’s going to shape the options. And that constrains obviously the kind of relationship we can have.

What is the lesson we should learn about foreign policy in general when it comes to the experiences we’ve had in Russia and China?

We should always try to talk both to leaders and to people, to the extent that we’re allowed. We should always offer an opportunity to work together in common interest.

But if the ideology is inherently expansionist, is inherently illiberal, is inherently trying to change the system that benefits us, we’ve got to build protections and resilience for ourselves, for our friends and allies, and particularly for those neighbors of those countries who are likely to be on the front line of that first push.

Where do you see the Israel-Hamas war heading?

Essentially, there are two paths on the table. There is continuing this war with all of the destruction and horror and lack of clarity about how you end Hamas’ reign of terror.

The other path is the route that the administration and allies and partners and a lot of countries in the Gulf are pushing, and a lot of Israelis want, which is: a hostage deal leads to a long-term cease-fire, leads to a better future for Palestinians both in the West Bank and in Gaza, leads to Saudi-Israel normalization and a path to two states, and a region where the ideology and the violence that Hamas is offering is beaten by more opening, more opportunity, more peace, more stability.

Are you saying that because you believe it or because it’s the Biden administration’s position?

I’m saying it because, anything other than that, this is going to happen again and again and again.

If you could go back in time on that one, what, if anything, should the U.S. have done differently?

Beginning with the Trump administration, everybody fell in love with regional normalization as the cure-all for the instability and grievances and insecurity in the Middle East. And that’s a part of it.

But if you leave out the Palestinian issue, then somebody’s going to seize it and run with it, and that’s what Hamas did. I also think that both we and the Israelis knew too little about the terror state that had been established in Gaza.

You’re going to be teaching at Columbia, the epicenter of campus protests over this situation. If you could offer these protesters some advice as someone with significant policymaking experience, what would it be?

Peaceful protest is part of the fabric of who we are and the fact that we allow it, and the Chinese don’t and the Russians don’t, makes us Americans. But when that protest becomes violent, when it impinges on other people’s human rights or denigrates others, then you veer toward coercion.

So, express your views, ask for concrete paths forward. But stay away from violence, make sure that it’s actually indigenous to the campus, that you’re not becoming the tool of outside agitators. And be respectful of alternative views as you expect people to respect your views.

What if you are peaceful? And you say what you want and the people in charge just say, ‘Oh, that’s very nice, thank you,’ and then they ignore you and they keep doing what they’ve been doing for years. How do you do just keep pushing on that front? Do you join the government?

I would certainly say if you care enough to devote all day, every day to political change, come join the folks who are setting policy, commit your life to public service. I didn’t expect that that’s where my life would lead, but it’s been incredibly rewarding.

There are many, many ways to change policy, but being on the inside is not only extremely rewarding, but you can actually get stuff done.

If Trump wins, and leaves NATO or limits America’s role in NATO, does the alliance fall apart? What happens?

First and foremost, America suffers. Because if you look at every single one of the challenges we have globally, even as we make the security commitment to Europe, it is the European countries who have contributed more to Ukraine — on the security side, on the economic side, etc. It is the European countries who have to adapt their policies toward China if you want to have an impact on China’s eagerness to coerce others. It’s the European countries who we need to help fund the Haiti mission, to help defeat terrorism in Africa, and provide prosperity.

If we are not part of that family, on a daily basis, we are standing alone, our own influence in the world is greatly reduced, and we have no influence over how they choose to spend their energy and resources. And they’re less powerful in doing it without us.

What about this idea that look, we’re the U.S. at the end of the day. We’re the superpower. Whether we’re in NATO or not, people are going to come along with us. Isn’t there something to that argument?

I’ve worked for six presidents, Republicans and Democrats. I always believed that a new president with a fresh mandate from the American people should look at every global problem with fresh eyes, bring new solutions, and should have that opportunity, working with Congress, working with the American people, working with allies and partners.

That’s a different thing than turning your back on bedrock, bipartisan institutions and policies that have protected Americans and advanced our own prosperity and global influence for 70 years.

Why do you want to throw out what’s working and what benefits us for no other reason than you’ve had a fit of pique? Work within the institution to make it work better. Don’t throw it out, because you would never be able to re-create it again.

Does the rest of the world fear the United States?

Is fear what we want from the rest of the world?

Sometimes.

I think what we want from the rest of the world is they see us leading in a manner that advances their own security, advances their own prosperity, creates this community of nations that can handle global problems — whether they are terrorist problems, whether they are health problems, whether they’re environmental problems — and we do it in a primarily self-interested but unselfish way, and we’re creating that community.

They should only fear us if they’re opponents of a largely liberal democratic way of advancing human prosperity. And in that context, if they are viciously invading a neighbor, if they are coercing a little state because they can, then I hope they would fear our reaction and the reaction that we will build with other democracies who want to protect the system that favors freedom.

Do you ever plan to go back into government?

I love what I did for 35 years. I’ve always loved it. And I continue to love it. So in the right circumstances, of course.

Source: Politico

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SINGAPORE – The Chinese embassy in Singapore on March 18 asked its citizens in the Republic to “stay away” from gambling, adding that cross-border gambling violates Chinese laws.

The embassy, in a statement on its official WeChat account, “solemnly reminded” Chinese citizens in Singapore to steer clear of gambling, which is strictly prohibited by law in China.

“Even if overseas casinos are opened legally, cross-border gambling by Chinese citizens is suspected of violating the laws of our country and face the risk of punitive actions,” said the embassy, warning that embassies may not be able to provide consular protection for illegal gambling violations.

Using a Chinese idiom to describe how 10 out of 10 bets lead to cheating incidents or losses, the embassy said in its notice that people who gamble face the risk of running up debts, financial ruin and the destruction of their families.

Cross-border gambling may also be related to illegal activities not limited to scams, money laundering, kidnapping and smuggling, the embassy added.

Those who know of Chinese citizens operating casinos overseas or approaching fellow Chinese to gamble were also urged to report it through official reporting platforms or to the Singapore police.

In response to a question from Reuters at a news conference in China, Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said the country’s position on cross-border gambling is clear, according to Chinese media reports.

He said Chinese capital cannot be invested in overseas casinos, and Chinese citizens are not allowed to run overseas casinos.

Overseas casinos also should not invite Chinese citizens to gamble on their premises, he added.

The Straits Times has contacted the Chinese embassy, Marina Bay Sands and Resorts World Sentosa for comment.

Apart from state-sanctioned lotteries, gambling is banned in China. But that has prompted organisations such as the Guangdong Club, which operates an online gambling platform, to register itself overseas in Costa Rica.

Special administrative region Macau is the only part of China where gambling activities are legal.

China, through its embassies, has previously reminded its citizens in countries including Malaysia, Italy, Angola, Sri Lanka and South Korea that travelling abroad to gamble is illegal.

China has been working with countries in South-east Asia to deter cross-border gambling.

In September 2023, six Asean member nations – Malaysia, Laos, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and the Philippines – signed an agreement to collaborate on combatting transnational gambling crime in the region.

The agreement notably targeted organised crime groups that have lured thousands of people to work in casinos or scam compounds under the guise of jobs paying lucrative wages.

Source

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Brussel, Frankfurt (16/11 – 23)

A levying of embargoes and export bans, the imposition of sanctions, erection of fearsome “license” (= restriction) protocol: there’s nothing new about this back-and-forth in world trade, in the eternal jousting for advantage among markets and nations. The clever Chinese imagined they had the world tea market all locked up until an earnest Scottish botanist carrying the telling name of “Robert Fortune” snuck into the Middle Kingdom to observe their agriculture, steal tea plants, and pick up tricks of tea processing. The Chinese global tea monopoly was busted wide open.

The fortunate Mr. Fortune was actually in the employ of the insidious British East India Company; today tea is happily cultivated on every continent except Antarctica.

The Government of India is currently banning the export of onions. Read it and weep.

The USA did not approve of Japanese expansion throughout Southeast Asia in the late 1930s, and embargoed oil and rubber, among other critical items. This more or less forced Japan to go to war against the west. Thus Pearl Harbor and the ensuing four years of tragedy in the Pacific.

Readers should all be familiar with the European/American sanctions on the Russian Federation, attempting to cripple their economy for having started a “Special Military Operation” to halt the oppression and killing of ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine. Guess who engineered that mess, a conflict now looking lost and forlorn for the noble democracies.

It’s China’s turn. American politicians, many in the pocket of super-affluent Chinese banks and state-controlled industries, have to be portrayed as “fighting China” so they go through the motions, by imposing chip technology export restrictions on what just happens to be their largest banker, supplier of consumer goods and trading partner.

China now responds, in what is essentially a Punch’n’Judy show, by erecting complex “export license” restrictions on gallium and germanium, rare earths technically classified as “minor metals”, not commonly encountered in nature, or refined as the by-product of other processes.

Note that these materials are used in the production of microchips critical to military applications, so it is not surprising that their export would be curtailed.

The Americans are attempting to impede the development of “advanced microprocessor technology”, a sweeping term covering a very large area of consumer, industrial and official applications, by the PRC.

According to the Critical Raw Materials Alliance (CRMA), an industry organ, China is the source of 80% of the world’s gallium and 60% of its germanium. You can be certain that miners around the globe and digging through their tailings to extract any of this trace material.

The export bans are doomed to fail, just as the manifold sanctions on Russian oil and gas have been handily circumvented by buyers and refiners everywhere.

China, like Russia, is acting carefully and prudently in these reprisals and counter-reprisals, assuming that the USA and its Euro-vassal are skidding downhill, with a soon-to-be-worthless currency, but are still dangerous. In short, the Americans are assumed to be insane.

Pause for a moment and imagine what would happen if the People’s Republic of China, producer of ~90% of the antibiotics sold in the United States of America, decided that they’d prefer to keep their medications at home, just in case, or perhaps market them somewhere else. Or that they would demand payment in Renminbi, on par with the wobbly dollar. No antibiotics? No problem.

That’s how crazy it’s getting.  

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On November 21, 2023, Member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Foreign Minister of Uzbekistan Bakhtiyor Saidov held the first Foreign Ministers’ Strategic Dialogue between China and Uzbekistan in Beijing. The two sides had an all-round and in-depth communication on implementing the important common understandings reached by the two heads of state and strengthening the alignment of development strategies, reached extensive common understandings, and jointly announced the establishment of the mechanism of Foreign Ministers’ Strategic Dialogue between the two countries.

Wang Yi said that China and Uzbekistan are friendly neighbors with a shared future. No matter how the international situation changes, China-Uzbekistan relations have always maintained sound and steady development and been full of vitality. Since last year, President Xi Jinping and President Shavkat Mirziyoyev have successfully paid visits to each other’s country. On the sidelines of the third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation, the two heads of state held another meeting, agreeing to advance the building of a China-Uzbekistan community with a shared future, and painting a blueprint for the development of bilateral relations. The prime ministers of the two countries also had a productive meeting this year. The close high-level interaction shows the high level and uniqueness of China-Uzbekistan relations, and also demonstrates the distinct features of relations between the two countries featuring mutual respect, good-neighborly friendship, solidarity in trying times, and mutual benefit. China is ready to work with Uzbekistan to make good use of the new platform of China-Uzbekistan Foreign Ministers’ Strategic Dialogue, advance all-round mutually beneficial cooperation and speed up the building of a China-Uzbekistan community with a shared future. To that end, Wang Yi made a four-point proposal.

First, the two countries need to consolidate the belief of solidarity and mutual trust. The two sides need to continue to support each other at crucial moments, and safeguard the political foundation of relations between the two countries and international fairness and justice. The two sides need to advocate and act upon true multilateralism, and make the global governance system more just and equitable.

Second, the two countries need to foster the engine for common development. The two sides need to take high-quality Belt and Road cooperation ushering into a new stage of high-quality development as an opportunity to align the eight major steps to support the joint pursuit of Belt and Road cooperation in a comprehensive way, and speed up common development and prosperity. The two sides need to implement well the medium- to long-term plan for China-Uzbekistan cooperation in economy, trade and investment, and deepen exchanges and cooperation in economy, trade and investment, finance, connectivity, agriculture, energy, and green development, among other fields.

Third, the two countries need to cultivate public opinion for everlasting friendship. The two sides need to host the Culture Day activities in each other’s country, and expand cooperation in the Luban Workshop, education, poverty alleviation, tourism, localities, and construction of the innovative economic zone, among others. China supports Uzbekistan in holding the 2025 Asian Youth Games, and supports the hosting of the first China-Uzbekistan Forum on Local Cooperation.

Fourth, the two countries need to safeguard peace and stability. The two sides need to further strengthen cooperation in counter-terrorism, counternarcotics, cracking down on transnational organized crimes, and cyber- and bio-security. China opposes interference by any forces in Central Asian countries’ internal affairs under any pretexts.

Bakhtiyor Saidov said that President Shavkat Mirziyoyev and President Xi Jinping had successful meetings and maintained close communication, steering the course of Uzbekistan-China relations and opening a new chapter in bilateral cooperation. Uzbekistan values the solid mutual trust between the two heads of state and good neighborliness and friendliness between Uzbekistan and China, supports a series of global initiatives put forth by President Xi Jinping, and will stay committed to the one-China principle, firmly support each other, and deepen strategic mutual trust. Uzbekistan congratulated China on the success of the third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation not long ago, which has provided an important platform for promoting the common development and prosperity of all countries. Mutually beneficial and win-win cooperation between Uzbekistan and China is of crucial importance for Uzbekistan to accelerate diversified development. Uzbekistan fully agrees with China’s proposal, and looks forward to deepening all-round cooperation between the two countries in a comprehensive way, so as to take the Uzbekistan-China comprehensive strategic partnership to a new level.

The two sides said that they will further strengthen coordination within such multilateral frameworks as the United Nations, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, promote the building of the China-Central Asia mechanism, and safeguard regional peace, development, security and stability.

The two sides also had an exchange of views on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, among others. Wang Yi expounded on China’s principled position, and introduced the recent visit to China by a delegation of Arab-Islamic foreign ministers. Bakhtiyor Saidov highly appreciated China’s efforts to uphold justice, and agreed that the two-state solution must be adhered to so as to jointly promote the just settlement of the Palestinian question.

Source: In China Embassy

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DUBAI: Energy company ACWA Power is getting closer to securing its first deal in China, the firm’s CEO Marco Arcelli told Arab News on the sidelines of the UN Climate Change Conference. 

The Saudi-based firm has seen its ties with the Asian country grow in 2023, including signing seven cooperation agreements with various Chinese firms in October across multiple sectors, including solar energy, green hydrogen, and water desalination.

Speaking from the COP28 forum in Dubai, Arcelli set out how the expansion into the Chinese market is part of the company’s plan to increase the value of its asset book to $250 billion, as it is develops across Central and East Asia. 

“Right now, the single biggest country is Uzbekistan for the new activity, and all of Central Asia we see coming up with a lot of potential. The next target for us is China. And I am confident that within a few months we will be able to announce the first deal in China,” Arcelli said.  

Elaborating on the recently signed memorandums of agreement with Chinese firms, the CEO highlighted the firm has three main objectives when it comes to expanding into the Asian country.

The first is to keep working with the Chinese in regional and global projects, the second is to expand investments in the country itself, while the third is closer working on research and development.

Arcelli added: “We’re working a lot, particularly in the Shanghai area and with a lot of suppliers. To give you some idea of the activities we are working on. You know that here in the Gulf, temperatures are very high. The efficiency of the solar panels decreases.

“We are working with suppliers on how we can make the panels more suitable for installations to our region. It is going to benefit us, but it is also going to benefit all the industry in the end.” 

He further outlined that ACWA Power is discussing ways for Chinese companies to “localize in Saudi Arabia” by demonstrating the “solid program” they have integrated in the Kingdom.  

According to the CEO, the company is also in talks with other nations from Central Asia in hopes that they will develop the needed equipment locally, thus creating a strong ecosystem for growth in Saudi Arabia. 

Outlining the Kingdom’s potential and role within the Saudi renewable sphere, the CEO highlighted that the company will be responsible for delivering the Public Investment Fund program of 70 percent of the renewable energy that will be installed in the country.  

‘‘We have a goal of tripling the size of the company to about $250 billion of assets under management, up from less than $80 billion when I joined at the beginning of the year,’’ said Arcelli. 

The CEO flagged up the Red Sea Global project in Saudi Arabia as one of the key developments it is involved in, and said: “We just completed the first phase of the Red Sea Global, which is going to be one of the best and biggest tourist attractions in the world. 

“We are providing the utilities there to these resorts and that one is 100 percent powered by green electricity. That means not only the power generation, but also the desalination and the wastewater that we are using there. 

“That will go through a process where we are going to create mangrove wetlands so that basically that’s going to be part of the Saudi Green Initiative to plant the 1 billion trees by 2030.’’ 

Arcelli also underscored the various milestones and achievements registered by the company in 2023, saying: “I just joined in March this year. So, I have been here for eight months and the speed of growth and of activity in the company is just phenomenal. In the past eight months, we signed agreements for almost 10 gigawatts of power between Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan and other countries.

“We have signed water agreements for 1.4 million cubic meters per day in Saudi Arabia and in the Emirates. We just broke ground this week on the second green hydrogen project that we participate in. All together we are growing in renewables and we’re growing in water by 20 percent this year.”

He also talked up the firm’s position as a “leading player” in the green ammonia industry, and its moves in transitioning facilities away from fossil fuels.

“For instance, recently in the Emirates, we converted a power plant that was built for using coal and we converted it to gas,” he said. 

ACWA Power also converted a water desalination plant that was running on oil to reverse osmosis power by electricity. This has led to a saving of 22 million barrels of oil per year, informed Arcelli. 

Together with the Saudi Electricity Co., ACWA Power has also recently bagged the deal for setting up a 3.6 gigawatts combined cycle plant.  

Like many companies emerging from a legacy of fossil fuels, ACWA Power was “practically producing 100 percent electricity from fossil fuel until six or seven years ago,” said Arcelli. 

Today, 43 percent of the company’s capacity, 53 GW, is coming from renewables, and the CEO expects that number to rise to between 70-80 percent.

As part of its mission to be an enabler of energy transition in countries that primarily only have access to coal or more polluting fuels, the company does not intend to entirely stop working with gas-fired combined cycles, Arcelli said. 

Operating in the Global South, Africa, South East Asia and Central Asia, as it stands, does not allow for a complete, 100 percent transition of the needed energy in the region to renewables. 

“We will do as many renewables as we can and complement that together with the goals and the plans of the local government to some combined cycles. We have a deadline for achieving net zero by 2050. Again, one of the reasons is that there is now a period where gas will still be required there – basically to fuel – but as we continue to add more renewables and more capacity over the long term, that is the goal,” he said.  

ACWA Power is also looking at other emerging dimensions of renewable energy, like the large capacity battery storage. “We believe that as you introduce more renewable energy into a system, the more you need to think about how to stabilize the grid,” Arcelli said.

He added: “There are multiple ways. One is the system itself. So, if you have combined cycles, flexible generation, as we call it, then you can use that as a backup solution in other areas where you are blessed by a lot of sun. 

“One of the greatest technologies is concentrated solar power. We do it here in the Emirates, so we do it in Morocco, we do it in South Africa, and we are exploring other countries.

Arcelli said having “the power of the sun 24 hours a day” would be of huge benefit as he talked up ACWA Power’s battery storage program, which he claimed is equivalent to the whole battery storage capacity installed in all of Europe in 2022. 

For ACWA Power, the biggest such project is the RSG, which has grids that detach themselves from the main grid. Since it is solar, the project needed to have battery storage. Arcelli said that it is a massive 1.2 GWH for 400 megawatts of solar, so that one can have it all the time. 

Arcelli was full of appreciation for the rapid transitions in energy provision being made by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, claiming the two countries are “leading the pack” in the transition. 

“Both have, you know, very significant targets, Saudi Arabia to reach 50:50 renewables and combined cycles by 2030. That’s only seven years away. So that’s a massive programme. And the Emirates, they want to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030,’’ he said. 

He pointed out that ACWA Power was a big player in both countries, adding: “That is how we bring our contribution, by bringing all the technologies and the financing from around the world, choosing the best and applying it so that we can offer the most competitive rates. Europe started really 20 years ago.

“The region here, of course, had abundant fossil resources. So there was maybe not as much urgency 20 years ago as there is today.”

Arcelli continued: “But I see basically all the countries here in the region taking that direction. And as I mentioned, it is just a matter of when, not if. Some started earlier with the visionary leaders that, you know, we were blessed with, and others are certainly coming along very positively.” 

Looking at the state of the global energy businesses, Arcelli said that he felt the industry had taken to renewables as a whole for a variety of factors, but most notably due to its economic reasoning.  

“I think that in power generation I don’t even talk anymore about renewables because that’s what everybody wants to do. The only time where we are not installing renewables is because you need to either grow a lot quickly and so you need also other types of generation or you want to complement your system,” he said.

Arcelli added: “For instance, you may have some solar, some wind, some nuclear, some gas fired generation, but let’s not debate that because renewables are not built by ideology today, they are built because they are the most efficient, they are the most secure, and that they are the most affordable type of energy that you can install.’’ 

Source: Arab News

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The Middle East & Ukraine on trial as a Putin-emboldened Xi Jinping is set to meet the US President 

China and Russia are strengthening their strategic partnership in the Middle East, which helps counterbalance the United States in the region. The countries share the opinion that the cause of the Israel-Palestine conflict was not the Hamas terrorist attacks, but an inability to guarantee the rights of the Palestinian people.

On October 18 this year, when US President Biden visited Israel, a high-level forum was held in Beijing to mark the 10th anniversary of the Chinese Belt & Road Initiative. In numerous photos, Russian President Vladimir Putin stands next to President Xi Jinping. The latter paved the way for Putin to return to the international arena, as the Russian President was not able to travel to major events abroad after the West introduced a warrant for his arrest. In addition to Xi Jinping, Putin also held individual meetings in Beijing with the leaders of eight other countries.

In his speech at the same forum, the Russian President unveiled plans to connect Russia to the Belt & Road Initiative.

In terms of Russia-China connectivity, in addition to the already existing Indian Ocean Sea Routes, (via both Suez and Vladivostok) from next year, the Arctic Ocean Northern Sea Route (NSR) will be operated year-round. The Trans-Siberian Railway is being expanded to include a north-south route connecting the NSR with China and other countries. On the eve of Putin’s visit to Beijing, mutual visa-free group tourist trips between China and Russia were resumed. Although Russia is generally wary of Chinese expansion into Siberia, in light of the new international environment it has clearly strengthened its resolve to live within China’s orbit.

In a map published in late August, Beijing showed as its own territory the entire island of Greater Ussuri, which China and Russia agreed to divide equally into east and west parts in 2004. At present, Russia cannot raise any objections on this matter. The island has strategic importance at the mouth of the Amur and Ussuri Rivers.

However, China is not a bad partner for Russia. Xi and Putin completed their speeches at the forum in the morning and held a three-hour summit in the afternoon, during which Xi Jinping addressed Putin as “my old friend.” Is there any other country today that treats the Russian president so generously?

So, what was discussed at the Sino-Russian summit? The most important topics appear to have been the rapidly changing situation around Palestine and strategic cooperation between China and Russia with an eye toward the United States.

Both leaders focused on economic policy in their speeches at the forum. According to the Chinese Foreign Ministry, economic and multilateral cooperation issues, including the expansion of BRICS, were discussed at the summit. However, shortly afterwards, at a press conference, Putin said that he had discussed Ukraine and Gaza issues in detail with Xi Jinping. It is believed that both sides are coordinating their global strategies to deal with these two critical issues.

Immediately after these discussions, on October 19, China’s international activity in the Middle East became more pronounced. Xi met with the Egyptian prime minister and advocated a solution to the Palestine problem through a “two-state plan” that would make Palestine independent, as well as increase Beijing’s cooperation with Arab countries. China’s Special Envoy for the Middle East, Zhai Junyi and Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov held talks in Doha (Qatar). According to China’s State media outlet Xinhua, the root cause of the conflict is not Hamas’ terrorist attacks, but the failure to guarantee the legitimate national rights of the Palestinian people, and that China is working with Russia to resolve the issue. China expressed its intention to join Russia’s active position in proposing a UN resolution on the Gaza issue.

Meanwhile, Xi Jinping is attending the APEC 2023 forum, which has just begun and is being held in San Francisco. He is due to meet the US President on Wednesday (November 15). Will Beijing find it necessary to compromise with the United States?

In fact, the Xi administration is now moving in exactly the opposite direction. The Gaza issue has many important political aspects not only for Russia, but also for China’s global strategy. Unlike the military conflict in Ukraine, where the West supports the supposedly weak side, in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict the United States firmly supports Israel, which is considered a strong party in the Middle East. However, for the Arab world, Israel is a symbol of colonialism imposed on the Palestinians by the West, which was unable to resolve the Jewish question on its own. Moreover, opposition to Israel, which has been roundly criticized for killing Palestinian civilians in Gaza, is increasingly spreading to many developing countries. There is a growing sense in the global south that the United States is losing moral conscience.

Overall, the Middle East has recently become a key location in China’s global strategy. The Belt & Road Initiative has generally been well received in Central Asia and Africa. If China can effectively penetrate the Middle East and promote the BRI in the region, it will be able to connect its two most important zones of influence. This would allow China to divide the Western sphere of influence into zones in Europe and the Indo-Pacific region.

China would like to see much more active cooperation with oil-producing countries in the Middle East, such as Saudi Arabia, which are strengthening their autonomy vis-à-vis the United States. In addition, it is encouraging for Beijing that Russia has recently been increasing its presence in West Africa.

However, there is a certain amount of irony in the fact that China, which strongly claims that Taiwan is part of China, advocates Palestinian independence. There is a possibility that the United States will use this example to criticize China as having double standards. The United States has said it will treat Russia as a full participant at the APEC summit, with the Russian delegation being lead by Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk. “He’s being treated as the head of delegation, and he’ll have the opportunity to participate fully in the week’s events,” Matt Murray, the State Department official in charge of APEC, has stated. Overchuk is under a variety of Western sanctions including from the European Union but is not specifically under US sanctions.

That said, the Russian position as concerns the Middle East appears already set in stone and aligned with China’s. Xi’s diplomacy and ingenuity in dealing with US President Biden therefore remains the key event.

Source: Silkroad Briefing

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AKIPRESS.COM – Uzbekistan comes up with a number of proposals to expand cooperation between SCO member states in transport, Prime Minister of Uzbekistan Abdulla Aripov said at the 22nd meeting of the Council of Heads of Government of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization countries on October 26 in Bishkek.

He recalled that the President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev called the SCO region a space of enormous economic opportunities, as well as a platform and resource base for the development of all countries of the association during SCO Summit in July.

The Prime Minister of Uzbekistan then suggested strengthening transport and communication ties in the SCO region.

He noted active promotion of projects for development of North-South and East-West highways. According to Abdulla Aripov, start of construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway is particularly important.

“We stand for increasing multimodal transport along this route, as well as through Afghanistan in the direction of the ports of Iran and Pakistan,” Prime Minister Aripov said.

Implementation of such projects will reduce transport costs of the countries of the region by a third.

The Uzbek government also proposed developing a unified map of transport connectivity among the SCO member states.

Abdulla Aripov expressed hope these issues will be considered on November 1 in Tashkent within the framework of the first SCO Transport Forum.

Source: Akipress

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Belt and Road link to Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan has been delayed by cost debate

TOKYO — Chinese Premier Li Qiang called for accelerated cooperation on a planned international railway linking China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan during a visit to the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek on Wednesday, Russian and Chinese state media reported.

China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan reached a basic agreement in September 2022 on an international railway connecting the three countries. Construction was expected to begin this fall, but China reportedly decided to postpone the project due to differences over construction cost sharing.

With a struggling economy, Kyrgyzstan is unable to bear the huge expense of the project. The country already has significant external debt after receiving massive aid loans from China. Constructing the new railway could increase its reliance on Beijing.

The planned railway, part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, would have a total length of 454 kilometers and is expected to cost $3 billion to $6 billion.

It is part of China’s outreach to resource-rich Central Asia, a region long under Russian influence that is seeking to improve its connections with the global economy.

The primary overland route from China through Central Asia to Europe and the Arabian Sea now runs mostly through Kazakhstan. Achieving rail transport through Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan would help increase transport volume and contribute to the development of routes that avoid Russia.

Li is on an official visit to Kyrgyzstan this week and met with the country’s Prime Minister Akylbek Japarov on Wednesday. On Thursday, he will attend a leaders’ meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, whose members include China, Russia and Central Asian countries.

Source: Nikkei Asia

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On September 9, 2023, during the G20 meeting in New Delhi, the governments of seven countries and the European Union signed a memorandum of understanding to create an India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor. Only three of the countries (India, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates or the UAE) would be directly part of this corridor, which was to begin in India, go through the Gulf, and terminate in Greece. The European countries (France, Germany, and Italy) as well as the European Union joined this endeavor because they expected the IMEC to be a trade route for their goods to go to India and for them to access Indian goods at, what they hoped would be, a reduced cost.

The United States, which was one of the initiators of the IMEC, pushed it as a means to both isolate China and Iran as well as to hasten the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. It seemed like a perfect instrument for Washington: sequester China and Iran, bring Israel and Saudi Arabia together, and deepen ties with India that seemed to have been weakened by India’s reluctance to join the United States in its policy regarding Russia.

Israel’s war on the Palestinians in Gaza has changed the entire equation and stalled the IMEC. It is now inconceivable for Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to enter such a project with the Israelis. Public opinion in the Arab world is red-hot, with inflamed anger at the indiscriminate bombardment by Israel and the catastrophic loss of civilian life. Regional countries with close relations with Israel—such as Jordan and Turkey—have had to harden their rhetoric against Israel. In the short term, at least, it is impossible to imagine the implementation of the IMEC.

Pivot to Asia

Two years before China inaugurated its “One Belt, One Road” or Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the United States had already planned a private-sector-funded trade route to link India to Europe and to tighten the links between Washington and New Delhi. In 2011, then U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton gave a speech in Chennai, India, where she spoke of the creation of a New Silk Road that would run from India through Pakistan and into Central Asia. This new “international web and network of economic and transit connections” would be an instrument for the United States to create a new intergovernmental forum and a “free trade zone” in which the United States would be a member (in much the same way as the United States is part of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation or APEC).

The New Silk Road was part of a wider “pivot to Asia,” as U.S. President Barack Obama put it. This “pivot” was designed to check the rise of China and to prevent its influence in Asia. Clinton’s articlein Foreign Policy (“America’s Pacific Century,” October 11, 2011) suggested that this New Silk Road was not antagonistic to China. However, this rhetoric of the “pivot” came alongside the U.S. military’s new AirSea Battle concept that was designed around direct conflict between the United States and China (the concept built on a 1999 Pentagon study called “Asia 2025” which noted that “the threats are in Asia”).

Two years later, the Chinese government said that it would build a massive infrastructure and trade project called “One Belt, One Road,” which would later be called the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Over the next ten years, from 2013 to 2023, the BRI investments totaled $1.04 trillion spread out over 148 countries (three-quarters of the countries in the world). In this short period, the BRI project has made a considerable mark on the world, particularly on the poorer nations of Africa, Asia, and Latin America, where the BRI has made investments to build infrastructure and industry.

Chastened by the growth of the BRI, the United States attempted to block it through various instruments: the América Crece for Latin America and the Millennium Challenge Corporation for South Asia. The weakness in these attempts was that both relied upon funding from an unenthusiastic private sector.

Complications of the IMEC

Even before the Israeli bombardment of Gaza, IMEC faced several serious challenges.

First, the attempt to isolate China appeared illusory, given that the main Greek port in the corridor—at Piraeus—is managed by the China Ocean Shipping Corporation, and that the Dubai Ports have considerable investment from China’s Ningbo-Zhoushan port and the Zhejiang Seaport. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are now members of the BRICS+, and both countries are participants in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

Second, the entire IMEC process is reliant upon private-sector funding. The Adani Group—which has close ties to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and has come under the spotlight for fraudulent practices—already owns the Mundra port (Gujarat, India) and the Haifa port (Israel), and seeks to take a share in the port at Piraeus. In other words, the IMEC corridor is providing geopolitical cover for Adani’s investments from Greece to Gujarat.

Third, the sea lane between Haifa and Piraeus would go through waters contested between Turkey and Greece. This “Aegean Dispute” has provoked the Turkish government to threaten war if Greece goes through with its designs.

Fourth, the entire project relied upon the “normalization” between Saudi Arabia and Israel, an extension of the Abraham Accords that drew Bahrain, Morocco, and the United Arab Emirates to recognize Israel in August 2020. In July 2022, India, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States formed the I2U2 Group, with the intention, among other things, to “modernize infrastructure” and to “advance low-carbon development pathways” through “private enterprise partnerships.” This was the precursor of IMEC. Neither “normalization” with Saudi Arabia nor advancement of the I2U2 process between the UAE and Israel seem possible in this climate. Israel’s bombardment of the Palestinians in Gaza has frozen this process.

Previous Indian trade route projects, such as the International North-South Trade Corridor (with India, Iran, and Russia) and the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor (led by India and Japan), have not gone from paper to port for a host of reasons. These, at least, had the merit of being viable. IMEC will suffer the same fate as these corridors, to some extent due to Israel’s bombing of Gaza but also due to Washington’s fantasy that it can “defeat” China in an economic war.

Source:Counter Punch

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The international transport corridor “Tajikistan-Europe” will be expanded. The initiative for the implementation of the “Crossroads of the World” project was announced at the IV International Tbilisi Silk Road Forum, which concluded in the capital of Georgia.

The project envisions the development of connections between Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Iran. This means that the Silk Road, which once passed through the North Caucasus, will now be connected to the South Caucasus hub.

“In this way, another node is added to the multimodal corridor ‘China – Tajikistan – Uzbekistan – Turkmenistan – Iran – Turkey – Europe’,” said Rahmiddin Salomzoda, the head of the Ministry of Transport of the Republic of Tajikistan.

“Crossroads of the World” project envisions the development of connections between Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Iran. This means that the Silk Road, which once passed through the North Caucasus, will now be connected to the South Caucasus hub. The multimodal corridor through ‘China – Tajikistan – Uzbekistan – Turkmenistan – Iran – Turkey – Europe’.

During the negotiations that took place in May 2023 between the leaders of Turkmenistan and Tajikistan, Serdar Berdymukhamedov and Emomali Rahmon, the transportation sector was identified as a priority for bilateral cooperation. In this context, the importance of enhancing efficiency and establishing new international transport corridors, including the multimodal “China – Tajikistan – Uzbekistan – Turkmenistan – Iran – Turkey” corridor, was emphasized.

The IV International Tbilisi Silk Road Forum was held under the slogan “Connecting Today Resilient Tomorrow” with the participation of approximately two thousand delegates from 60 countries worldwide. Among them there were representatives from the public and private sectors, international organizations from Central Asia, the Persian Gulf, the United States, and China, as well as experts and journalists.

They discussed matters related to expanding economic cooperation, specifically the creation of a new East-West trade architecture, the improvement of international transport corridors, and the attraction of investments for a sustainable future.

Source : Orient

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