Russian experts named the reasons.
Since the beginning of this year, the Tajik currency has gradually depreciated against the US dollar and the common European currency, while simultaneously strengthening against the Russian ruble.
According to the official rate of the National Bank of Tajikistan, from January 1 to today (February 10), the somoni has fallen in price by 1.8% against the dollar – from 10.20 somoni per 1 dollar to 10.38 somoni.
During this period, the exchange rate of the local currency against the euro fell more noticeably – by 2.9% (from 10.92 to 11.18 somoni).
Somoni against the Russian currency since the beginning of the year, on the contrary, has strengthened by 1.4% – from 144 somoni per 1,000 rubles to 142 somoni.
10:02 January 3
True, in contrast to the smooth change in the ratio of somoni to the dollar and the euro, during this time there were sharp jumps in one direction or another with the ruble exchange rate. For example, in mid-January, 1000 rubles cost almost 150 somoni.
It should be noted that last year for the Tajik currency was quite unusual – the somoni strengthened against all the above currencies: the official exchange rate of the somoni against the dollar increased by 9.4%, against the euro – by 14.8%, against the ruble – by 3.7% .
The most demanded foreign currency in Tajikistan has traditionally been the US dollar. However, as a result of the transition of Tajikistan and Russia in bilateral trade in 2022 from the dollar to the ruble, the demand for the American currency in the republic has significantly decreased. The fact is that about a third of imports of goods and products come from Russia.
There is no deficit of the ruble in the foreign exchange market of Tajikistan, as was the case with the dollar, since the Russian currency enters the republic every day in large volumes through remittances from labor migrants.
Ruble money transfers in Tajikistan, according to the instructions of the NBT, since 2016 are issued exclusively in Tajik currency with conversion at the time of receipt of the transfer. Accordingly, the stronger the exchange rate of the ruble against the somoni, the more money the families of labor migrants will receive at the transfer points and vice versa.
Why is the ruble depreciating?
Meanwhile, after yesterday’s sharp fall in the ruble against the dollar and the euro, Russian experts predict that this trend will continue until the end of February.
08:00 January 30
“On Thursday, February 9, the ruble weakened against the dollar and the euro. Thus, the rate of the “American” exceeded the mark of 73 rubles, and the “European” – 78 rubles. Both currencies last reached such high values in Russia at the end of April last year,” writes MK .
TeleTrade chief analyst Mark Goykhman believes that the consequences of export restrictions have begun to appear – an embargo on the supply of oil and petroleum products to the EU, price ceilings for them for other areas of trade, as well as a decrease in gas sales abroad.
The head of the analytical department of AMarkets, Artem Deev, explains the depreciation of the ruble by a sharp decrease in the income of the Russian Federation from the export of goods (by 3.5 times in January of this year compared to January 2022).
“This affects the dynamics of the ruble, which will continue to weaken as problems with export supplies grow. Probably, during February, the dollar will be 76-78 rubles, and the euro will rise to 80 rubles,” the expert concluded.
Source: asiaplustj
