It was bitter cold, but I don’t remember freezing or being cold. Hemingway wrote that the air was so cold when you took a breath it was like drinking water. We travelled by train, then we walked through the cold streets, no bus was running, we had to hustle to catch the last ride up the mountain, then it was up to the mountain, bundled up in two thick woolen blankets with the snow showering us. It was warm looking out of the peep hole I created, flying up the mountains sitting on the last ride of the day.

The guys on the ski lift slowed so on the embarking I could jump on. In those days it was all open seated, no warm and heated cabin. Naturelle was the norm.

Then we skied down to the lake, my dad with the heavy load with a pipe his brother machine welded in the city shop strapped in his backpack. He always carried the loads since he was as strong as an ox, my cousin and me. The winter nights were here, the landscape was just as fresh as a picture book, and the valley was covered in silver sparkling light greyish. Stars were bright covering the landscape from one end to the other. The evergreen trees were covered with fresh snow which the mountain shed plenty. Not a sound could be heard.

On the way the valley had a few houses before we descended into our world, with shimmering lights coming from the houses. Thick white smoke rose from the chimney poking through the snow. But no one could be seen. The only sounds were made by us making it through the snow pressing a track in the fresh snow.

Breathing the cold air my nostrils froze up. It did not bother me because otherwise I was happy as a camper. Thirty minutes passed by, before we entered the warmth of our destination, the Hütte, so I knew what was before me.

Spread out in the valley was the frozen lake, and a few huts that were not occupied by anyone. We were the first ones to occupy a house. The rest of the huts stood empty and cold. There was the forest “hunter” on the left who went in the valley below during the winter months, close to the house mountain in the back. Two more huts were between the state forester and us.

On the slope up on the right was another hunting lodge, and although never in my life I have seen a living soul in this hideout overlooking the salt path, the lake and the gaggle of huts.

Halfway was one hut, by now usually completely snowed under only to make a ramp, invisible to the untrained eye. The valley ran up against a wall of granite, hard cold stone, snow and wind. I paused, and I could hear the roaring of the winds against the high walls of snow and ice. Clear, ice-cold nights, stars blazing from the sky and silence. Pure silence.

Skiing into the valley we disturbed the peace. Hollering and yelling as we went down the steep alley, not seeing if anyone was before us. But my dad was easy to recognize. He had a freaking pipe sticking out of his backpack. As we were slaloming down the narrow gully, the “star gully”, named after some unlucky bloke, a bone shattering yell.

A fading shouted obscenity followed by a thump and…. silence. Rushing to the aid the poor soul, my mind racing, a picture of despair presented itself with the head buried in the snow, the gravity of the backpack did what Newton has predicted, and the pipe pointed in the sky like a mortar ready to launch.

Examining the scene, combing the parts thrown around the snow, gloves, thrown about by said angry human, sticks, a pair of skis, unbroken, human, no harm done, stove pipe, not bent, father angry, swearing like a sailor on shore leave, my indignation was laughter. Star gully had found a new victim.

The revenge of the snow under roof. My dad managed to ski jump the only roof in the entire gully, launching off the roof like a rocket. Laughter, a good tale was in the making. Getting tucked in the house, I spent some time outside, smiling to myself about what we just survived. Wondering about the thousand of stars that overlooked our little merry band.

Standing in the cold night, glittering and watching in amazement the star-studded sky, my father popped his head around asking “You wanna come inside?”

“In a minute”, I said turning my attention to the sky. He smiled, in a way only old guys can do, “It is Christmas”, he said with a smile.

My father has sadly passed away. He is gravely missed; he was a man of few words and a great member of the community. A dry wit, grumpy, stubborn, but loved his grandkids.

It’s Christmas, so he said. And it was.

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In October 2024, China’s first comprehensive regulation to tighten state control over the critical sector of rare earth resources took effect. Coming amid the global transition towards clean energy, the regulation demonstrates China’s increased leverage of its rare earth monopoly to outpace its geopolitical rivals like the United States, which remains far behind China in this sector. Intensified competition for rare earth elements risks overshadowing collaborative efforts to develop clean technology.

Mountain Pass, owned by MP Materials, is the only large-scale rare earth mining and processing facility in North America. Image from Wikimedia Commons.

In the race to develop clean technology, major polluting countries like the United States and China compete to lead in producing renewable energy products, striving to achieve environmental goals while enhancing national competitiveness. Rare earth elements (REE) — a group of 17 soft, heavy chemical elements — are major components for clean technologies like wind turbines, electric vehicles, and solar panels. The International Energy Agency projects that demand for REE could rise to 3–7 times current levels by 2040. Consequently, Western powers, such as the United States and the European Union, are under increasing pressure to secure essential REE for clean technologies needed to transition to a low-carbon economy. However, limited access to REE could hinder their ability to meet these goals.

China’s Monopoly in the Rare Earth Sector

Despite US dominance in rare earth mining from the 1960s to 1980s, environmental movements and regulatory pressures eventually led companies to relocate to China or close the US mines. Subsequently, China’s low costs, fuelled by state subsidies and lax environmental standards, allowed it to surpass the United States in the rare earth industry. Currently, China dominates the rare earth supply chain, controlling approximately 60 per cent of global mining operations, over 85 per cent of processing capacity, and more than 90 percent of permanent magnet production.

Trade frictions between China and the United States, the world’s two largest greenhouse gas emitters, are particularly hindering progress in the clean energy transition. In September 2024, the United States raised tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles to 100 per cent and significantly increased tariffs on other Chinese green technologies, including solar products. However, heavy reliance on China for the rare earths needed for the United States to independently produce these technologies has raised concerns that this dependency could become a significant vulnerability in the escalating tech war.

Global reserves of rare earths outside China include 19 per cent in Vietnam, 18 per cent in Brazil, 6 per cent in India, and 4 per cent in Australia. However, while alternative sources exist among these countries that the United States or its allies are friendly with, scaling up production to meet increasing demand remains a substantial challenge. For instance, China’s exceptional processing capacity of 220,000 tonnes per year — five times the combined capacity of the rest of the world — would take other countries years to match.

China’s Leverage of Rare Earth Elements

China is increasingly weaponising its dominance in REE to impose costs on its rivals in trade disputes. The resulting market dynamics are seen as producing externalities that adversely affect foreign clean technology businesses dependent on Chinese rare earth exports, potentially slowing the transition to renewable energy.

In October 2024, China’s first comprehensive regulation on rare earth resources took effect. As illegal mining and smelting have persisted in the country, the regulations introduce stringent rules governing the mining, refining and separation, metal smelting, integrated utilisation, product distribution, import and export of rare earths. Companies violating the regulations may face fines of 5–10 times their illegal gains. Consequently, rare earth supplies are expected to tighten, and prices of REE are expected to increase.

The regulation is seen as a move that could undermine the competitiveness of foreign clean technology products reliant on China-supplied rare earths as business would pass these higher costs on to their customers. Ultimately, the adoption of clean technologies like wind turbines and electric vehicles in countries like the United States could be slowed.

Earlier, in June 2024, Beijing declared rare earth resources to be state-owned and placed the industry under government oversight, ensuring product traceability. While framed as securing national and industrial interests, the move is widely seen as ensuring leverage in the ongoing trade dispute between the United States and China.

The new regulation extends China’s previous leverage over its control of the entire rare earth supply chain. In December 2023, China banned the export of technology for manufacturing rare earth magnets, which are essential components in many clean energy technologies, such as wind turbines. Additionally, in January 2022, Beijing banned foreign direct investment in rare earth mining projects. The ban was described as having “injected even more urgency” into Western efforts to diversify their mineral supply chains away from China.

Furthermore, the Chinese government is reportedly planning to offer direct grants and low-interest loans to its rare earth industry. Such a move would lower operating costs and allow Chinese companies to thrive in market conditions that are challenging to others, thereby dominating global processing capacity.

Obstacles to US Efforts to Reduce Dependence on China

China’s geopolitical rivals view Beijing’s rare earth monopoly as “a risk to national security” because of their strong dependence on Chinese exports.

As a challenger of China in the competition for developing clean technology, the United States is actively investing in various stages within the REE supply chain to reduce its reliance on China. Through its Manufacturing Capability Expansion and Investment Program, the US Defense Department (DOD) has launched a five-year strategy to establish a full domestic rare earth supply chain, covering sourcing, separation, processing, metallisation, alloying and magnet manufacturing. Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths, the only commercial-scale source of separated rare earths outside of China, received over US$258 million from the DOD to establish a production facility in Texas. Additionally, the DOD awarded US$45 million to MP Materials, which claims to be the “only scaled producer of rare earth materials in the Western Hemisphere”, to enhance domestic light and heavy rare earth processing capacity.

However, such efforts would not result in immediate challenges to China. The United States still lacks a complete domestic value chain from mining to magnet production. One of the primary reasons is that mining projects in the United States often have long lead times, with records indicating it takes around 16 years to complete permits and construction for production to begin.

The United States has also launched the Minerals Security Partnership (MSP) with key countries like Australia, which ranks just behind China in “exploration investment, reserves, and capital expenditure”; India, known for its manufacturing capabilities; and Japan, which plays a major role in financing. This partnership aims to address supply chain vulnerabilities in essential minerals like REE.

Nevertheless, as of 2024, MSP has seen minimal investment and lacks technological expertise, raising doubts about the partnership’s capacity to be a feasible alternative to China. Additionally, environmental concerns could be a significant hurdle to developing the partner countries’ rare earth mining or production capability. Each ton of rare earth produced generates 13 kilograms of dust, 9,600–12,000 cubic metres of waste gas, 75 cubic metres of wastewater, and one ton of radioactive residue, all of which have harmful health effects. Notably, Mountain Pass, the only large-scale rare earth mine and separation facility in North America, closed in 2002 after a toxic waste spill and remained shut for years. US mining companies are also struggling to recruit skilled workers, slowing down the US ambition to boost its domestic production capability.

Conclusion

Geopolitical tensions over resources and technology are hampering the clean energy transition. Energy transition is not intended to be a zero-sum game as all can benefit from clean energy products in a free trade situation, and therefore from reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions. However, growing supply chain fragmentation increasingly sees major economies prioritising supply security through the lens of national self-interest. Additionally, the intensified drive for rare earth extraction could further environmental degradation, thereby undermining global efforts to achieve net-zero carbon emissions.

Although it is unlikely that other countries will surpass China in rare earth production in the foreseeable future, a promising pathway to create a less polarised geopolitical landscape around REE and to reduce pollution is emerging in the form of recycling this resource from obsolete equipment.

From an economic perspective, recycling processes can be implemented more rapidly than the development of new mines, which typically requires decades for them to become commercially viable. From an environmentally friendly perspective, recycling reduces the need for new rare earth mining, thereby decreasing both the environmental and energy footprints associated with extraction and processing.

China’s strategy of leveraging its rare earth monopoly is highly effective in the short term but it may not retain the same level of influence over the long term. By 2050, reuse and recycling strategies could meet 30–40 per cent of rare earth mineral demand in the United States, China, and Europe. Although Beijing is likely to maintain its monopoly in the rare earth supply chain, increased circularity could gradually reduce other countries’ dependence on China, ultimately diminishing its geopolitical leverage over this critical resource.

Hu Xinyue is a Senior Analyst in the China Programme at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS), S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS).

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Many have taken out loans with floating rates, which creates a risk of widespread bankruptcies.

Marina Malakhatko, a senior director at the consulting firm CORE.XP, told the Russian media outlet Kommersant that at least 200 shopping malls will be at risk of bankruptcy in 2025. She said some owners are already looking to sell their assets.

Debt servicing has become even tougher after Russia‘s Central Bank was forced to hike interest rates to 21 percent – the highest level in over 20 years.

The Union of Shopping Centres (STTs) estimates that half of the country’s shopping centres are facing high debt burdens.

Many have taken out loans with floating rates, which creates a risk of widespread bankruptcies.

Marina Malakhatko, a senior director at the consulting firm CORE.XP, told the Russian media outlet Kommersant that at least 200 shopping malls will be at risk of bankruptcy in 2025. She said some owners are already looking to sell their assets.

Debt servicing has become even tougher after Russia‘s Central Bank was forced to hike interest rates to 21 percent – the highest level in over 20 years.

Russians have also faced tax increases, as the Kremlin seeks to raise more money to fund its war in Ukraine.

Government spending on national defence is expected to rise to $120 billion (£93bn this year from $75 billion (£58bn) in 2023.

In the summer Putin signed off on a package of tax rises worth almost $30 billion (£23bn), tapping workers and companies to raise more funds for his Ukraine offensive.

Source

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The first use of drone-based lidar in Central Asia has enabled archaeologists to uncover details of two newly discovered medieval trade cities high in the mountains of Uzbekistan.

The team used this cutting-edge technology to map the archaeological scale and layout of the cities, which are among the largest ever documented in the mountainous parts of the Silk Road, a broad network of ancient trade routes that connected Europe and Eastern Asia.

The research, led by Michael Frachetti, professor of archaeology in Arts & Sciences at Washington University in St. Louis, and Farhod Maksudov, director of the National Center of Archaeology in Uzbekistan, was recently published in Nature.

High-Resolution Insights into Ancient Urbanism

The drone-lidar scans provided remarkably detailed views of the plazas, fortifications, roads, and habitations that shaped the lives and economies of highland communities, traders, and travelers from the sixth through 11th centuries in Central Asia. The two cities are located in rugged terrain 2,000 to 2,200 meters above sea level (roughly comparable to Machu Picchu in Peru), making them unusual examples of thriving mountain urbanism.

Unveiling the Complexities of Mountain Urbanism

The smaller city, today called Tashbulak, covered about 12 hectares, while the larger city of Tugunbulak reached 120 hectares, “making it one of the largest regional cities of its time,” Frachetti said.

“These would have been important urban hubs in central Asia, especially as you moved out of lowland oases and into more challenging high-altitude settings,” he said. “While typically seen as barriers to Silk Road trade and movement, the mountains actually were host to major centers for interaction. Animals, ores, and other precious resources likely drove their prosperity.”

“This site had an elaborate urban structure with specific material culture that greatly varied from the lowland sedentary culture,” Maksudov said. “It’s clear that the people inhabiting Tugunbulak for more than a thousand years ago were nomadic pastoralists who maintained their own distinct, independent culture and political economy.”

Technological Advancements in Archaeological Exploration

Lidar technology is commonly used to map archaeological landscapes blocked by dense vegetation, but it has additional value where vegetation is sparse, such as the mountains of Uzbekistan. “Drone operation is strictly regulated in Uzbekistan, so this discovery is also thanks to the political support and permissions we received through local partners and government,” Frachetti said.

The centimeter-level scans allowed for advanced computer analysis of the ancient archaeological surfaces, providing an unprecedented view of the cities’ architecture and organization. “These are some of the highest-resolution lidar images of archeological sites ever published,” Frachetti said. “They were made possible, in part, because of the unique erosion dynamics in this mountain setting.”

A Blend of Modern Tech and Ancient Discovery

Frachetti, Maksudov, and their team first discovered the highland cities using predictive computer models and old-fashioned foot surveys between 2011 and 2015, tracing presumed routes of the Silk Road in southeastern Uzbekistan. The project took years to materialize. The extra time ultimately proved to be a blessing, allowing the researchers to make the most of the latest advances in drone-based lidar. “The final high-res maps were a composite of more than 17 drone flights over three weeks,” Frachetti said. “It would have taken us a decade to map such large sites manually.”

Frachetti and graduate students in his Spatial Analysis, Interpretation, and Exploration (SAIE) Lab compiled the drone-lidar data into 3D models, which were passed to Tao Ju, a professor of computer science and engineering, and Xiaoyi Liu, an undergraduate student, both at the McKelvey School of Engineering at WashU. Ju and Liu applied computational algorithms to analyze the archaeological surfaces and auto-trace millions of lines to predict likely architectural alignments. The final step was to match the digital output with comparable architectural cases, revealing a huge ancient city otherwise invisible to the naked eye. “The project reflects a truly interdisciplinary effort,” Ju said. “The analysis techniques have potential applications in many domains that utilize lidar scans.”

Future Excavations and Implications

Both cities warrant much closer inspection, Frachetti said. Preliminary digging at one of the fortified structures at Tugunbulak suggests that the fortress — a building protected by three-meter-thick rammed earth walls — might have been a factory where local metalsmiths turned rich deposits of iron ore into steel. Such industry would have been a key feature of the city and its economy.

It’s already clear that Tashbulak and Tugunbulak weren’t just remote outposts or rest stops. “The Silk Road wasn’t just about the endpoints of China and the West,” Frachetti said. “Major political forces were at play in Central Asia. The complex heart of the network was also a driver of innovation.”

Frachetti hopes to use the same combination of on-the-ground detective work and drone-based lidar to get pictures of other high-altitude settlements along the Silk Road and beyond. “We could really change the map of urban development in medieval Asia,” he said.

Reference: “Large-scale medieval urbanism traced by UAV–lidar in highland Central Asia” by Michael D. Frachetti, Jack Berner, Xiaoyi Liu, Edward R. Henry, Farhod Maksudov and Tao Ju, 23 October 2024, Nature.
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-08086-5

The expedition was supported by the National Geographic Society.

Source

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Washington 6 Nov (50). Russian officials and proxy authorities in Russia-controlled areas of Ukraine are undertaking a monumental effort to “filter” the population as a means of suppressing Ukrainian resistance and enforcing loyalty among the remaining population.

The United States condemns Russia’s “filtration” operations, forced deportations, and disappearances in Russia-controlled areas of Ukraine in which Russia’s forces and proxies have interrogated, detained, and forcibly deported Ukrainian, according to a broad range of sources, between 900,000 and 1.6 million Ukrainian citizens, including thousands of children. 

Ukrainian citizens are being taken to filtration camps in a concerted effort to suppress their resistance. Many Ukrainian citizens are facing forced deportations, arbitrary detentions, and torture and other abuses.

While at filtration camps, Ukrainian citizens are often strip-searched for “nationalistic” tattoos, photographed, and have their fingerprints taken. Ukrainian citizens have had their passports confiscated and their cell phones searched, with Russia’s forces sometimes downloading their contact lists.

There is evidence that Russia’s forces have interrogated, detained, and forcibly deported to Russia an estimated hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian citizens, including unaccompanied children, from their homes, often sending them to remote regions in Russia.

The United States has information that officials from Russia’s Presidential Administration are overseeing and coordinating filtration operations. Russia is also using advanced technology to facilitate filtration processes, including for the purposes of collecting data on Ukrainian citizens undergoing filtration.

As part of this effort, the United States has information that over the course of July 2022, more than 1,800 children were reported to have been transferred from Russia-controlled areas of Ukraine to Russia.  Once in Russia, some reports indicate that children undergo psychological “rehabilitation” and are forced to complete unspecified educational projects.

Thousands of Ukrainian children were reported to have been transferred to Russia. Once in Russia, some reports indicate that Ukrainian children undergo what Russia refers to as psychological “rehabilitation” and are forced to complete unspecified educational projects. 

Some of these children have no identity documents or information on the location of their parents. As part of this forced deportation, plans are being developed to place orphaned Ukrainian children with foster families in Russia, in collaboration with other executive agencies in the Russian government.

Children have been evacuated from Mariupol to Russia-controlled areas of Ukraine, and then to Russia. Some children lack any identity documents or information on the location or whereabouts of their parents. 

To facilitate the forced deportation and resettlement of children, officials in Russia-controlled areas of Ukraine are developing administrative arrangements to place orphans with  families in Russia, in collaboration with Russian executive agencies.

Separately, as of July 2022, Russian officials reportedly forced prisoners in a Russia-held area of Ukraine to apply for Russian citizenship.  Prisoners who refused to apply were subjected to physical and psychological abuse.

The United States supports all international efforts to examine mounting evidence of atrocities and other abuses in Ukraine, including fact-finding missions conducted by the International Criminal Court, the United Nations, the Experts Missions established by invocation of the OSCE’s Moscow Mechanism, and other efforts. We also support a wide range of documentation initiatives that can support such investigations.

Source

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London 30 October (20).

In 2014, Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula. That same year, Russian special operation forces captured Donetsk and Luhansk, two of the main cities in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine and created puppet pro-Russian regimes there to further destabilize Ukraine.

Media, academic and general coverage of the War on the Doorsteps of Europe received shock, disbelief and a bizarre debate on the greatness of the Russian Federation. In particularly a German article received my attention which ought to be considered. The Russian Federation is morally bankrupt.

Regardless of the BRICS meetings and the self-flagellation of its political leadership and worlds hope to finally get even with the evil western powers Russia is not seven feet tall, leaps over tall building or other self-proclamation. The Russia that I know has broken lifts, streets with potholes, near third world poverty, alcoholism, brute violence and regardless how we view the Russian Federation a dictatorship.

That is the Russia that I know. In some verbal diarrhea a well written German author compares Russia with Prussia, recalls the history of Czar Kathrine, the vastness and wealth of the Russian Federation. In good old German traditions, he drives on the wealth of the Russian Federation. He speaks of roams of Gold, and Diamonds, and richness beyond anybody imaginations.

Let me educate the public on all these nonsensical narratives. Because they are false. Like the United States who beaten the English, Russia was bankrupt in the 1990s. The states broke away as fast as they could. They wanted nothing from the Russians. The Russian core, so often praised, was stuck in the mining towns of the Soviet Union with no jobs, and a few options available, drunkenness was rampant.

The Russian needed American, English, South African mining technology and engineers. The town was a secret city. Not on any one map. The local Gulag provided workers for a couple of dollars that without doubt went to the pocket of the local police. We had murderers, thieves and the rest of the outcasts of society. Russians laughed about the technology from the west because they could not imagine a bunch of cowboys as we were called, could make gold out of the dust which the Russians thrown away. But we did, and the money went to the private bank accounts of the regime in London. It’s an open secret but it is.

The Russian wealth the German author so euphorically quotes went to the coffers of the regime with accounts in the West. The average Russian saw zero of the wealth.

Fun fact. And since Catherine the Great, which was a German by her Pomeranian origins, Princess Sophie of Anhalt-Zerbst, came to power by overthrowing her husband, Peter III who was born in Kiel, Germany. The increasing demands of the state and of private landowners intensified the exploitation of serf labor which resulted in riots and uprisings. She had him overthrown and a legitimate successor murdered. So much for democracy in Russia.

In the German psyche the cleavages to compare Russia with Prussia is as far fetched as claiming the United States as part of England. The English lost, and like Russia it has little consequence for Russia today.

The fact that Russia was once a superpower has no bearing to the ambitions of today. The geographical relations with Moscow are for history books. And BRICS being a society of like-minded countries, we’ll see.

It is more like a military with competing interests. For example, the South China Sea is in the hinterlands of the Russian Federation and competing interests of China and Russia. Will Malaysia, now proud member of BRICS surrenders its claims since it joined BRICS?

Neither has the claims on the Ukraine. The Russian unison is rather a mysterious animal. The Russian Federation of today is as un-unified as ever can be. The German explanation of not having achieved the war strategy for NATO and the EU is so typically wrapped in some wishful make belief of CNN quick and dirty Gulf war victory. Germany must learn to defend itself and win wars. This is an uncomfortable truth. Defeat of Russia is the only option. Get on with it.

The debate about winning and forecasting wars has entered the academic debate. A Ukrainian academic completed a detailed analysis on the causes of the war and how it will end. Its noteworthy to read, even if you are German.

A substantial percentage of the local population of the Donbas region, predominantly Russian speaking Ukrainians and ethnic Russians, wanted to join Russia, as the government promised them higher pensions. The average monthly pension in Russia in 2013 was about $285 per month, while the average pension in Ukraine was $160.

The Russian government used its bluffing techniques to threaten the West with the use of a nuclear weapon. The West responded to Russian aggression by expressing their numerous concerns and introducing mild sanctions against Russia, Crimea, and occupied Donbas.

The continued influx of money from the West to Russia, approximately $1 billion per day for mostly gas and oil, encouraged the Russian government to start a full-scale war against Ukraine on 24 February 2022. This money flow has to change.

The goal was to occupy Ukraine, exterminate pockets of resistance, and add Ukraine to the Russian-led union like the USSR. The Russian army attacked Ukraine from the north, east, and south, and used the blitzkrieg method of a massive attack. The Russian government was counting on the fast collapse of the Ukrainian army and the rapid capture of the Ukrainian capital. This did not happen. 

Western military experts have grossly overestimated the quality of the Russian army. They predicted the collapse of Ukraine in seventy-two hours, repeating the Russian propaganda mantra that Kyiv will be taken in three days. The Western experts and leadership were wrong again, in part due to their limited understanding of the Ukrainian culture with deep-rooted military history, ingenuity, and passionate desire to end centuries-long Russian oppression and genocide of the Ukrainian people. The death of the experts. The Russian army is as broken as it was in 1991. Poor barracks, old kit, non-existing combat casualty treatment centers, abusive command, drunkenness, corruption and abuse.

This could be explained by the large number of ethnic Russians and saboteurs among the local governments of southern Ukraine. In contrast, predominantly Ukrainian speaking people of the Kherson region started mass protests within the first days of the Russian invasion. The map shows otherwise.

The Russian government is using its resources to soften, fracture, and destabilize Ukraine. The Russian army attacked Ukrainian energy infrastructure to cut off electricity, heat, and water, and increase the scale of the humanitarian disaster in Ukraine during the winter. The Russian ‘Blitz’ will come with long teeth. Killing kids, attacks against hospitals, and the elderly will not be forgotten. It hardened the Ukrainian resolve.

The Russian government is expecting that the Ukrainian people will not want to suffer any longer and will demand the Ukrainian government to enter peace negotiations. This is the same tactic with the same verbiage used by Nazi Germany in 1940, trying to force Great Britain to surrender.

Rapid defeat of the Russian forces could reduce the number of Ukrainian casualties, especially among the Ukrainian civilians, as well as the overall damage to the Ukrainian infrastructure and the total costs of the war to Ukraine and NATO partners. The decision makers in NATO and the EU need to recognize this. Experts err.

Ukraine wants to join NATO or another powerful military block, to make sure that in the future, Russia will be afraid to attack Ukraine again. This is the war for the survival of the Ukrainian people who remember the twentieth century as the century of the systematic Ukrainian genocide by Soviet Russia, including three famines and forced labor and death in the Russian concentration camps.

However, the West underestimated the ability of the Russian Federation to survive economic hardship. As of today, there are no significant instabilities in the Russian Federation. The Russian government was able to stabilize its internal processes. Most likely, the West is uncomfortable with the unknown outcomes of possible collapse of the Russian Federation.

Based on my observations, Ukrainian people desire the collapse of the Russian Federation as soon as possible. There is a reasonable and rather predictable time window for their collapse.

In a simplified war duration model, the time window for the war end can be estimated from the duration of the first successful for the adversary phase, that is, the time interval between the start of the war and the time when the adversary became exhausted.

The End of Russia (as we know it)

Regional separations and collapse of the Russian Federation should occur between 10 June 2024 and 4 February 2025. According to the model accounting for possible delays due to the weapon supplies, bad weather, peace talks, etc., the collapse of the Russian Federation will likely occur on or around 28 May 2026.

I believe that the collapse of the USSR in 1991 was incomplete, because it did not split its main member— the Russian Federation into several states. The same flat plate model with the same coefficients was used to estimate the earliest date for the collapse of the USSR.

Subsequent recovery peaks of different amplitude should occur every four to eight years.

One can reasonably expect that Russia’s recovery peaks should lead to new territorial expansion wars initiated by Russia every four to eight years. According to the simplified models with no damping (no delaying factors), the largest peaks for the Russian aggression should develop in December 2002, July 2013, and January 2021.

The flat plate model with moderate damping predicted the collapse of the USSR around 17 June 2001, and periodic attempts of the Moscow government to rebuild the USSR, with its peak efforts around July 2013, August 2025, and September 2043.

The plate model with relatively strong damping representing stronger effort of the West to stabilize the collapsing USSR, produced rather soft collapse of the USSR around 1 July 2007, with subsequent recovery and attempts to rebuild the USSR.

However, in the case of strong damping (meaning strong Western efforts to support the collapsing USSR), the USSR should experience a relatively soft collapse, after which Moscow would start its rather successful restoration of the Soviet Union.

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Moscow (11 September/ 33.33).

Russia waged a 2-year war of aggression against its neighbor, the Ukraine. Two years on, hundred thousand of deaths, families destroyed, Russia is no where near its 3-day goals of occupation. The Russian army slugs on, mile for mile, killed for killed. Vladimir Putin and his Siloviki continues a red army model. Heavy artillery, wave of men urging forward. The result, mass casualties. Total loss of life, and equipment.

What does Russians do if in trouble. Reversing to its all bag of tricks. Spies and sabotage. Recent Russian sabotage operations across Europe were “reckless”, Moore said, describing Russian intelligence as “having gone a bit feral”. But “in the UK that is not new”, he added, referring to the attempted assassination of Russian double agent Sergei Skripal in Salisbury in 2018.

Asked if Russian intelligence might be conducting similar sabotage operations against the US by abetting illegal migration across the Mexico border, Burns said: “It’s something we are very sharply focused on. Part of that is a function of so many Russian agents [being] kicked out of Europe. So, they are looking for somewhere to go instead.”

But these sometimes child like operations cause blowbacks. Operations and governments getting increasingly more sophisticated in exposing the intelligence operations and their agents.

Bangladesh, Laos, Sri Lanka are countries who are exposed to Russian interests. However, Russians have very little to offer.

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Once more Tajikistan comes on the radar screen. Who will be the next president of Tajikistan? How is the ban on the hijab helping the deradicalization of Tajik society? What is the role of the Chinese and Russian influence? And how is the relationship with the European Union coming along? 

Every year we face a plethora of Tajik issues, for example corruption and drug usage involving officials, now the ban on face veils, or the newest version a ban on black clothes. The desecration of the grave of one of leaders and the promotions of killer squad of the ministry of interiors. 

Despite the ICC dispatches a fact-finding mission on Tajikistan and reports back we need to ask the question what has changed, if anything? So far very little, to near nothing. Observers of the Tajik issue reports an uptick of Chinese involvement, or Russian press gang related issues to force Tajiks to army service in the Ukraine. 

The German foreign ministry is surprisingly mum about the situation in Tajikistan. The trust level is always low. Maybe the new “Iron Lady” will bring changes to the foreign relations debacle with Tajikistan. It’s about time. 

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Frankfurt, Paris (18/8 – 62.50)

Ukraine has scored a series of victories in more than a week since launching a lightning offensive into Russian territory. Now the stakes are rising as its forces prepare to defend their gains and Russia begins to regain its footing.

Last week, Ukraine deployed thousands of troops to the Kursk region in western Russia, removing Russian flags from captured towns and taking the initiative from Moscow for the first time in months. On Wednesday, officials in Kyiv said Ukraine would use seized Russian territory as a “buffer zone” to shield its north from Russian strikes.

Panic spread quickly among local Russian residents in the early hours of the assault, despite repeated attempts by authorities to assure them that everything was under control, according to a timeline by Reuters of the first two days of the incursion.

Oleksandr Syrskyi, head of the Ukrainian armed forces, said on Thursday that Kyiv had set up a military commandant’s office in the occupied part of Kursk, suggesting ambitions to dig in. The occupied area exceeds 1,150 sq km, Syrskyi said.

Ukraine’s goals at Kursk include diverting Russian forces from the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, where Russia has been making advances for months and is trying to seize the entire region, said Ukraine’s former defense minister, Andriy Zagorodnyuk. In addition to dealing a reputational blow to President Vladimir Putin, the largest invasion of Russia since World War II has decimated Russian forces, captured bargaining chips, and created a threat to Russia’s flank.

However, a Ukrainian foreign ministry spokesman said that Ukraine was “not interested” in permanently taking Russian land and that the territory was intended only as a bargaining chip in peace talks.

Kyiv-based military analyst Serhiy Zgurets predicted that Ukraine would try to maintain control of the area between the towns of Rylsk, Korenevoye, and Sudzha and the border, which gives Ukraine control of a strip about 20 km (12 miles) wide strip of Russian territory. “This line is not difficult to defend, given there are few roads and a large number of rivers,” he said, as quoted by Reuters.

Ukraine’s forces destroyed eight Russian attack drones and five out of eight missiles, Ukraine’s Air Force chief said on Sunday. As a result of the anti-aircraft combat, anti-aircraft missile troops of the Air Force, mobile firing groups of the Ukrainian Defence Forces, and electronic warfare units shot down 13 air targets in Kyiv, Sumy, and Poltava regions.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed that the operation to strengthen Ukrainian troops in Kursk, Russia, on Saturday (08/17/2024), went according to plan. He referred to Syrsky’s report, which mentioned the strengthening of Ukrainian troops’ positions in the Kursk region and the expansion of the controlled territory steadily. This is also related to the capture of Russian soldiers who will be used for future prisoner exchanges.

“I thank all the soldiers and commanders who are taking Russian soldiers. Thus, the release of our soldiers and civilians held by Russia is getting closer,” Zelensky said.

Meanwhile, to win the war over Ukraine, Russia has increased its propaganda budget in 2024 by 20% from its already massive $1.6 billion. Russian economists have been at the forefront of internet disinformation since at least 2014 when it pioneered the use of bot farms to spread fake news about its invasion of Crimea. The Kremlin is at it again, according to French authorities.

Viginum, the France’s foreign-disinformation watchdog, says it has detected preparations for a large disinformation campaign in France, Germany, Poland, and other European countries. The uncovering of a Russian network of 193 websites designed to spread “deceptive or false” content about the war in Ukraine, comes after a series of destabilization efforts that French authorities have attributed to Moscow.

The network, codenamed “Portal Kombat,” also targeted Germany, Poland, and France, which are thought as particular targets as the European Parliament elections draw nearer.

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Meet Allan J. Lichtman, a historian with a seemingly magical Midas touch who has been calling US Presidential Elections with eerie accuracy since 1984. 

While most political pundits and pollsters scramble to keep up with the tides of public opinion, Lichtman calmly unveils the future, his predictions as steady as a seasoned fortune teller’s gaze into a crystal ball. But how does he do it? Is he a modern-day Nostradamus, gifted with supernatural foresight, or is something deeper at play here?

Lichtman’s method

Lichtman’s method, often shrouded in mystery, is not based on mere guesswork or gut feeling. His secret weapon? A system he devised called ‘The Keys to the White House’. This isn’t your run-of-the-mill analysis but a framework built on 13 true-or-false statements, each designed to capture the underlying currents of a presidential race. 

These ‘keys’ range from the economy’s performance to social unrest and from incumbency advantages to the absence of scandal. If six or more of these keys turn against the party in power, Lichtman predicts it will lose the presidency. This model, grounded in historical data rather than transient public sentiment, has turned Lichtman into a political seer whose predictions cut through the noise of modern-day electioneering. 

Imagine being able to foresee the outcome of elections while others falter, blinded by polling missteps and media frenzy. In a world where digital misinformation has become the norm and where climate change can even skew weather patterns, how can one man stand firm in his ability to forecast something as volatile as American politics? Lichtman’s system doesn’t just defy the odds; it redefines them, offering a clarity that seems almost otherworldly in a time when certainty is a rare commodity.

Lichtman predicted the following elections since 1984 well ahead, publicly using mainstream and credible media.

1984: ‘How to Bet in ’84’

1988: ‘How to Bet in November’ 

1992: ‘The Keys to the White House’

1996: ‘Who Will Be the Next President’

2000: ‘The Keys to Election 2000’

2004: ‘The Keys to the White House’

2008: ‘Forecast for 2008’

2012: ‘Preliminary Forecast for 2012’

2016: ‘Trump is Headed for a Win’

2020: ‘He Predicted Trump’s Win in 2016, Now He’s Ready to Call 2020’

Except for a couple of predictions of the popular vote, he predicted all others with remarkable accuracy. I have met pollsters who could predict an election just a week ahead of the election day. This is easy for experienced and masterful pollsters, campaigners, and political leaders. However, Lichtman, the 13 keys, and the statistical model predict before anyone can comprehend an election campaign. 

High stakes ahead

As Lichtman, at 77 years of age, prepares to unveil his prediction for the 2024 showdown, the stakes are higher than ever. The contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is set to be one of the most polarising in history, with a nation deeply divided and the world watching closely. Will Lichtman’s keys guide him to yet another correct prediction? And if so, what does that say about the nature of power, politics, and the very fabric of American democracy?

This Harvard-educated Professor, who was an expert witness in over 100 civil and voting rights cases and authored 11 books, remains a towering figure in geopolitical discourse. His predictions capture the public’s imagination and influence how we understand the dynamics of elections. While others chase trends, Lichtman leans on a well-honed system that has weathered the storms of political upheaval. 

In a world where even the seasons and weather patterns seem to change unpredictably, Lichtman is a Mozart of political predictions, reminding us that, sometimes, the most profound insights come not from the noise of the moment but from a deeper understanding of history’s patterns, human psychology, leadership decision-making, behaviour, and the sentiments of the public at large. 

So, as we get closer to the next big election, one question looms: will Lichtman get it right again? And if he does, what else might he see that the rest of us are missing? The answers may lie not just in the future but in the very methods Lichtman has perfected over decades – techniques that have turned him into an almost mythical figure in political prediction.

Lichtman’s keys in South Asia

With all due respect to Lichtman’s 13 keys, which have cracked the code of American Presidential Elections for decades, one might wonder how this framework would fare in South Asia’s complex, diverse political landscape. In this region, elections are far from straightforward. 

Think about India, where the election process is a Herculean task, spanning weeks and involving 900 million voters, one million polling booths, all from various backgrounds. How can a system designed to predict outcomes in a political environment like the US handle the wild diversity of South Asia? Here, the influence of religion, the deep roots of caste, the vast stretches of land, poverty, the growing middle class, unemployment, and the varying definitions of charisma and leadership play a role that would challenge even the most sophisticated models.

Yet, for me, despite these challenges, Lichtman’s 13 keys offer more than just a prediction tool – they provide a fascinating lens through which we can analyse elections and the broader dynamics of governance and political strategy in South Asia. 

In a region where the very definition of being a leader can differ from village to village, Lichtman’s approach could offer a structured way to think about the elements that truly matter in shaping public opinion. Imagine applying this framework not just to foresee electoral outcomes but to understand how governments can maintain stability, enforce checks and balances, and craft political campaigns to resonate across such a vast and varied population.

Lichtman’s keys were more than just a prediction tool – they became the foundation for something I had been working on for seven years. What works in a political campaign? How do you craft a theory that sounds good on paper and delivers results when it matters most? This is no small feat in South Asia, where the stakes are always high and the playing field constantly shifts. Lichtman’s framework, focusing on the fundamental forces that drive political change, offered a way to approach these questions systematically.

Moreover, it challenged me to think about strategy in a way that goes beyond the usual clichés. What works in shaping public opinion? Is it the message, the messenger, or something deeper, something more structural? 

As I reflected on these questions, I realised that while the 13 keys might not be directly applicable to every aspect of South Asian politics, they offer a starting point – a way to begin dissecting the complexities of this region’s political landscape. 

They encourage us to look beyond the surface, ask what drives political change, and recognise that in politics, as in life, the unseen forces often have the most power. With this framework in mind, I embarked on a journey to explore what works in South Asia and build a strategy to navigate its challenges and tap into its unique opportunities. The journey is far from over, but with Lichtman’s keys in hand, the path forward is a bit clearer.

A universal framework 

Seven years ago, a close friend of mine – a political campaign veteran with 40 years of experience who quietly influenced the rise of many leaders – and I embarked on an ambitious journey. 

We set out to craft a theory tailored explicitly to the complexities of South Asian politics, fully aware that what worked in one part of the world might not necessarily apply elsewhere. Our approach was as unassuming as we were, yet it was profound. Through countless hours of discussion, debate, disagreements, and analysis, we shaped a concept that would eventually transform how we viewed political campaigning. 

We were not looking to rewrite the rules; instead, we sought to distil the essence of what drives human behaviour in politics. Our insights became the foundation of what I now believe is a universal framework that can transcend borders and cultures: the interplay of hope, fear, and jealousy.

As I watched elections unfold across the globe – from Taiwan to Pakistan, Bangladesh to the UK, Russia to South Africa, India, and most recently Sri Lanka – I saw patterns emerge. These were not just random electoral outcomes but manifestations of more profound, primal emotions. It became clear that hope, fear, and jealousy were not just abstract concepts but powerful forces that could be harnessed to influence political outcomes. 

Hope drives people to believe in a better future and rally behind a leader who promises change. On the other hand, fear can be a potent motivator, pushing people to act in defence of what they have in order to avoid a perceived threat. Jealousy, often overlooked, stirs up resentment and the desire to level the playing field, whether in economic terms or social status. Together, these emotions create a dynamic that can be both predictable and volatile. 

All above elections I covered extensively for public consumption and some private coverage helped key decision-makers, both in politics and business, with meaningful discourses which led to action. After all, politics shakes business and business shapes politics. When I reflect upon all elections, the hope, fear, and jealousy was universal. 

When leaders tap into hope, they inspire; they offer a vision of what could be, often galvanising those who feel disenfranchised. Leaders like Lee Kuan Yew, Nelson Mandela, and John F. Kennedy instilled hope. In the great Lee Kuan Yew, I saw a leader who was both feared and loved, a rare combination for a leader, and I called it the epitome of leadership. 

The danger of promising hope in a campaign is the credibility of the message of hope. Can a leader honour the commitment of hope? This is a critical question in developing a presidential campaign. In 2016, Donald Trump hit the nail on the head with ‘Make America Great Again’. If he had delivered, would Joe Biden have won the election in 2020? 

When invoked, fear can unify people against a common enemy or perceived danger, whether it’s economic instability, cultural erosion, or an external threat. Meanwhile, jealousy is the undercurrent that can turn the tide unexpectedly. It can lead to movements that demand equality, reject the status quo, or push back against perceived elitism. 

A fear psychosis was at play in the Indian election. There were slogans against Premier Narendra Modi, calling him a dictator, pro-Hindu and anti-Muslim, and a failure, whilst his opponent Rahul Gandhi was projected as a product of nepotism, a danger to the economic and political stability of India. Closer to election day, narratives were about vote counting malpractices to changing election results, and the fear not only crashed the hopes of people but also crashed the stock market. 

But post-election, I witnessed that most of the stories had disappeared. People are getting on with their lives. Why were Indians angry, jealous, and some praying for hope only at election time? Why not in the aftermath? 

When Sheikh Hasina won the election in Bangladesh this year, she lasted only a few months in her seat as the people’s fear broke the threshold, and once peaceful street protests turned violent after the Government forces killed hundreds of student protesters. 

Understanding the human condition 

In the coming years, as we see more elections unfold and more leaders rise and fall, this framework will prove itself time and time again. It’s not about manipulating people; it’s about understanding the fundamental drivers of human behaviour and how they intersect with the political landscape. 

As we delve deeper into how hope, fear, and jealousy work in real life, we can unlock the secrets to winning elections and understanding the complex and often contradictory nature of our societies. The journey of political strategy is as much about understanding human nature as it is about understanding politics, and this is a path worth exploring.

Gautama Buddha’s teachings remind us of something fundamentally human: the presence of anger, jealousy, and delusion within us all. These emotions are not just fleeting feelings but deep-rooted forces that shape how we see the world and, crucially, our leaders. 

Who among us hasn’t felt a pang of jealousy, a surge of anger, or the fog of delusion? These emotions are personal and collective, influencing the masses and steering the direction of entire societies. But how exactly do these primal instincts manifest in the modern world, particularly politics and leadership?

Consider how people lined up for days to buy the latest iPhone in the early days or digital conversations when someone’s views clash with another’s. It’s not just about the product or the opinion – it’s about what lies beneath. Anger fuels those heated online debates, jealousy drives the obsession with having the latest gadget that others flaunt, and delusion clouds the judgement of those who believe that ownership equates to status. This is the human condition and is a powerful force in shaping public opinion.

Harnessing emotions in the political arena 

Now, let’s take this into the political arena. Creating hope is not just possible – it’s a strategy. 

Look at Modi’s campaign in India. Modi didn’t just run for office; he tapped into a deep well of hope within the Indian electorate, offering a vision of stability and prosperity that resonated across the country. His opponent Gandhi too offered a similar narrative, but in politics the campaign does not end with communications, it goes well beyond to alliances, partnerships, and allies, including geopolitical actors. 

Hope can be manufactured, moulded, and directed, and when done effectively, it can lead to sweeping electoral victories. 

But what about anger? That, too, can be stoked and channelled. Think back to the mass protests in Sri Lanka in 2022 or Bangladesh in 2024. In both instances, anger over economic mismanagement, corruption, anti-democratic moves, and a lack of accountability led to regime changes, with leaders fleeing the country. Anger isn’t just an emotion; it’s a catalyst for change, and when it reaches a tipping point, it can be unstoppable.

Fear is another tool that can be wielded with precision. In Taiwan, the fear of geopolitical uncertainty has driven voters and leaders alike to act in ways that protect what they hold dear. The spectre of conflict, losing sovereignty, or economic collapse can create an atmosphere where fear dictates decisions, both in the voting booth and in the corridors of power.

And then there’s jealousy. Can you create jealousy? Absolutely. It’s perhaps the most subtle yet potent of all. When political campaigns highlight the successes of some to contrast the struggles of others, they stir up feelings of envy. Jealousy brews when leaders flaunt their achievements or when governments spotlight the disparities between regions or classes. This quiet but simmering emotion can lead to unrest, demands for equality, and, in some cases, upheaval.

In the end, the emotions that the Buddha spoke of are not just inner battles; they are the very forces that drive political movements, consumer behaviour, and social change. Understanding how to harness these emotions – whether to inspire hope, ignite anger, instil fear, or provoke jealousy – is critical to understanding how the world operates today. It’s not just about predicting outcomes; it’s about shaping them.

The key to a successful political campaign 

Too much fear paralyses a movement. It creates a culture of anxiety and distrust, where people are so overwhelmed by what could go wrong that they lose sight of what could go right. Campaigns that lean too heavily into fear may drive voters to the polls, but they risk alienating them in the long run, creating a legacy of dread rather than progress.

Similarly, an overabundance of hope can lead to disillusionment. Leaders who promise the moon and stars without acknowledging the hurdles set themselves up for failure. Hope, when unchecked, can become a double-edged sword, leading to impossible expectations that, when unmet, turn the very optimism that once energised a campaign into a source of bitter disappointment.

Jealousy, too, is a dangerous emotion when left unchecked. If a campaign stirs up too much envy, it can breed resentment, dividing communities rather than uniting them. A strategy that overplays jealousy may spark initial engagement but also risks creating deep societal rifts that are difficult to heal, ultimately leading to instability rather than solidarity.

This realisation led me to an important conclusion: the key to a successful political campaign isn’t found in the extremes of hope, fear, or jealousy but in their balance. It’s about finding that delicate equilibrium where these emotions intersect, creating an aspirational narrative grounded in reality. A leader who can navigate this intersection – who can inspire hope while acknowledging legitimate fears and subtly addressing the undercurrents of jealousy – has the potential to craft campaigns that resonate deeply with the electorate.

Imagine a campaign that instils hope by offering a realistic vision of the future, acknowledging the challenges ahead but assuring the public that together, they can overcome them. This same campaign would recognise and address the people’s fears, not by amplifying them but by providing concrete solutions and a sense of security. And when it comes to jealousy, the campaign would highlight fairness and equality, ensuring that everyone feels they have a stake in the promised future.

This is the balance every successful campaign strives for. It’s not about manipulating emotions but about understanding and respecting them, and weaving them into a powerful and sustainable narrative. Leaders who master this balance won’t just win elections – they’ll earn the trust and loyalty of the people, creating a foundation for lasting change.

Sri Lanka’s critical moment 

Sri Lanka is on the brink of a pivotal moment in its history as it heads toward the Presidential Election on 21 September to choose its ninth executive president. The atmosphere is charged and the campaigns are steeped in the classic trio of political emotions: hope, fear, and jealousy. Yet, despite the enthusiasm, none of the candidates seems to grasp the critical balance among these forces – a balance that could determine not just victory but the nation’s very future.

I shared this column with Prof. Lichtman for his guidance and a man of wisdom could bring more clarity to the above thought process. 

The 22 million Sri Lankans are yearning for a leader who can steer the country through the next five years and offer clarity amidst the current confusion of party lines, geopolitical sensitivities, and the overwhelming field of 39 presidential candidates. At least six stand out as serious contenders, each trying to outmanoeuvre the other in a race that has become a cauldron of fear-mongering, lofty promises, and envy-stoking.

As the campaign intensifies over the next five weeks, it’s clear that fear is playing a dominant role in the strategies of most prominent candidates. Whether it’s fear of economic collapse, fear of social unrest, or fear of losing national identity, these narratives are being pushed hard, creating a sense of urgency and anxiety among the electorate. But is this the path to victory or a more profound division?

On 21 September, Sri Lankans will not just choose a president; they will select the emotion that will define their future. Will it be a future built on fear, hope, or jealousy – or will one candidate finally strike that elusive middle path, offering a vision that resonates with the full spectrum of human experience? The next few weeks will be critical in determining which of these forces will reign supreme and shape the destiny of this beautiful island nation that I call paradise and my home.

Saliya Weerakoon

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