Tajikistan pushes for $1 billion power grid project to Afghanistan
The President of Tajikistan proposed to the World Bank to connect the energy systems of Central and South Asia for a billion dollars at COP28

The CASA-1000 power transmission line project from Tajikistan to Afghanistan and Pakistan should continue, says Tajik President Emomali Rahmon. He advanced this idea in a conversation with World Bank President Ajay Banga during the COP28 climate conference in Dubai.

The leader of the Turkmen nation believes that the resumption of the project will unite the energy markets of Central and South Asia.

It is planned to finance the CASA-1000 project with the active participation of several major global financial systems, including the World Bank, the project involves the unification of the energy transmission networks of Central and South Asia in terms of electricity exports. The cost of CASA-1000 is estimated at one billion dollars, the planned length of the networks should be 1227 kilometers.

In 2021, the implementation of part of the project in Afghanistan was stopped when the government there changed; the decision to continue work on this site is planned to be resumed before the end of this year. Moreover, Afghanistan accounts for the longest part of the power transmission lines – 570 kilometers.

Source: Oil Capital

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That there are remarkable advantages in being ignored is not generally recognized. Central Asian countries, historically under the thumb of Moscow, all through the 70+ years of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, were more or less cut off from the outside world. There was little trade or other exchange.

The USSR was in fact a grab-bag of ethnicities, religions and languages, controlled with an iron fist by Stalin and afterwards with unbroken dominance through subsequent regimes.

Under Soviet management, Central Asia had stayed poor and ignored; it had not developed any hydrocarbon resources to lure western and European petro-buccaneers of the transatlantic Empire. With the sudden collapse of the USSR, renewed interest in the jigsaw puzzle of the various “-stans” arose in the west, partly in order to sniff out mineral resources of potential value – Kazakhstan has oil – but also in an effort to “contain” the newly-established “Russian Federation”, still a prickly opponent armed with ICBMs, and with tempting land and mineral resources. Western hegemony has steadily crept into Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, all Muslim, Turkic-speaking nations relieved to finally slip away from Russian domination.

“Hope Springs Eternal”, and there are western political figures and think-tankers who propose to bust up the Russian Federation into smaller, more malleable nations, docile ones easier to raid for tasty resources (such as was documented after 1991, when the Russian oligarchs conspired with western companies to steal everything that wasn’t nailed down). That the Russians themselves might not acquiesce in seeing their nation broken up and exploited is outrageous to the west, which considers the world its oyster (evidence: cheap extraction of resources from Africa & Latin America, with little profit for those who live there, with unbroken western hegemony).

The charming fantasy of breaking Russian military potential would allow Washington to fulfill its dreamy dream of “total spectrum dominance” (actual Pentagon term – not made up), having all but gutted the European economy through its quixotic Ukrainian adventure: destruction of the Nordstream 2 pipeline cut off the cheap Russian gas driving West European industry and consumer markets. Meanwhile, a sizable American military continues to occupy Germany, the UK and Japan.

The USA exacts tribute from its vassals through a negative trade balance and the relentless sale of Treasury Bonds, financial instruments whose intrinsic value becomes ever more questionable, and overpriced armaments.

With the Russians embroiled in the Ukrainian “Special Military Operation”, ostensibly to protect Russian-speaking areas under attack since 2014 by neo-Nazis, NATO saw an opportunity to beguile Central Asia, following the peaceful lead of the People’s Republic of China, whose “Belt & Road Initiative” has already made inroads, first in primitive Tajikistan and considerably more developed Kazakhstan.

China has also built the world’s longest oil pipeline, stretching from its oil fields in Kazakhstan over the Tien Shan mountain range separating it from Central Asia.

Now, the Americans, working through NATO and its usual-suspect NGOs, are attempting to tempt the Central Asian republics away from Russia, hoping that the traditional resentment of Soviet abuse and exploitation will draw them toward alliances with the west.

An example of Russian mistreatment: its nuclear weapons tests and space launches are being carried out in Kazakhstan.

One Andrei Serenko, Director of the Analytical Centre of the Russian Society of Political Scientists and head of the Centre for the Study of Afghan Politics, has warned that a resurgent terror movement, originating in brutal Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, poses threats to countries of Central Asia, primarily to Tajikistan. The Jamaat Ansarullah movement (also known as Tehrik-e-Taliban Tajikistan, or TTT, or the “Tajik Taliban”), has begun to train suicide bombers, consisting mainly of candidates from desperately-poor Tajikistan.

Jamaat Ansarullah is said to be based in the Afghan province of Badakhshan, bordering Tajikistan. In the past six months, according to Serenko, it has significantly expanded its ranks.

“If earlier the number of militants in this group was in the dozens, now it is in the hundreds,” wrote Serenko.

“Jamaat Ansarullah was able to solve problems with its financing, as well as with weapons—its militants gained access to modern American and NATO armaments left in Afghanistan in August 2021.” That was when the US and its allies, tails between their legs, ignominiously fled from Afghanistan, after a twenty-year slaughter and a failed twenty-one trillion dollar military adventure.

The Jamaat Ansarullah suicide bombers also originate from other post-Soviet countries; their training takes place in a special madrassa located in Nusay District (Darwaz-i-Bala) of Badakhshan Province.

Alexander Bortnikov, Director of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB), has stated that “a “belt of instability” is being created on the “southern borders of the CIS”; Bortnikov reported that militants were being recruited from international terrorist organizations operating in Iraq, Syria and a number of other Asian and African countries, and were being transferred to northern Afghanistan.

A former Afghan spy chief claims that the Taliban regime now ruling Afghanistan is ambitiously exploring options to obtain tactical nuclear weapons.

Now we are talking. Suicide bombers are like mosquitoes in western society: they can cause damage but a SWAT team can just swat them away. Nuclear weaponry (including a simple-to-build “dirty bomb”) are another matter altogether. Even a small tactical nuke can take out a major part of a city – and drive the rest of the population to panic, thus ruining social cohesion and daily routines.

“The terrorists’ priority goal is to seize power in the countries of Central Asia, primarily in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, and include them in the so-called ‘global caliphate’,” Bortnikov added, alleging that “this is being done with the active participation of American and British intelligence services.”

This would be no surprise, considering how the western military adventurers behaved in Iraq, Libya and Syria: sponsor, fund, then destroy. Rinse & repeat.

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ISLAMABAD — The Taliban are pushing back against persistent global criticism of their Islamic governance in Afghanistan, claiming their supreme leader’s decrees, including a general amnesty, have promoted national reconciliation and put the war-torn country on the path to stability.

Zabihullah Mujahid, the chief Taliban spokesman, Wednesday posted a 40-minute promotional video documentary on social media, showcasing some of the decrees and touting their “good” outcomes more than two years into their male-only government, known as the Islamic Emirate.

However, the video did not discuss several other decrees issued by reclusive Taliban supreme leader, Hibatullah Akhundzada, that placed an indefinite ban on Afghan girls’ education beyond the sixth grade and barred most women from workplaces, including the United Nations and other aid groups.

“The general amnesty has reunited Afghans,” Mujahid wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter, with the video. He referred to the decree that reclusive Taliban chief Hibatullah Akhundzada first issued after the then-insurgent group reclaimed power from a U.S.-backed government in August 2021.

The amnesty covered all members and politicians associated with the ousted Afghan government and individuals who worked for the U.S.-led Western troops during their presence in Afghanistan for almost two decades.

While appearing in the documentary, Mujahid said that the amnesty decree was being enforced “effectively and seriously” nationwide by Taliban authorities, saying those found guilty of breaching it in “a few instances” were brought to justice and jailed.

Mujahid’s social media post came a day after a senior U.N. diplomat renewed allegations the Taliban’s “repressive policies and practices” were responsible for a deteriorating human rights situation in Afghanistan.

“There is a culture of impunity for torture and inhumane treatment in detention centers, as well as for human rights violations against former government officials and military personnel, despite promises made to the contrary,” Richard Bennett, the special rapporteur on the situation of Afghan human rights, told a U.N. meeting in New York on Tuesday.

Last August, a U.N. report accused Taliban fighters of committing more than 200 extrajudicial killings since taking power despite the general amnesty. It documented at least 800 alleged offenses, including arbitrary arrests and detention, ill-treatment, torture, and enforced disappearances of former Afghan officials and security personnel.

The Taliban at the time rejected the U.N. findings, declaring them unfounded and propaganda to malign their administration.

While speaking Tuesday, the U.S. representative told the U.N. meeting that the Taliban continue to issue edicts targeting women and girls, human rights defenders, women’s rights activists, journalists, former government officials, and other vulnerable Afghan groups, including religious minorities.

“Until the Taliban honors their word to respect the human rights of all Afghans, the international community must monitor the situation in Afghanistan with vigilance and hold the Taliban accountable,” said David Johnson, U.S. senior advisor for South and Central Asia.

Taliban officials have repeatedly rejected criticism of their policies, saying they are aligned with Afghan culture and Islamic law.

The Taliban documentary hailed Akhundzada’s decree on women’s rights, saying it prohibited forced marriages of women and ensured their right to inheritance, dowry, and fair treatment, among other rights, within Islamic law, or Sharia.

The video also highlighted “among others, the decree outlawing poppy cultivation in Afghanistan, which is known as the world’s largest producer of narcotics.

“Now we believe that we do not have even one percent of poppy cultivation in Afghanistan. God willing, in the coming days, we will have an Afghanistan free of drug cultivation and smuggling,” Mujahid said.

Recent media reports and satellite images backed by the U.N. and the U.S. have concluded that annual poppy cultivation “significantly” decreased in the country. However, critics remain skeptical about whether the gains are sustainable, noting that de facto Afghan authorities have not yet provided an alternative livelihood program for farmers affected by the ban in the impoverished nation.

The U.N. Office on Drugs and Crimes, in its report last month, revealed that Afghanistan had become the world’s fastest-growing producer of methamphetamine. It noted that the highly addictive stimulant is mainly made from legally available substances or extracted from the ephedra plant, which grows in the wild.

The Taliban documentary commentator echoed its government’s assertions that Akhundzada’s decrees “are based on the demands of a healthy and Islamic society and raised the hopes of Afghans for a better future.”

No foreign government has recognized the Taliban government over human rights concerns and their treatment of Afghan women.

Source: Voice of America

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The Tajik-Kazakh business forum will take place in Dushanbe on September 12. This was reported by the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Tajikistan.

According to published information, the Kazakh delegation will include representatives of the private sector from various industries. Including the food industry (production of oil, flour, pasta, confectionery, meat products), agriculture (animal feed), manufacturers of telecommunications equipment, transformers, fertilizers, diesel engines, metal structures, specialists in the mining and geological exploration industries.

In total, 15 Kazakh companies will take part in the business forum.

Earlier, on August 25, President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon made a working visit to Astana, where he met with the head of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.

The leaders discussed issues of trade and economic cooperation, transport, logistics and investment.

Source: EA Daily

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An earthquake of magnitude 5.2 on the Richter Scale hit Afghanistan’s Fayzabad on Sunday, the National Centre for Seismology (NCS) reported.

The tremors were felt at 18:53:18 (UTC 05:30). No casualties have been reported as yet.

The depth of the earthquake was registered at 85 Km, according to the NCS. Its epicentre was found at latitude: 36.16°N and longitude: 71.20°E respectively.

“Earthquake of Magnitude:5.2, Occurred on 06-08-2023, 18:53:18 IST, Lat: 36.16 & Long: 71.20, Depth: 85 Km, Location: 119km SSE of Fayzabad, Afghanistan,” the NCS tweeted.

No reports of material damage have surfaced as of now.

An earthquake of magnitude 5.8 jolted Afghanistan on Saturday as well, according to the National Center for Seismology.

It took place at 21:31:48 IST, at a depth of 181 Km.

According to NCS, the epicentre of the quake was found at Latitude: 36.38 and Longitude: 70.77, respectively.

“Earthquake of Magnitude:5.8, Occurred on 05-08-2023, 21:31:48 IST, Lat: 36.38 & Long: 70.77, Depth: 181 Km, Location: Hindu Kush Region, Afghanistan,” the NCS tweeted.

Source: Hindustan Times

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Marweh Attai, 18, was sitting in her Grade 11 math class in 2021 when she saw the end of her life as she knew it draw near.

Attai heard gunfire and, when she looked out the window, saw explosions. 

“We knew that this is going to end pretty soon, and these schools are going to be shut, and we’re gonna be imprisoned in our houses pretty soon,” Attai told The Early Edition host Stephen Quinn.

That was May 2021. Three months later, the Taliban took power and shut down schools for girls and restricted the rights of women. 

Earlier this year, the Taliban confirmed it will ban women’s beauty salons in Afghanistan because they offered services forbidden by Islam. 

The ruling was the latest curb on the rights and freedoms of Afghan women and girls, following edicts barring them from education, public spaces and most forms of employment.

“Imagine you wake up one day, and you can’t go to school anymore. You cannot work. You can’t even leave the house without a male family member,” Attai said.

“I felt truly helpless. It’s just very hard being at home, having your hopes crushed. You know your future is stolen.”

‘Transformative journey’

Today, Attai is one of 13 Afghan women scholars who have successfully completed their first full year of education in B.C. 

They are here with the support of Women Leaders of Tomorrow, a Vancouver-based non-profit organization that advocates for Afghan women and girls’ education and empowerment.

“These courageous individuals were denied the right to education due to their gender, but through the support of WLOT, they have embarked on a transformative journey toward a brighter future,” the organization said in a written statement.

Attai recently completed Grade 11 at Crofton House, an elite private school in Vancouver. She will stay there for Grade 12 and hopes to complete her post-secondary education in B.C. 

‘Hard and unacceptable’

Habiba Nazari, 24, is also in Vancouver, studying interdisciplinary applied science at the University of British Columbia. She also spoke with The Early Edition.

Nazari completed her bachelor’s degree in 2019 and was working with different organizations supporting women’s rights. 

She left for Kazakhstan five days before the Taliban took over. 

“The day I heard that the Taliban took the capital of Afghanistan, all I was thinking was about the women,” she said. 

“The woman’s situation in Afghanistan is pretty hard and unacceptable for us.”

Source: Canadian Broadcasting Corporation

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AKIPRESS.COM – Situation in Afghanistan arouses particular concerns, President Sadyr Japarov said during the first Central Asia-Gulf Cooperation Council in Jeddah.

“We believe the international community should not leave Afghanistan and long-suffering people in isolation. It is necessary to continue providing humanitarian aid to people of Afghanistan and to support the projects that will allow to reconstruction economy of Afghanistan,” President Japarov said.

“We are following the situation in Palestine, Yemen, Syria, Sudan, Ukraine with concerns and hope for the soonest resolution of conflicts in these countries,” President Japarov stated.

“The Kyrgyz Republic firmly believes any conflict should be resolved only by political and diplomatic means at the table of negotiations on the basis of universally accepted principles and international law norms,” the President said.

Source: Akipress

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A Kamaz-type truck driver was killed when it overturned after slipping off the road, according to police spokesperson Ghulam Ali Javid.

He further said that two persons were injured when a Four-Runner-type vehicle toppled in the Raqil Tamzan area of the Pato district. 

Two people were killed earlier, and eight others were injured in a traffic accident in the eastern province of Wardak. 

According to provincial officials, a mini-bus was overturned due to reckless driving resulting in several casualties. All the injured, including women and children, were transferred to the local hospital for medical treatment.

In a similar accident in the Kapisa province of Afghanistan, six persons were killed, and nine others were injured. 

Reckless driving, inadequately constructed roads, a lack of the rule of law, and poorly maintained vehicles have increased traffic accidents nationwide.

Source: Khaama

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The medical staff at Takhar Provincial Hospital recorded three cases of Congo fever, also known as Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, in the previous month, one of which resulted in patient death, reported Khaama Press.

The other two were reportedly transferred to the infectious diseases hospital in Kabul for medical care.

Officials said 91 people in Afghanistan had contracted the illness the preceding week.
Authorities said that seven deaths have occurred this summer so far. The officials also stated that they are working to halt the spread of the illness, reported Khaama Press.

“We are fully prepared because this disease is not new, and we have better measures in Takhar provincial hospital than in the past,” said the director of Takhar Provincial Hospital, Hayatullah Emami.

Two Congo fever fatalities occurred last month in the Abu Ali Sinai Balkhi Hospital in Mazar-e-Sharif City, while 10 confirmed cases were reported in Faryab and Jawzjan.

Especially during slaughter, ticks can transfer the virus known as Congo fever from animals to people. Fever, heartburn, diarrhoea, internal and external bleeding, neck ache, and eye pain are the disease’s main symptoms, Khaama Press reported.

Congo fever outbreaks are dangerous for public health services because the virus is difficult to treat and prevent, can create epidemics, has a high case fatality rate (10-40%), and may cause outbreaks in hospitals and other healthcare institutions.

Medical professionals, people who work in the health industry, and those who have contact with meat and animals are at risk of contracting the disease.

Earlier in May, the health department of Afghanistan’s Balkh province reported that in the past week, two people have died from the Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) in

Afghanistan’s northern region, Afghanistan-based TOLO News reported.
A total of ten positive cases of CCHF have been recorded in the region, according to TOLO News.

CCHF is a widespread disease caused by a tick-borne virus (Nairovirus).

Local Balkh officials said that incidents of this illness were rising in the country’s north, and they urged religious leaders and the media to warn people about the dangers associated with the disease’s spread.

Source: The News Mill

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“The primary reason is that international coal prices have dropped, making it more viable for cement companies to import it than procure Afghan coal,” explains Fahad Rauf, Head of Research at Ismail Iqbal Securities. “The savings companies are set to make must be viewed in the context of the North and South regions. This is because Afghan coal is more economical for players in the North due to lower transportation costs compared to players in the South,” emphasises Mustafa Mustansir, Director of Research and Business Development at Taurus Securities.

Regional division of cement manufacturers

By producers in the northern region, we mean companies located in the northern region of Pakistan’s cement sector. The sector is composed of 16 companies divided into two regions: North and South. The North covers areas of Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Azad Jammu and Kashmir whilst the South includes areas of Sindh and Balochistan.

Companies in the South are located near ports and bear significantly lower transportation costs compared to companies in the North. However, companies in the North have better access to exports to Afghanistan and India.

Why did Afghanistan slash the cost of its coal exports?  

“After the tumultuous Russia-Ukraine war, the price of international coal futures contracts soared, compelling cement players in Pakistan to switch to Afghan coal due to their inability to import coal,” elucidates Fahad Rauf, Head of Research at Ismail Iqbal Securities. 

A futures contract is a legal agreement to buy or sell a particular commodity or asset at a predetermined price at a specified time in the future. Futures contracts are the primary instruments of acquiring commodities in the international market. The Russo-Ukraine conflict exerted upward pressure in two distinct ways. Firstly, European countries frantically sought to diversify their coal supply chains away from Russia and consequently delved deeper into other international coal markets, driving up the price of futures contracts. 

Moreover, as European gas futures prices skyrocketed due to the unavailability of Russian gas, European countries transitioned their power grids from gas to coal, thereby creating an even greater demand for non-Russian coal. All of this naturally also drove up the price of Richards Bay Coal from South Africa, which is the primary source of Pakistan’s coal imports. 

In all of this Pakistan found itself compelled to look towards Afghanistan for coal imports. In a shrewd move, Afghanistan seized the opportunity to increase the export duties it levied on coal exports, capitalising on the supply shortage. Coal imports from Afghanistan are estimated to have doubled since the Taliban took over, netting Afghanistan a staggering $160 million despite their increased duties.

However, in 2023, the tides turned as European gas contract prices plummeted, prompting European countries to revert back to gas and subsequently causing the price of coal futures contracts to collapse. Afghan coal was not immune to this international downward pressure.

“The crux of the matter is that coal futures contracts skyrocketed from a mere $50 during Covid-19 to a staggering $350 during the conflict. The Europeans voraciously bought all the gas and coal they could get their hands on and overdid it. Then Afghan coal production surged when prices rallied, and they imposed an export duty to generate revenue,” Yousuf Farooq, ex-Director of Research at Topline Securities and independent analyst, articulates succinctly.

“Afghan coal prices had already commenced their downward trajectory for the last month,” states Mohammad Aitazaz Farooqui, Head of Research at Providus Capital. “Some manufacturers had already ordered Richards Bay coal which is now more economical than Afghan coal. However, due to letter of credit restrictions, limited quantities are being imported. Afghan suppliers had been capitalising on the situation and charging a premium,” Farooqui adds.

“Now, as things have eased up a bit on the letters of credit front, companies would opt for imported coal, which makes more economic sense,” adds Rauf. “Letters of credit have started opening so ships are arriving at Pakistan International Bulk Terminal Limited. The Afghans are unable to sell because of the duty. So they reduced the export taxes to match imports from Richards Bay,” adds Farooq.

What sort of savings  are cement manufacturers looking at? 

“Cement players in Pakistan could see a significant drop which would increase margins for cement companies substantially,” came as an alert to informed investors from Chase Securities. The notification, however, did not highlight the exact savings companies might be making. The exact saving is indeed  elusive. However, Profit has taken the initiative to delve into various scenarios, or at least had our sources do the intricate maths for us.

According to Farooq’s astute calculations, “Cement margins are poised to expand significantly because of this. Cement players use an average of 130 kgs of coal per tonne. So cement margins will increase by around Rs. 750/tonne. Cement profit before tax in 3QFY23 was between Rs. 2,000-3,000/tonne. So this impact would be significant. Coal prices during 3QFY23 were around Rs. 56,000 per tonne and are currently hovering around Rs. 48-50,000 (Afghan coal). So the combined impact of the price drop in coal and the duty reduction will be colossal.”

Farooqui elucidates his calculations: “In effect, it would translate into a Rs. 20-30/bag cost reduction for cement producers depending on the mix of coal used by each producer.” Whilst Rauf states, “Should they choose to retain the extra margin, roughly, it is equivalent to saving Rs. 35 per bag of cement, which means billions in savings for cement sector companies.”

Is there anything for Southern manufacturers? 

“No. They don’t have a high proportion of Afghan coal because of the distance. They were relying on imports from different destinations,” Farooqui articulates simply. “Mainly northern producers have been using Afghani coal due to their proximity to Afghanistan,” he adds. There is no additional cost advantage that Profit has been able to identify as of yet.

“Realistically, everyone stands to benefit. Richards Bay landed today at Rs. 38,000/tonne. So with transport to central Punjab, it’s roughly Rs. 44,000. Afghan coal after this $20 drop will be close to Rs. 44,000,” explains Farooq.

If anything, it’s just the Afghan government trying to ward off competition from South Africa. Northern Cement manufacturers being able to profit from this is just an unexpected windfall.

Source: Pt Profit

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