The problem of effective management of water and energy resources is one of the most important for the countries of Central Asia. This is due to the constantly growing population of the region, climate change, and, importantly, the need for further economic development of the Central Asian states.
According to an analysis by the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), water shortages in Central Asia will be especially acute in five years, and by 2040 the load on water resources in the region will increase by 2.8 times. That is why the issue of creating a water-energy consortium (WEC) by the Central Asian states, which should resolve not only economic, but also a number of political issues, primarily related to the insufficient level of regional cooperation, has once again been put on the agenda.
The problem of insufficient water resources in Central Asia has existed for decades. It is known that there are two deep rivers in the region – the Amudarya and the Syr Darya, which are not enough to satisfy all the needs of the countries located here, which, in addition, have different economic interests. Thus, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan generate electricity and are interested in storing water in the summer in order to generate electricity in the winter, while Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan grow agricultural products and therefore need water in the summer season. During the existence of the USSR, the issue of water and energy balance was resolved through directive management from Moscow on the basis of the so-called barter. It consisted in the fact that in the summer Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan supplied water to their neighbors, and in the winter Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan supplied them with fuel oil and gas for the operation of power plants. However, after 1991, the situation changed: countries began to take care of their own economic interests, simultaneously remembering each other’s old grievances. As a result, the Soviet barter system was destroyed.
Despite the fact that back in 1992, the Central Asian states began to look for compromise solutions, signing various bilateral agreements and even creating some regional associations for joint management of water and energy resources, it turned out to be impossible to finally solve the problem in this format. The most significant event was the signing in 1998 by Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan of a trilateral agreement on the use of water and energy resources in the Syr Darya basin. The document provided for “coordination and adoption of [joint] decisions on the passage of water,” as well as the rejection of unilateral actions that could harm other parties to the agreement.
At the same time, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan pledged to compensate Kyrgyzstan for the discharge of water “in an equivalent volume of energy resources (coal, gas, heating oil, electricity), as well as other products (work, services) or in monetary terms as agreed.” At the same time, the heads of countries instructed the governments to prepare an intergovernmental agreement on the creation of an International Water and Energy Consortium.
However, over the years since then, the situation has not changed radically, and countries, due to financial issues, began to violate the agreements reached. The situation was aggravated by the fact that in 2009 Kyrgyzstan suspended its participation in the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS), which was one of the most important platforms for solving water problems in the region, and in 2016 it completely froze its membership in the organization.
At the same time, it cannot be said that the Central Asian countries did not try to change the current situation, relying on the agreements of 1998 and primarily in the area of creating the WEC. Another attempt to speed up the process was made by Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan in July 2003, and a year later the general “Concept for creating an interstate water-energy consortium” was approved. However, even after this, things did not come to the signing of a final agreement on the WEC. Even the involvement of the UN and various international financial institutions could not help solve the problem.
The seriousness of the current situation in the Central Asian countries, of course, is well understood. That is why the idea of creating a consortium did not go anywhere, and Kazakhstan turned out to be the main initiator of its promotion. In 2018, the then Kazakh leader Nursultan Nazarbayev noted that the time had come to “automate the system of management, distribution, accounting and monitoring of water resources in the Aral Sea basin,” including within the framework of the creation of the WEC. At the same time, he absolutely correctly pointed out that such a mechanism “will ensure transparency in the use of water by countries and strengthen mutual trust,” and therefore it is necessary to focus on the implementation of regional projects.
Representatives of other Central Asian countries subsequently made similar statements, but again things did not go beyond conversations. True, in recent years it has been possible to strengthen bilateral interaction between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, as well as Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, including on issues of joint financing of the construction of Rogunskaya hydroelectric power station and two hydroelectric power stations on the Zeravshan River. In addition, it was decided to restore the parallel operation of national energy systems through the United Energy System of Central Asia.
In the current situation, Astana tried to involve even the European Union in solving the problem, calling on Brussels to join in the creation of the WEC, including through its financing. This year, the new head of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, again reminded everyone of the need to create a consortium “taking into account the interests of all countries in the region in the fields of irrigation, hydropower and ecology.” In this regard, he once again proposed developing a work plan for the introduction of a unified automated system for accounting, monitoring, management and distribution of water resources in the Aral Sea basin. Earlier it became known that it was planned to develop the water balance of the Syrdarya and automate interstate hydraulic structures.
2023, apparently, may well become a turning point in the creation of the WEC. This is primarily due to the fact that recently there has been a strengthening of regional cooperation in Central Asia, which has opened up additional opportunities for reformatting relationships, including on the issue of jointly solving problems of water and energy resource shortages. In particular, in July it became known that Kazakhstan included the development of the WEC in its Concept for the development of a water resources management system for 2023-2029. At the same time, the head of the Kazakh Foreign Ministry, Murat Nurtleu, spoke at the Asian Forum on Security and Cooperation, where he again proposed creating a consortium to “ensure fair and rational distribution of water resources in the region,” which, according to Astana, will help not only overcome water shortages, but also “ prevent possible conflicts in the future.”
At the same time, international structures, primarily the EDB, became more active in this direction. Back in March, at the UN Water Conference in New York, the organization presented five measures that could solve the problems of regulating the water and energy complex of Central Asia. In particular, it was proposed to hold a “constructive open discussion regarding the system of general principles for regulating the EEC of Central Asia with their subsequent agreement.” In addition, it was noted that the search for solutions needs to be carried out not only within the framework of already established institutions, but also to form a new mechanism for coordinating decisions on water resource management and electricity flows in the region. In this regard, the EDB proposed creating an International Water and Energy Consortium in the form of either a full-fledged international organization, or through “the creation of project consortia for a specific investment project.”
At the same time, the latter option is seen by EDB analysts as more acceptable, since it will allow for faster construction and more efficient operation of large hydraulic projects. In addition, it was proposed to direct more resources to conduct interstate and intersectoral research work and, in particular, to consider the possibility of creating an International Research Center for the EEC of Central Asia. And all this must have a stable structure of overall financing and management, since without this it will not be possible to solve the current problems in the region. In this regard, as it became known in November, the EDB reported that it was ready to invest more than $400 million in the development of the water and energy complex of Central Asia in the next three years, including in the modernization of the current irrigation infrastructure of the region.
The progress that has emerged today in the process of creating the EEC suggests that the Central Asian countries, with the support of international financial structures, are ready to take a serious step towards the implementation of this idea. It seems that all interested parties have come to realize the need to stop just exchanging opinions and finally begin to put into practice everything that they have been talking about for decades. Not only the issue of water resource management, but also the overall stability of the entire region depends on this.
Source: Asiais
