Toronto, Frankfurt (2/11 – 42)

World media are jumping all over the conflagration in Gaza following the 7 October attack, killing 1400 Israelis and kidnapping several hundred others – followed by an all-too-predictable retaliatory response from Israel, with indiscriminate bombardment and gunfire into Gaza. The number dead and injured in the Palestinian zone will likely never be known but it is currently estimated at over 5,000 – many of whom are women and children caught in the crossfire.

Is Hamas sorry about those who voted for them and support their cause being machine-gunned or trapped by crumbling concrete in a bombed building? Not at all – for them it’s just the cost of doing business.

What do the neighbors across the region say? As a matter of fact, the timing of the bloody 7 October attack was quite apt.

It was just three weeks ago that the “Abraham Accords”, an agreement  that would have “normalized” relations between Israel and several states of the Arabian Peninsula, complete with exchanges of ambassadors and new relations, were about to be signed. This landmark deal would have been followed by North African Islamic nations joining up. Precisely before the October 7 Hamas terror attack, normalization talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel were set to go. That hopeful move is gone with the wind.

That declaration of co-existence must have deeply displeased Hamas, Hezbollah, ISIS and the other murderous bandit gangs. They would clearly have been cut out of the deal. (Kindergarten Lesson One: “Follow the Money”)

Meanwhile, back in Tel Aviv, the fearsome Netanyahu was set to appear in court and face criminal charges that could have seen him in the cooler for quite a while. That trial has also been set aside. A survey shows that 80% of the Israeli public puts the blame for the surprise attack on him, particularly as his government pointedly ignored multiple urgent warnings from Egypt that an attack was being prepared. Convenient, no?

Netanyahu: “This is our 9/11 moment.” Truer words were never spoken. And just like the exceedingly suspicious collapse of two huge (and hugely unpopular) office buildings in downtown Manhattan, purportedly after being slammed into by jetliners, the 7 October attack is looking more and more like a false flag – something to give Israel the excuse the finish the job in Gaza.

Cut to the airport in Riyadh. A group is hurrying along.

A British reporter waylays a Saudi government minister. (You have to feel sorry for these guys – bodyguards blithely bump them out of the way … an expensive woman companion might give them a cat-scratch or snatch the microphone out of their hands … their target might just ignore them completely, or glower and growl “No comment, creep”)

Luckily for this journalist, the Saudi – young-looking for a Minister, and quite fluent in English – is eloquent and to the point.

Roving Reporter: “Can I just ask you… What is the first thing that has to happen, to achieve peace, in your view?”

Saudi Minister: “Right now we need a ceasefire.”

Roving Reporter: “Beyond that – “

Saudi Minister: “We have to restart the peace process.”

Roving Reporter: “Is that possible?”

Saudi Minister: “It has to be possible. If we are not willing to overcome all the difficulties, all the challenges, all the history that is involved in this issue, then we will never have a real peace and security in the region, so we must restart the peace process. The Arabs have shown that they are serious, they are willing to engage. We hope that we can do it soon.”

Dear Reader – studying this historical tragedy, do you not get the sensation that the “Arab world”, such as it is, really finds the Palestinians a monumental annoyance, deranged relatives anxious to drag all of them into a no-win military confrontation? (Everybody has an eye on those 200 Israeli nuclear weapons tucked away in a Negev Desert “research facility”.)

Of course it is necessary to offer deep and sincere vocal support to Palestine, which was deeply wronged some 70 years ago. Who wronged them? Hmm, how about the same perfidious colonialists whose meddling wreaked tragedy in Nigeria, Malaysia, Kenya, India and on and on… Yes, John Bull did it. The Brits “set aside” a land for the persecuted Jews, land that happened to have been occupied for hundreds of years by farmers and herdsmen known as Palestinians. Just like Malaysia or Iraq or Pakistan: they bottled up enemy peoples in the same artificially-demarcated country, grab the resources and piss off. Thanks Olde Blighty.

Israel is a reality. Most countries in the world accept that as a fact. It may have been built on stolen land but so was the United States of America, Canada, Japan (ask the Ainu), People’s Republic of China (poor Tibetans), Australia (aborigines nod sorrowfully) and many others, if you reach far enough back into history. Israel, the reality, is not going away. Hamas, the troublemaking terror gang, may have picked up some neat tricks from the Israelis (BOOM goes the King David Hotel, brought down by future Israeli statesmen).

But times change. Nobody else wants this war. The Arabs are by and large interested in getting by in life, minding their own business and avoiding trouble. Even Iran, fingered as a troublemaker by Uncle Sam, doesn’t want war – especially nuclear war. Nobody wins then.

Hamas? Nuclear war? Bring it on. They are maniacs, as all the neighbors are fully aware. But this seems to be a festive age around the planet for such manias, even among the throngs of “useful idiots” parading through Europe, Australia and North America waving Palestinian flags. Ask those entitled kids whether they support the annihilation of Israel. Then they get coy and the weasel-words flow freely.

The post What is to be done with Gaza appeared first on Tashkent Citizen.

Toronto, Atlanta (28/11 – 20)

A wise old expression intones “Behind every bad borrower is a bad lender”. Like many such cute, amusing aphorisms, it is accurate as far as it goes … but what if?

What if a loan approval is held up, then granted, after a couple of phone calls from the office of the Vice President? What if the borrower is a crony or relative of Mr. Big, which is what practically bankrupted Indonesia, when the Soeharto vampire children took out multi-hundred-million-dollar “loans” (wink wink) for projects whose profit-making potential was near zero?

What is the potential borrower tells you that he knows your daughter is in medical school, and implies a carrot-or-stick reaction to the granting of a loan, plausible or implausible? Will she suddenly be framed for a narcotics charge? Will she simply disappear one lonely night? Or will she be graciously accepted into one of the finest, most expensive clinics in the land, as a junior physician? Depends on that loan approval, buddy.

Magnify this to a national or global level. Nations grant loans often contingent, in an implied or explicit fashion, on the recipient purchasing from them. A “defense loan” or “grant” from the USA may hinge on the purchase of overpriced, maintenance-intensive, soon-obsolete weaponry which may or may not work: the military-industrial complex is concerned with profits, not effectiveness.

Take the Lockheed F-104. Go ahead, take one. (Nobody else wants them.) How many pilots in Occupied Germany, oh sorry, the Federal Republic of Germany have come to grief in the stubby-winged fighter jet? Here, don’t bother, Bing will save you the trouble: “According to the International F-104 Society, Germany lost 292 of its 916 F-104 Starfighters and 116 pilots from 1961 to 1989. The high accident rate of the F-104 earned it the nickname ‘Witwenmacher’ or ‘widowmaker’ from the German public.”

Would you buy a car with an accident history like that? Maybe if the terms were great, and Lockheed, in league with Uncle Sam, undoubtedly offered terrific E-Z Time Payments to the German Government to buy those sweet fighters. The widows may moan and bawl but for the big fellows in industry and government, it’s “…just doing business…” Killing Germans was never such a big bother for them, either.

Flash-forward to Century 21.

The West is [mock]-outraged that the People’s Republic of China has followed the model, diverting some of those trillions of chancy fiat dollars, a tsunami of wealth following the Reagan-era offshoring of American manufacturing to the Middle Kingdom (with the added bonus of deindustrializing the USA), into developing countries for infrastructure projects, through its “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI), also known as “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR).

The global development strategy was initiated by the Chinese government in 2013 for infrastructure projects, ideally promoting their concept of “economic cooperation” with raggedy-ass, flat-broke countries across Asia, Europe, and Africa.

Why would Communist China do that, apart from the urgent need to unload its trillions before the pranksters in Washington suddenly drastically devalue the American Rupee? (PROTIP: Your dollars will suddenly and magically become worthless museum pieces, like their Zimbabwe counterparts, when their trillions of debt bite hard).

Well, because the People’s Republic of China wishes to extend a hand of friendship and cooperation to fellow developing nations, in a benevolent spirit of international harmony and global progress.

What’s that pouty face you’re making? You don’t believe? OK, try this: China gives loans to profligate deadbeats who can’t possibly pay them back, for projects ranging from borderline to worthless, with a smart ulterior motive on the part of the clever Orientals.

Borderline: The Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) in Kenya, funded and built by China for a cool $3.2 billion, with a second phase costing $1.5 billion. Built to connect the port city of Mombasa to the capital city of Nairobi, and later extended to Naivasha, it sort of made economic sense: get those chickens and veggies and fish to market in the capital more quickly and efficiently. Give tourists a nice train ride.

Yes, yes – but does that justify going into the hole for nearly US$ 4 billion? Sounds like a pack of roving gypsies buying a Lamborghini (as opposed to stealing one, which is their customary style), simply because the car dealer (holding too much inventory) agrees to a fifty-year time payment plan on the car.

The Kenyan deal clicks into a logical strategy when you consider that Mombasa would make a fine and dandy PLA naval base, complementing the one the Chinese already built on the coast of Djibouti.

Watch what happens when a fresh new Kenyan government comes whining and wringing their hands with “Sorry we weren’t the ones who agreed to the loan, and we can’t pay you back quite yet”. Just watch. Indonesia take note – those billions owed to the PRC will come due as well.

ÜBER-Worthless: tragic, desperate Sri Lanka, ripped apart by two decades plus of civil war, and nothing worthwhile to export – one of the “basket cases” famously described by Henry W.C. Kissinger. They don’t even have a decent sex trade to attract moneyed tourists, unlike Thailand or the Philippines.

When a reckless, desperate (& notoriously corrupt) government started to “print money” to cover deficits, inflation obediently followed, rocketing to 60 percent by June 2022. A Chatham House study: “Sri Lanka’s debt crisis was made, not in China, but in Colombo, and in the international (i.e. Western-dominated) financial markets.” Heard those lyrics before, Reader?

That brings us to the sad story of Hambantota Port, a narrative of political and economic incompetence, facilitated by lax governance and inadequate risk management on both sides. Repeatedly shot down by experts, with multiple feasibility studies showing Hambantota couldn’t compete with the thriving Port of Colombo, the largest in Sri Lanka, which also had plenty of potential for expansion.

What if I told you that former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, an emperor of corruption, conspired with the PRC to build it? Rajapaksa wanted political power, from reviving his home region and main political base, where the gigantic port was to be built. China, the only candidate to proffer a loan when all the other borrowers shied away, saw a way to a military and commercial foothold in the region, as the authorities trumpeted how they would deliver “the biggest port constructed on land in the 21st century”.

Well, the inevitable punch line: Hambantota fared so badly, mostly ignored by thousands of ships passing it by daily, that it eventually defaulted on its debts, and the Sri Lankan Government had little choice but to hand over 80% of the port’s ownership to China, as well as a large swathe of surrounding land on a 99 year-long lease. No non-Chinese allowed inside any longer, sorry.

Even if the “debt vultures” demanding full repayment are thwarted, and a deal with creditors is reached, Sri Lanka will still be burdened by a huge debt liability that can only be ‘serviced’ by cuts in the already low living standards of 22m Sri Lankans. The IMF has already indicated it will encourage austerity in Sri Lanka – reducing spending and increasing taxes. Sorry mama – no government-sponsored free milk or medical examinations for your baby. And we can’t fix that bridge that fell down, either.

It is reported that wild animals have begun to creep into the abandoned structures at Hambantota Port, seeking burrows and nests in the lonely, unused infrastructure. Hey, maybe the facility can be repurposed as a “Hambantota Wildlife Refuge”, and attract tourists that way.

The post When Corrupt Politicians Waltz into the Debt Trap appeared first on Tashkent Citizen.

Two former champions are showing their strength, as New Zealand and South Africa are through to the 2023 Rugby World Cup semifinals, at the expense of the two best teams in the world. New Zealand and South Africa – the pair ruining Ireland and France’s dreams of becoming a new champion in this tournament. Ireland and France tried their best, but the pedigree of New Zealand and South Africa as former champions could not be denied.

On Saturday at Stade de France, Saint-Denis, three-time champions New Zealand prolonged Ireland’s quarter-finals curse. Before this year’s tournament, Ireland had never been able to get through to the semifinals. Andy Farrell’s team looked unbeatable as they cruised past the pool stage with a total of 17 successive victories since last year. The world number one must be thinking that 2023 would be their year.

On the other hand, New Zealand suffered humiliation in their first pool stage match when they were defeated 13-27 by France. But, New Zealand regrouped after that defeat and they showed what they were made of. In the quarter-finals, The All Blacks withstood three comebacks from Ireland.

The Irish, always on the backfoot, trailed 0-13 and 10-18 in the first half, and by 17-25 in the second half, before a penalty try made it a one-point contest with a little more than 15 minutes left. The All Blacks held out for an astonishing 37 phases in defence in a thrilling finale to their victory. The game ended 28-24 with New Zealand’s triumph.

“This was a special day for us. I’ve lost my voice. I think the world’s been talking about these two quarter-finals for two years,” said New Zealand’s Coach Ian Foster, mentioning the clash of the titans between France and South Africa in the other quarter-finals.

“Sometimes the sweetest victories are those when your opponent tests you to the limit. What an incredible finish to a Test match. It’s pretty clear defence won us the Test match,” said New Zealand’s Captain Sam Cane.

In the semifinal on 20 October also at Saint-Denis, New Zealand will face Argentina, who eliminated Wales 29-17 in the other quarter-finals on Saturday.

On Sunday, another blockbuster match that was worthy of the Final itself was contested between the world number two France and defending champion South Africa. The hosts’ hopes of winning a maiden Rugby World Cup title were crushed as South Africa won 29-28, in a nail-biting and spectacular contest at the Stade de France. None of them deserved to get knocked out, given the breathtaking display of rugby.

The Springboks withstood a Paris storm and trailed 19-22 at half-time. They twice came from behind with a try by Eben Etzebeth, as a Handre Pollard penalty sealed the narrowest of wins for the title holders.

“It was a hard game. We knew how tough it was going to be with the French team at home and honestly, I just want to say well done to them for what they’ve achieved and how hard they’ve worked,” said The Springboks captain Siya Kolisi.

“Credit to the French. We knew it was going to be this tight. I think everybody knew it was going to be a big battle. Two good teams and unfortunately, or fortunately for us, we were on the right side of things,” added Jacques Nienaber, South Africa’s Head Coach. In the last four on 21 October at the Stade de France, The Springboks will meet another former champion, England. England through to the semifinals, after a 30-24 win over Fiji.

The post The Pedigree of Champions; New Zealand and South Africa Through to the 2023 Rugby World Cup Semifinals, with Blockbuster Performance appeared first on Tashkent Citizen.

Central Asian consumer confidence ratios averaging 125.7 points, compared with 47.6 points in the European Union during September

A major macroeconomic survey on consumer confidence (CCI) in the Central Asian countries of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan has just been released by Freedom Finance Global, a listed financial analytical business in Astana.

Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, due to the relatively more closed nature of the country compared to other Central Asian republics, does not officially participate in the analysis, although we do provide data. Turkmenistan was not included in this survey due to the local difficulties of compiling consumer data.

Survey Methodology

This new research allows us to assess the dynamics of changes in the indicators, including consumer confidence, inflation assessment and expectations of the population on the dollar exchange rate. The main emphasis is placed on comparing the obtained data with official statistics on inflation (including for individual goods) and Central Bank surveys (if available in the regions).

The research is based on the methodology used for obtaining consumer confidence indices in many countries of the world and adapted to local tasks by specialists of the United Research Technologies Group. The method of data collection is a telephone survey. The survey questionnaire is localised: the survey is conducted in the native language of the respondents.

In Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, analysts collected 3,600 questionnaires per wave, in Kyrgyzstan at 1,600 and Tajikistan at 1,200 questionnaires per month, proportionate to the population of the countries under study. The sample in each country is constructed taking into account gender and age quotas in the regions where respondents live (representative by gender, age, income level and place of residence).

Kazakhstan

In August consumer confidence index of Kazakhstan citizens made 100.3 points, which is slightly lower than in July, but higher in formally positive value.

A noticeable decrease by 4.5 p.p. showed the assessment of favourable current conditions for large purchases: in August, only 38.6% of respondents assessed the situation positively, in July this figure was higher 40.7%. Kazakhstanis assessed the possibility of current and future changes in the personal financial situation slightly lower, but this parameter continues to outpace assessments of the economic situation as a whole. It is worth noting the best result for six months on the indicator of the level of expectations of the economic situation in the future. In August, the share of those who expect the economy to deteriorate within five years decreased from 16.9% to 14.8%.

In August, annual inflation expectedly continued its decline to 13.1%. Inflation expectations of respondents also fell, as well as the assessment it fell even more significantly and showed the lowest result for the entire period of the survey, despite the growing expectations of weakening of tenge against the dollar.

Dynamics of inflation expectations of Kazakhstan citizens in the polls of the National Bank of Kazakhstan and the conducted research is contradictory. The share of respondents expecting strong price growth within one and 12 months decreased by 0.9 and 0.6 p.p., respectively.

According to the National Bank’s research, the number of such respondents increased by 2.1 and 6 p.p., which indicates a significant increase in inflation expectations. The same multidirectional dynamics can be seen in the assessment of current inflation.

Most likely, the reason for the discrepancy lies in the sample of respondents: our survey included both urban and rural residents, while in the National Bank’s survey only urban residents. Therefore, there is a difference in the list of goods and services, which, according to respondents, have increased in price. Our respondents are still concerned about the rise in food prices, while those surveyed by the National Bank especially note the high cost of non-food products and paid services.

In August, monthly inflation was 0.7% slightly higher than in the previous three months. But if we look at the structure, we can trace the absence of average price growth for food products. What cannot be said about paid services they showed intensive price growth of 1.9% mom, which is much higher than the monthly average from January to June 0.8% mom. Most likely, this is the reason for the multidirectional dynamics between the two surveys.

If we consider individual goods and services, we can say that the results of the survey are similar to the data of official statistics on inflation. Respondents naturally noticed a seasonal decrease in prices for fruits and vegetables, as well as a monthly drop in prices for household chemicals, sugar, salt and vegetable oil. The share of those who believe that prices for bread and bakery products, confectionery and milk have increased the most has also noticeably decreased. It should be noted that a slowdown in growth rates can be traced for these products relative to the average value of the previous six months.

Among 22 goods and services, for which Kazakhstanis are least likely to notice a rapid rise in prices, only two commodities stand out, showing an acceleration in growth rates. But in fact, it is rather technical, as prices for vegetable oil earlier fell more slowly. The cost of eggs, although they rose in August, fell by an average of 1.1% each month for the previous six months.

On the other hand, people began to notice the rapid growth of prices for clothes and shoes their share rose from 10.3% to 11.7%, while the price increase in August for these goods amounted to 1% against an average of 0.88% in the previous six months.

In the survey of the National Bank, we also note a change in the perception of price increases for the following goods: fruits and vegetables (the share of those who noted a strong increase increased by 21.6 p.p.), milk (down by 19 p.p.) and housing and utilities services (down by 18.7 p.p.). Taking into account a slight increase in milk prices by 0.4% against the average 1.3% for the period from January to July and a drop in prices for fruits and vegetables by 2.1%, such dynamics is reasonable. But at the same time, housing and communal services officially rose in price by 3% in August. Such a strong growth over the past five years was observed only in September 2022.

Monthly dynamics in the two studies among the 30 goods examined was the same for 20 items. Particularly significant differences can be noted for housing and utilities services, cereals and pasta (despite the slowdown in price growth), electronics and household appliances.

Respondents continue to note the increased prices for housing and utilities services the share of such people increased from 12.1% to 12.8%. Taking into account the inertia and delay in receipt of receipts, it is likely to be expected that the share of those noticing a strong increase in prices for housing and utilities services will remain the same. The situation is the opposite for AI-95 petrol. Due to the fact that the brand is not the most popular, the price growth did not particularly affect the share, which decreased from 14.4% to 12.3%. The same situation in the survey of the National Bank, where the share decreased even more significantly: from 20.5 to 12.9%. The growth of AI-95 petrol prices was 3.9% mom amid shortages in the southern regions.

August showed that Kazakhstanis began to worry more about the dollar exchange rate. The share of those who believe that the rate will rise in a year rose from 52.2% to 54.7%. The share of respondents, expecting dollar growth during the month has significantly increased: from 26.6 to 34%. All this was a consequence of a sharp increase in the volatility of the exchange rate in August. Nevertheless, expectations of dollar growth did not transform into inflation expectations of respondents. But the following questions remain open is this phenomenon temporary and will we see an increase in inflation expectations in September?

Uzbekistan

The consumer confidence index in Uzbekistan was 136.4 points, which indicates a monthly growth of 2.3 p.p. Also, as in the case of Kazakhstan, we can notice a deterioration in assessments and forecasts of personal financial situation and a parallel improvement in assessments and forecasts of the country’s economic situation. Although the Uzbeks, unlike their northern neighbours, gave a more positive assessment of the favourable conditions for large purchases.

While in July the greatest optimism among all components of the satisfaction index was evoked by the indicator of expectations of changes in personal financial situation, in August the sub-index on expectations of the economic situation in the long term took the palm of superiority.

The share of people who believe that their financial situation will significantly improve has sharply decreased from 50.6% to 40.7%. But if the answer “will improve a little” is taken into account, the overall positive result fell slightly: from 71.9 to 70%. Estimates of changes in personal well-being over the last year have also declined, but not so noticeably. In July there were 25.5% of people who noted a significant improvement in this component, and in August their share dropped to 21.5%.

In July, 52.7% of respondents thought that the economic situation in five years will be good, and in August the share of respondents with a positive forecast rose to 58.8%. The situation with the annual forecast is similar: the number of optimists increased sharply from 46 to 55.2%. The number of respondents who said that the situation will significantly improve has not increased significantly over the past year: in August, 21.3% of respondents said so, which is 0.1% higher than in July.

Annual inflation in Uzbekistan in August remained virtually unchanged at 8.96% against 8.94% in July. This indicator is one of the lowest for the last seven years. Over the month, prices rose by 0.54% on average, while inflation expectations of Uzbeks showed a decline.

The share of those expecting strong price growth during the month fell from 20.3% to 17.2%, and during the year from 33.2% to 29.2%. The proportion of respondents who highly estimate price growth over the past year also decreased significantly: from 46.3 to 42.7%, while in the assessment for the month people rather expressed the opposite opinion.

The percentage of those who noticed a perceptible increase in cost over the month rose from 24.3% to 25.4%, which is probably due to July’s monthly deflation of 0.2%. In August, the price increase was already by 0.54%.

In terms of assessing the cost of individual products, the leaders are still meat and poultry: 61.3% of residents noticed an increase in prices for this commodity. Official statistics indicates an increase in the cost of beef (15%), mutton (14%) and poultry (22%). About 30% of respondents chose the following goods: vegetables and fruits, medicines, construction materials, petrol, sugar, salt and vegetable oil.

According to the Agency of Statistics under the President of Uzbekistan, today we see an acceleration of the annual growth of petrol prices over the month they increased by 2.2 p.p., and medicines and medical products by 0.8 p.p. On the other hand, prices for sunflower oil decreased by 19.1% over the last year, and sugar prices increased by only 3.9%, but residents still note the prices for these goods as one of the fastest growing.

On the similar issue of price growth for individual goods and services, the results of the Central Bank of Uzbekistan and Freedom Finance Global surveys were quite similar. Uzbeks noted strong price increases for meat and milk (45%), petrol and fuel (40%), construction materials (33%), footwear and clothing (29%), fruit and vegetables (25%), medicines (25%), eggs (23%), and sugar and chocolate (23%).

On 10 August, the dollar-to-sum exchange rate rose sharply by 3.5% in one day: from 11,667 to 12,075 soum per $1. This situation probably led to a sharp increase in the number of residents who could not answer the question about the change in the dollar exchange rate. At the expense of this, the share of those who now expect the weakening of the soum has paradoxically decreased: from 54.8 to 47.4% in the horizon of a month and from 69.5 to 62.7% in the horizon of a year. The number of optimists who expected the soum to strengthen against the dollar decreased from 8.1 to 6.1% in the month horizon and from 6.5 to 5.9% in the 12-month horizon.

Kyrgyzstan

In Kyrgyzstan, the consumer confidence index stood at 125.4 points, down slightly from July. The fall can be seen in all six sub-indices. The assessment of the current economic situation decreased most strongly by 3.1 points. Expectations of personal financial situation within a year and economic situation within five years have also noticeably worsened by 3 points.

If in July 29.1% of Kyrgyz people assessed the changes in the economy over the past 12 months very positively, in August the share of such people decreased to 25.8%, while the number of pessimists increased from 8.8 to 10.8%.

If we talk about economic expectations within five years, the decrease in the share of such respondents was only 0.2 p.p., but the main change was a decrease in the percentage of cautious optimists from 15.9 to 13.3%. The situation is similar in the issue of expectations of personal financial situation. If the drop in the share of those expecting a significant improvement was 1 p.p., the share of those expecting a slight improvement fell more significantly: by 2 p.p. In general, the sub-indices of Kyrgyzstan showed the most noticeable decline by 3-3.1 points.

Estimates and forecasts of inflation in Kyrgyzstan slightly increased compared to July indicators. Thus, expectations for strong price growth increased by 0.8 p.p. within a month and by 0.5 p.p. within 12 months. Also, the share of those who believe that over the past year prices have grown faster than before has increased by 0.3 p.p. But in the assessment of strong price growth over the last month there is a slight decrease in the share of respondents: from 40 to 39.1%. Annual inflation in Kyrgyzstan continued to decline: from 10.3 to 9.5% in August. It was due to the seasonal fall in fruit prices: by 13.3%. Non-food inflation in Kyrgyzstan remains high and reached 14.6% in August against 14.1% in July and 10.9% 12 months ago.

Among individual goods and services, residents note a strong increase in prices for vegetable oil (56%), fruits and vegetables (54%), cereals and pasta (49%), sugar and salt (48%), meat and poultry (+46%). It can be seen that Kyrgyz people are more concerned about food than non-food products, although official statistics partially disagrees with the opinion of residents, given the 13.3% decrease in the cost of fruit in August. Nevertheless, the annual growth of prices for vegetables continues to remain at 18.2%, having decreased only by 0.6 p.p. in comparison with July. In addition, fruit prices rose so strongly in July (+19.6% mom) that it still influences the opinion of residents.

On the other hand, the prices for bread, cereals and meat on average increased only by 6.7% and 5.5% over the last 12 months, which clearly contradicts the survey results. Although the same rice has increased in price from 86.2 to 142.8 som on average over the last year. Strong growth in the cost of rice is also observed in the rest of Central Asia. Among non-food items, Kyrgyzstani people (20.1%) noticed the most increase in prices for fuels and lubricants, which is not surprising given the 5.5% increase in the price of AI-92 petrol during August.

In August, expectations for weakening of the KGS exchange rate against the dollar changed insignificantly. The share of respondents expecting the dollar to grow during the month increased from 16.7 to 17.6%, and in the horizon of one year such people, on the contrary, became less: from 29.2% in July to 28.8% in August. In general, the dollar appreciated by only 0.5% against the som during August, unlike in Kazakhstan or Uzbekistan, where the weakening of the national currency was more noticeable. Consequently, the devaluation sentiment of Kyrgyz citizens expectedly remained virtually unchanged.

Tajikistan

Consumer confidence index in Tajikistan in August totalled 140.8 points, having significantly increased compared to July, when the first indicator was 134.5 points. In general, all sub-indices, except for the assessment of favourable conditions for large purchases, showed growth.

The assessment of the current economic situation grew most significantly by 14.1 points. Also, the index of expectations for changes in personal financial situation during the year increased by 11.2 points and the assessment of personal financial situation increased by 7.4 points.

In August, the share of respondents who noted the improvement of the economy over the last year increased sharply: from 40.1 to 54.4%. This increase was possible due to a decrease in the share of cautious optimists and neutral respondents. Also, the share of people expecting a significant improvement in their personal financial situation during the year increased significantly: from 36.8% to 46.7%. However, the share of residents who believe that their financial situation improved in August increased insignificantly: from 24.6 to 31.1%.

Inflationary assessments of Tajikistanis have sharply increased compared to July. Thus, the share of those who noticed a very strong rise in prices over the last month rose from 21 to 34.9%, and in the last 12 months from 26.4 to 37.4%. Inflation data for August are not yet available, but annual inflation in Tajikistan fell from 2.4% in June to 2.3% in July. It is still unclear why August’s sharp rise in inflation occurred.

Tajikistanis note the strongest price growth for such goods as: fruits and vegetables (36.6% of respondents), vegetable oil (35%), bread and bakery products (30.4%), meat, poultry (25.8%), petrol (18%), cereals and pasta (17.7%).

For some goods, the official statistics partially coincides with the data obtained by Freedom Finance Global. For example, rice prices for 12 months rose by 58.4% on average, and the annual growth in fruit prices accelerated from 13.9% (June) to 23.2% (July). The magnitude of the price increase for vegetables also remains relatively large at 14.9%.

In general, the low inflation is rather a consequence of a significant reduction in the price of certain goods, such as flour or vegetable oil, which fell in price by 32% and 30% respectively. The decline in flour prices was made possible after the provision of tax and customs incentives, while the phenomenon of vegetable oil, which, despite such a strong fall, still occupies the leading positions, is probably due to the inertia of the residents’ perception.

In 2020, vegetable oil prices rose by as much as 42.3%, and by a further 20.8% in 2021. And even though there is a 10.6% drop in 2022, prices have risen by a cumulative 54% over these three years.

The expectations of Tajikistan’s residents regarding the exchange rate of the dollar to the somoni have changed slightly. The share of those who expect the national currency to weaken during the year increased from 27.4 to 29.6%, and in the horizon of one month such people became more from 20.4% in July to 20.6% in August. The exchange rate itself remained virtually unchanged over August, just below 11 somoni per $1.

Summary

Overall, the ranking of the four countries has not changed since July: Tajikistan has consolidated its leadership, while Kyrgyzstan has slightly narrowed the gap with Uzbekistan. Kazakhstan, on the other hand, continues to show the lowest score, remaining in the positive zone.

In August, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan showed an increase in consumer confidence, while the other two regional neighbours, on the contrary, showed a slight decline in the CCI index. According to the survey results, we noticed a synchronised decline in estimates and forecasts of personal financial situation in all countries except Tajikistan. However, in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan people are more positive about the prospects and current assessment of the economic situation.

Inflation expectations and assessments have noticeably decreased only in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. High inflation in previous months and its long-awaited reduction in the summer had a positive impact on the residents of these countries. However, respondents still note the growth of prices for some types of food products, some of which have actually increased.

Separate surveys of the central banks of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan indicate similarities in the aspect of goods and services that showed the largest price increases. Analysing Kazakhstan, we notice a difference between the National Bank’s surveys and ours in the issue of inflation estimates and expectations. This is probably due to differences in the sample of respondents and a one-time phenomenon when food prices on average showed no increase, while the cost of paid services rose sharply.

In Uzbekistan, on the other hand, annual inflation fell to a six-year low, and the population showed an increase in optimism on this issue. In Kyrgyzstan, inflation expectations and estimates have changed little, and the first indicators remain the lowest in the region. Most likely, the reason is that the country’s historical average inflation rate is relatively low, while the current inflation rate continues to decline and has reached 9.5%. In Tajikistan, data for August have not yet been released, but in July annual inflation was at a low level of 2.3%. The August survey showed a sharp increase in inflation estimates and expectations of Tajikistanis. Next month we may understand the reason for this phenomenon when the inflation data for August and the survey results for September are available.

The dollar’s appreciation in August on world markets affected only the tenge and Uzbek soum, while the exchange rates in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan changed little. Against the background of dollar growth in Kazakhstan and exchange rate volatility, more people began to expect weakening of the tenge. It should be noted that in Uzbekistan the effect was somewhat different: weakening of the sum caused an increase in the number of people who found it difficult to give an answer.

In Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, against the background of stable dynamics of the dollar exchange rate, the local population did not show a significant change in expectations to the dollar.

The second wave of the survey of consumer confidence of residents of four Central Asian countries provided an opportunity to compare indicators in dynamics, including together with official data.

One can notice similarities of varying degrees between the survey results and official statistics, Central Bank surveys and exchange rate dynamics. The next waves of the survey will complement the current picture and will be able to provide a more objective assessment, which may be useful for investors, businesses, government and monetary authorities in Central Asia.

Finally, it is interesting to note the consumer confidence points average 125.7 in the four Central Asian countries featured. This compares with 106.1 in the United States for August 2023 and 47.6 points in the EU during September 2023.

Source: Silkroad Briefing

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Derna is a second-tier city of roughly 100,000 people, situated in northeast Libya. Early dawn on Monday, September 11, two aging dams gave way, bursting and sending a seven-meter-high tsunami towards the city. Entire neighborhoods were washed into the sea. 

The dams failed after heavy rainfall hit the region, as Storm Daniel passed through. Before passing over Libya, a Storm Daniel landfall in Greece resulted in 15 fatalities, on September 4. The same storm also wreaked havoc in Turkey and even up in Bulgaria. At least five people were killed after a flash flood swept through their campsite in Turkey’s Kirklareli province. After passing through the Mediterranean Basin, Storm Daniel slammed into the northern coast of Libya on September 9.

Libyan authorities have sealed off the flood-devastated port city of Derna from civilians, to allow emergency aid workers to restore services, amid concern that standing water contamination could add to the already horrific death toll. The flooding left at least 11,000 dead, according to official projections.

Derna is historically prone to flooding, and inadequate dam reservoirs have resulted in five deadly floods since 1942, the latest of which was in 2011, according to a research paper published by Libya’s Sebha University last year.

The two dams that burst on Monday were built around half a century ago, between 1973 and 1977, by a Yugoslav construction company. The Derna dam was 75 meters high with a storage capacity of 18 million cubic meters. The second dam, Mansour, was 45 meters high, holding 1.5 million cubic meters. The dams have had no maintenance since 2002, the city’s deputy mayor Ahmed Madroud told Al Jazeera.

Experts explain how apart from the strong storm, the Derna catastrophe was greatly exacerbated by a lethal confluence of factors, including aging, crumbling infrastructure, inadequate warnings and the impact of an accelerating climate crisis. Scientists believe that climate change is augmenting the intensity of extreme weather events like storms. 

Warmer oceans provide fuel for storms to grow, and a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, meaning more extreme rainfall. Storms are becoming more ferocious because of climate change, said Hannah Cloke, professor of Hydrology at the University of Reading in the UK.

Meanwhile, Liz Stephens, Professor in Climate Risks and Resilience at the University of Reading in the United Kingdom, questioned the design standard of the dam and whether a risk of very extreme rainfall events had been taken into account. On the other hand, United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization Head Petteri Taalas expressed concern about the absence of alerts to warn citizens in Derna. Talaas added that the political instability in the country has impeded WMO efforts to work with the Libyan government to improve these systems.

This kind of catastrophe would have been much less likely during the Khaddafi regime, when huge sums of oil revenues were spent on modern infrastructure around the country. Libya was in the event too weak to resist the predations of NATO, eager to grab the oil, silver and gold that was to have backed a pan-African bank. Libya was the latest in a nation-smashing campaign that has brought misery to Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan and Jordan. Today the country is broken into warlord-ruled territories, and a much-degraded standard of living for the average Libyan.

On the other side of the world, Hong Kong and cities across southern China are also battling flooding initiated by the heaviest rains in over 140 years, after Saola and Haikui, two full-force typhoons, hit southern China – and resulted in a citywide shutdown in Hong Kong. The Hong Kong Observatory issued a red rainstorm warning on Friday evening, September 15, the second such alert in two days.

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Remediation work at legacy uranium mining sites in Uzbekistan is under way, bolstered by a €9 million grant from the Environmental Remediation Account for Central Asia (ERA)­ set up on the initiative of the European Union (EU) and managed by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). This is the second Central Asian state, where such remediation activity under the ERA is taking place.

The grant funds will support work to close the identified mine openings, demolish derelict facilities that were used for uranium ore processing, and to re-cultivate selected waste rock areas at the Yangiabad and Charkesar mines.

The former site is 75 km east of the country’s capital, Tashkent. It has seven mines spread across the mountainous terrain around the town of Yangiabad. Once remediated, this area, known locally as the Uzbek Alps, will be environmentally safe, allowing livelihoods and tourism to flourish.  

The Charkesar-2 mine site is 140 km east of Tashkent and 60 km to the west of the city Namangan in the Fergana Valley. The contaminated area of approximately 25 hectares contains 5 already remediated waste rock dumps and two abandoned mine shafts. The existing water diversion channels on site are dilapidated.

The ERA has now allocated funding to remediate five out of seven high priority sites in Central Asia (three of which are in the Kyrgyz Republic and two in Uzbekistan). As well as the mandatory remediation and demolition works, the ERA-supported activity will help prevent toxic material from dispersing into the river system across the Fergana Valley, home to more than 15 million people.

The ERA was set up in 2015 on the initiative of the EU and is managed by the EBRD. It addresses the legacy of Soviet-era uranium mining in Central Asia. The EU is the ERA’s biggest donor, while contributions have also been made by Belgium, Lithuania, Norway, Spain, Switzerland and the United States of America.

Source: EBRD

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The escalation of geopolitical tensions linked to the Ukrainian crisis has highlighted two main opposing camps of countries — an Alliance of Democracies on one side and a Group of Authoritarian Regimes on the other. A number of countries have resisted choosing sides, however, as they strive to balance their national interests with international developments while simultaneously advocating the need to maintain peaceful diplomacy and global connections.

While the number of these so-called “in-between” countries abound (particularly in Latin America, Africa, and South and Central Asia), only a few of them have upheld an outspoken commitment to the principles of multilateralism and non-violence. One of these is Kazakhstan, which, through its rhetoric and actions, has consistently demonstrated a commitment to international principles enshrined in the UN Charter despite severe challenges to the country’s economy and stability brought on by recent global developments. Impressively, Kazakhstan’s strong compliance with economic sanctions imposed by Western countries against Russia has stood the test of time.

Amid a slew of destabilizing events including a violent coup attempt in January 2022 and an ongoing international crisis embroiling its neighbor Russia, Kazakhstan has taken important steps towards strengthening democracy and stability at home such as limiting presidential powers, fighting oligopolies and recovering assets stolen from the country by cronies of the old regime. Kazakhstan has also maintained its commitments to Ukraine’s territorial integrity and has contributed to energy and food security in Europe.

Last year, in a public discussion with Vladimir Putin at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, President Tokayev made it very clear that his country remained committed to the UN principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity. “Kazakhstan recognizes neither Taiwan, nor Kosovo, nor South Ossetia and Abkhazia. This principle will be applied to quasi-state entities, which, in our opinion, are Luhansk and Donetsk,” the President sad. Such position of Kazakhstan has been vocal and proved by consistency in voting pattern on UN Ukraine-related resolutions.

Kazakhstan has taken important steps towards strengthening democracy and stability at home, such as limiting presidential powers, fighting oligopolies and recovering assets stolen from the country by cronies of the old regime.

Still, such persistent dedication to international democratic principles (by a relatively weaker country squeezed in a geopolitical triangle with two much-stronger neighbors, i.e. China and Russia) has not been enough to alter a seemingly entrenched negative opinion of Kazakhstan. With an especially strong viewpoint particularly in the West, under the banner of “human rights”, oligarchs can bait international NGOs and the media into believing their proxy political figures are victims of authoritarian abuse. When every decision taken by Kazakhstan courts against these local proxies is criticized, their oligarchic overlords gain enormous leverage at the expense of damaging Kazakhstan’s international credibility and reputation, as well as undermining its fledgling process of democracy building.

One such case involves a Kazakhstani citizen Zhanbolat Mamai, who was sentenced in September 2017 to a three-year suspended sentence for the theft and embezzlement of funds. Considered an independent journalist and a political activist, Mamai allegedly violated Kazakhstan’s law again and has been charged for insulting a government representative (under Kazakhstan’s Criminal Code, Article 378), spreading false information (under Article 274), and organizing illegal protests (under Article 488). Amnesty International has called this decision an “act of retribution” by the government. However, Amnesty’s coverage of the Mamai case tells only half the story.

Charged with illegal actions, Mamai has subsequently positioned himself as a persecuted human rights defender. He has received financial and political support from Mukhtar Ablyazov, who stole billions of dollars from a Kazakhstan bank and then fled the country. Ablyazov has already lost various court cases in the United States, Great Britain and France. Mamai has allegedly used Ablyazov’s money to run an unregistered political party called the Democratic Party of Kazakhstan.

Nonetheless, the above facets of the Mamai case are sometimes not taken into consideration by human rights organizations.

It is also worth noting that Mamai is not in prison (as stipulated by Articles 378 and 274) but has instead received a suspended sentence.

The fact that not all sides are taken into consideration is now facing a backlash in Kazakhstan. Local NGOs are questioning whether the motivations behind attacking Kazakhstan over these high[1]profile cases are truly about human rights. In the meantime, the government is implementing reforms to address the everyday concerns of Kazakhstani people, including protecting their social welfare, healthcare and financial prospects.

The difficult balancing act that Kazakhstan’s government is trying to manage in both its international and domestic affairs faces many challenges. But credit should be given where it’s due. In this environment, Western NGOs and media falling prey to tactics by the beneficiaries of the old Kazakhstan regime only hurt the country’s nascent democratization process and its efforts to break from authoritarianism and corruption still widespread elsewhere in Central Asia.

Luc Rodehefer is a foreign policy expert and a freelance financial analyst. A former banker, he is currently based in France and covers political and economic relations between the EU and emerging markets.

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You are not Forgotten.

Berlin, Brussels (2/5 – 40)

The Badakhshan Mountainous Autonomous Region (GBAO) is the largest region in Tajikistan in terms of area, but the least populated in terms of population. In May and June 2022, there were deadly outcomes after President Emomali Rahmon’s regime quelled the scene of protests.

According to his relatives, Ruslan Abutrobov was arrested from his home in Roshan, Vamar village on May 18 and taken to the police station. Ruslan’s relatives said, “He did not participate in demonstrations and was not a member of any group.” He never returned alive.

Ruslan spent every day with livestock and working the land. He had a simple life. On the day of the incident, he did not attend to the herd and was at home. “The police entered the house and took Ruslan with them. After a few hours, his mother found his body,” said one of his relatives who did not want to be named. The injuries were too graphic to explain according to a friend of the family.

Ruslan Abutrobov

1992 – 2022

Ruslan´s killers are still at large. The regime headed by Alisher Mirzanabatov, who is the current Governor of GBAO and former head of the region police and a close ally of the President Rahmon´s son, Rustam Rahmon, have not explained this crime against humanity.

Ruslan was reported died at the age of 30.

Source

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“Unleash Digital with Everything as a Service”, the second Huawei Cloud Summit Middle East & Africa brought government leaders, cloud native industry experts, and customer representatives together from the Middle East, Central Asia, and Africa with the aim of exploring how to optimise the cloud to boost the digital economy.

H.E. Zhang Yiming, the Chinese Ambassador to UAE, gave a keynote speech on the significance of cloud computing for the digital economy saying “China is poised to partner with the UAE and countries in the Middle East and Africa in their digital cloud journey. Together, we will revitalise the industry with innovation, expand pilot projects with partnerships, and promote technical advances with young minds. We will achieve technological and industry development centered on cloud computing, and pave the way for digital transformation and enablement.”

H.E. Zhang Yiming explains the significance of digital economy

Jacqueline Shi, President of Huawei Cloud Global Marketing and Sales Service shared updates about Huawei Cloud in the Middle East, and its belief in supporting the success of local customers and partners, as well as the companies that want to run businesses there. “We keep developing. We keep going digital. We want to share our latest technologies and proven experience in digitalization with you” said Shi.

Jacqueline Shi delivers her opening speech

Frank Dai, President of Huawei Cloud Middle East talked about digital transformation trends in the Middle East, and how Huawei Cloud can pave the way to digital success by providing technical innovation, expertise, and ecosystem support. Dai explained: “There is consensus that the cloud is the best way to accelerate digitalization. Our role is to help enterprises join, use and manage the cloud better so we can deal with challenges such as data security, ROI optimization, and new technology application.”

Frank Dai talks about digitalization in the Middle East

Huawei Cloud is committed to building a global startup ecosystem to empower 1,000 local startups to innovate and grow on Huawei Cloud over the next three years. Through three key initiatives — innovative cloud platform, entrepreneurship enablement, and business resources — Huawei Cloud will provide lifecycle support for startups in the Middle East, Central Asia, and Africa. In order to cultivate local talent and support high potential startups, Huawei Cloud launched the “Huawei Cloud Startup Program 2023” covering the Middle East, Central Asia, and Africa. The launch ceremony was attended by representatives from the UAE Ministry of Economy, Dinarak (a licensed payment services provider from Jordan), Ignite (a VC firm from Pakistan), and Eyon TV (startup representative from Kuwait).

Huawei Cloud is poised to become part of the growth engine for the local economy. Huawei Cloud launched in the UAE in 2021, providing a seamless cloud experience to local users. At Feburary this year, Huawei Cloud has made an announcement for an investment commitment of $400 million USD for the next 5 years to build a cloud in Saudi Arabia, extending high quality and secure cloud services to local customers to help them stay competitive.

Huawei Cloud aims to build a cloud foundation for an intelligent world leveraging the concept of “Everything as a Service”. Looking ahead, Huawei Cloud will continue to expand its global cloud infrastructure and provide customers, partners, and developers with stable, secure, and sustainable cloud services.

Source : Huawei

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Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have agreed on all but seven kilometers of their 1326 km border, but resolving the very last may be hard because they are located near the place where those two countries and Kyrgyzstan meet; and Kyrgyzstan has unresolved border disputes with both the other two (tj.sputniknews.ru/20221201/tajikistan-uzbekistan-granitsa-1053193255.html).

Nonetheless, the progress Tashkent and Dushanbe have reached is impressive and a sign that Tashkent tanis committed to delimiting and demarcating all its borders and that Dushanbe is as well. The chief problem lies with Kyrgyzstan because even when Bishkek is prepared to agree as it did recently with Tashkent, the Kyrgyz population is not.

(On that issue and how border disputes between Kyrgyzstan, on the one hand, and Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, on the other, is bleeding back into the Kyrgyz political system, see jamestown.org/program/kyrgyzstan-and-tajikistan-descending-into-chaos-and-full-scale-war/ and windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2022/11/bishkek-permits-kyrgyz-living-in-border.html.)

Until all the border disputes are resolved – and controversies have swirled continuously since 1991 – regional transportation projects are more or less on hold, drug flows and terrorist incursions are constant problems, and national elites will use these conflicts to build their own power bases even at the risk of war 

Source : EurasiaReview

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